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After months of games, the ups and downs of conference play and a wild NCAA Tournament, it all comes down to two teams on Monday night.
Kansas and North Carolina are both college basketball powerhouse programs, and in the season’s final game one of them will add to their storied histories with another national title. The Jayhawks, the lone No. 1 seed to make the Final Four, are looking for their first national title since 2008. The Tar Heels have won three titles since then, most recently in 2017, and after taking down rival Duke in the semifinals they’re looking to become the first No. 8 seed to win it all since Villanova shocked Georgetown in 1985.
Oddsmakers expect Kansas to earn coach Bill Self his second national, but the margins are thin. The Jayhawks opened as 4.5-point favorites and have largely remained in that range, with the game total floating around 153 points.
With a bevy of bets available and any number of variables to consider, our top college basketball analysts, Thomas Casale (TC) and Vaughn Dalzell (VD), examined six burning questions heading into Monday’s championship game - including their top play and who they think will win it all.
Odds are opening lines courtesy of PointsBet
1. What has to go right for underdog North Carolina to pull off the outright upset?
TC: The Tar Heels like to play fast and have done a good job of getting opponents to play at their pace throughout the tournament. Kansas also likes to get out and run, ranking 65th in adjusted tempo. However, the Jayhawks probably don’t want to run up and down the court with UNC all game long. The Tar Heels are averaging 82.2 points per game in the NCAA Tournament and have killed their opponents in transition. Look for North Carolina to push the pace from the start and rely on guards Caleb Love and RJ Davis to finish at the rim. If those two have a big game, UNC likely cuts down the nets.
VD: The Tar Heels’ defense will be critical in this matchup, but more importantly UNC will have to match Kansas offensively. Villanova could not get much of anything going against Kansas from the start of Saturday’s semifinal, especially when it came to motion on offense.
Led by guards like Caleb Love and RJ Davis, UNC boasts an athletic back court that can create its own shot and attack the basket. Villanova struggled attacking the rim because the Wildcats rely on most of their points from beyond the arc and from the free-throw line. UNC is an offense that spreads its points out much more, and the Tar Heels would love to play at a pace similar to how Kansas played Villanova.
2. After cruising past Villanova on Saturday, what could go wrong for the favored Jayhawks?
TC: If this game is close in the second half, free throw shooting could come into play and that favors North Carolina. Kansas ranks 162nd in free throw shooting percentage, while UNC ranks 32nd. Also, the Tar Heels don’t foul much. North Carolina ranks eighth in college basketball in opponents’ free throw attempts per game. Foul shooting was key in North Carolina’s win over Duke. The Blue Devils shot just 12 of 20 from the line in a game that went down to the final seconds. If the Jayhawks aren’t hitting their free throws, it could cost them a championship.
VD: The last 60 minutes of basketball for Kansas has been magnificent. The Jayhawks drilled Miami in the second half of their Elite 8 matchup and laid the smack down on Villanova in the Final Four. The offense has been electric, and against a defense like North Carolina, Kansas could obviously have a field day.
However, if UNC can match Kansas’ shooting like the Tar Heels did against Duke, then Kansas is in trouble. The Jayhawks are shooting 47/38/64 splits over the last three games compared to the Tar Heels’ 41/32/68 splits. After jumping out to an early lead against Villanova, a letdown game offensively is one of the only ways Kansas can give UNC a major advantage.
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3. What matchup are you most interested in watching?
TC: Both of these teams have big front lines, but the game is going to be decided by guard play. Caleb Love has been sensational in the NCAA Tournament, and after a slow start Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji erupted for 39 points in the last two games while shooting 8 of 9 from three-point range. Love has been close to unstoppable while getting into the lane during the tournament and comes in averaging 20 points per game. Whichever player has the better game will go a long way toward determining the national champion.
VD: Armando Bacot (UNC) vs. David McCormack (Kansas). Heavyweight title between two of the best big men in the country. Bacot made history for UNC, recording five straight double-doubles in the tournament, with 15.4 PPG and 16.8 RPG averages in the tournament. McCormack has averaged 12.8 PPG and 5.6 RPG, but came alive with 15 points against Miami and 25 versus Villanova. With the way these two bigs are playing, we could see plenty of free throws down low for both squads.
4. Who is a potential X-factor?
TC: The X-factor for Kansas all season has been David McCormack, and that won’t change against North Carolina. McCormack has been a beast in Kansas’ two most recent wins over Miami and Villanova, scoring 40 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. However, that was against smaller front lines. McCormack can sometimes get pushed around by more physical low post players like Armando Bacot. Bacot hurt his ankle late against Duke, so it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent healthy for this game. Either way, McCormack can’t disappear like he has at times during the season or the Jayhawks will be in trouble.
VD: McCormack makes the difference for Kansas. As talented as Ochai Agbaji is for the Jayhawks, having an elite big man makes a difference for most teams. UNC has the size to compete with Kansas, so McCormack will need to repeat a 15-plus point performance (and stay out of foul trouble) in order to give the Jayhawks their best chance to win.
5. What is your best bet for the game?
TC: Caleb Love Over 15.5 Points
Love is averaging 20 points per game in the NCAA Tournament and has gone over this number in 10 of his last 14 games overall dating back to the regular season. Both of these teams play fast, ranking in the top 65 in adjusted tempo. Expect a lot of possessions in this game and that will give Love plenty of scoring opportunities. Love has scored 72 points on 61 field goal attempts over the last three games. In the final game of the season, look for UNC to lean heavily on Love to push the ball in transition and get to the rim. Love should go over this number for the fourth time in six tournament games.
VD: Ochai Agbaji Over 16.5 points (-122) and Top Point Scorer (+380)
We talked about Agbaji on our Twitter Spaces Saturday, and the value he held for Most Outstanding Player at +500. After 21 points against Villanova while shooting 6 of 8 from the field (6 of 7 from three-point range), he is now the favorite at +140.
Agbaji has scored 11, 15, 5, 18 and 21 points in his five tournament games and there is a chance he could go off for 20 points or more. He scored 37 and 24 against Texas Tech, 29 on Michigan State and 27 against Baylor - he is used to balling in big games.
On the season, Agbaji is 26-12 to the Over 16.5 points (68.4%) and the Tar Heels’ defense is a positive matchup for him. UNC does not force many turnovers and allowed Duke to attempt 20 free throws and take 22 shots from beyond the arc.
6. Who cuts down the nets in New Orleans?
TC: Kansas. I bet the Jayhawks to win it all back in early October, and I’m going to ride them in the title game. This is going to be a competitive, entertaining game but I think Kansas will get more key defensive stops down the stretch. Great run by UNC, but the Tar Heels come up just short.
VD: UNC. While I want to see Tom cash on his Kansas future and I am a Jeannette Jayhawk, meaning I have a make-believe tie to Jayhawk teams, the bottom line is that UNC is just as talented as Kansas and have the size to rival the Jayhawks. Kansas was much larger than Texas Southern, Creighton, Miami and Villanova. UNC is the 31st-tallest team in the country, which is bigger than everyone that Kansas has faced outside of Providence in the tournament. They’re also a superior offensive squad to any of Kansas’ five previous opponents. I expect a dogfight down to the last possession.
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