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The Horseshoe plays host to quite possibly the ultimate match-up of extremes when Ohio State and the nation’s #1-ranked offense (48.8pts/gm) host Iowa and their #3-ranked defense (9.8pts/gm) at 12P Eastern. It is one of five games pitting Big Ten foes against each other.
Rutgers also kicks off at Noon Eastern against Indiana as they continue to search for their first conference win of the season.
Northwestern visits College Park at 3:30P Eastern for a date with the somewhat surprising Maryland Terrapins. At the same time, the Wisconsin Badgers look to right the ship but face a stiff challenge at home from the Purdue Boilermakers.
The schedule concludes under the lights in Happy Valley at 7:30P Eastern as Penn State hosts the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
As they have every week of the BIG Ten this season, the NBC Sports EDGE Analysts are back to serve up their favorite plays for this week in the Big Ten.
Week 8 Plays:
Iowa @ Ohio State: Ohio State 1Q -7
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
No idea why this is not -7.5 or -8 but getting OSU by 7 points in the first quarter at home seems like a gimmie.
Iowa’s offense is putrid behind Spencer Petras. Iowa should struggle to score a touchdown in this game and that’s not from, but the sports books. The Hawkeyes Team Total is 9.5 for this outing, so I have strong doubts they score at all in the first quarter.
Ohio State leads the country with 16.3 points per game in the first quarter and Iowa is 52nd at 6.2, plus 10 total points in the first quarter of two road games (@ Illinois, Rutgers).
Over the previous two games, Iowa managed a field goal versus Illinois in the first quarter but did not score in the first half versus Michigan. I like the chances Ohio State leads by at least seven points in the first 15 minutes and holds Iowa scoreless in the process.
Iowa @ Ohio State: Ohio State 1Q -7
Zachary Kruger (@ZK_FFB)
I agree with Vaughn. This is the top play on the Big Ten board this weekend as one of the nation’s best offenses faces off against one of the nation’s worst offenses.
Ohio State enters Saturday as 30-point favorites against the woeful Hawkeyes and needs just eight points to cover in the first quarter of this one. Iowa, who prefers to win games by not scoring points, ranks 126th in the nation in points per game (14.7) and is averaging just 2.3 points in the first quarter when playing on the road. At home, Ohio State is averaging 16.8 points in the first quarter — the fourth-most of any team in the nation.
If Iowa is to cover this first-quarter spread, they will likely do so on the back of their defense, which ranks 14th in the nation in overall success rate at 35.8%. However, Ohio State’s defense is ranked fourth in the nation in defensive success rate (32.0%) and could wreak havoc on an Iowa team that has not moved the ball all season.
I will put my money on the Buckeyes’ defense forcing a few punts in the first quarter, and C.J. Stroud and company turning them into some easy points in a game that will not be close for long.
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Iowa at Ohio State: Ohio State Team Total OVER 38.5
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
There are probably safer totals to take in the Big Ten than an Over against the #3 scoring defense in college football. It’s true. Iowa only allows 9.8 points per game, but the most prolific offense they have played so far this season is Michigan. The Wolverines hung 27 on the Hawkeyes. The way Ohio State hates Michigan, if the Wolverines hang 27 on an opponent, they want double.
This will be the war of attrition. Ohio State possesses the #1 scoring offense in college football and has only been held to under 45 points one time this season. That was in a top-five match-up with Notre Dame to start the season.
After watching Michigan’s Blake Corum gash this Hawkeyes’ defense for 133 yards, I am sure TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams will have a field day. Ohio State still has the Heisman front-runner in CJ Stroud and a complete set of headline-grabbing wide receivers in Jaxson Smith- Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Should JSN not be good to go, expect Julian Fleming to be featured.
Ohio State lives for the number in front of their name. Their mission: beat teams and beat teams badly. I expect them to flex their muscles and score over 38.5 points this weekend.
Iowa at Ohio State:
Spencer Petras, QB - UNDER 147.5 Passing Yards
Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
Few units in all of college football have been as maligned as the Iowa offense that is averaging 14.7 points per game, a figure that drops to 12 PPG if you take out Iowa’s 27-0 shutout of lowly Nevada.
For his part, Petras has performed even worse this season than last year, going from a 75.4 NFL Passer Rating in 2021 to a 67.2 NFL PR in 2022. His 14-to-10 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play ratio is underwater, with Petras sinking to a 3-to-6 ratio. Iowa has lost to Illinois, Michigan, and Iowa State, while defeating South Dakota St., Nevada, and Rutgers.
HC Kirk Ferentz and his son, OC Brian Ferentz, have been getting assaulted at every media event with questions about the offense’s impotency. Heading into their clash with OSU, Iowa is coming off a bye where they had time to recalibrate what was not working offensively to try and get the team back on the winning track. The problem is, with Iowa 30 point underdogs, and Ohio State likely to score early and often, there is little reason to keep Petras in the game beyond the third quarter if they are at such a deficit, which means we will likely see backup QB Alex Padilla. What does Iowa have to lose by getting another QB reps in this likely blowout scenario in an attempt to do something…anything…to spark this offense?! With the likelihood of two quarterbacks taking snaps, I am fading the disappointing incumbent and betting on Petras not being able to clear 147.5 passing yards.
For more in-depth coverage of a full Saturday college slate of betting opportunities, tune in to the NBC Sports YouTube Q&A at 11A Eastern.
Enjoy another Saturday of Big Ten Football and enjoy the sweat!
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