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The 19th playing of the Armed Forces bowl features a branch of the military for the first time since 2018. Army looks to shake off a tough loss in the Army-Navy game by establishing the ground game, while the SEC’s Missouri Tigers will try and get their first bowl victory since 2014.
What: Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Who: Missouri (6-6, 3-5 SEC) vs. Army (8-4, Independent)
Where: University Park in Forth Worth, Texas
When: December 22 at 8:00 P.M. ET (ESPN)
Opening Line: Army -3.5 (O/U 60.5)
Current Line: Army -4 (O/U 57)
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Most recent bowl result: Missouri (2020 Music City Bowl canceled) lost to Oklahoma State, 38-33, in the 2019 Liberty Bowl. Army lost to West Virginia, 24-21, in the 2020 Liberty Bowl.
Missouri at a glance: Missouri continued to fight hard in the SEC East, finishing with a .500 record for the third straight year. The season started out rough, losing all of their games against P5 opponents in the first half of the season. A fairly close win against Vanderbilt seemed to kick them into gear however, and they managed to defeat South Carolina and Florida for a respectable end of the season that meant they would go bowling for the second straight year.
Army at a glance: Army followed up a strong 2020 with another good season in 2021. They started out 4-0, notably beating a very good Western Kentucky team. The wheels fell off a bit with a loss to Ball State, and while they did run Wisconsin and Wake Forest close (one of the best shootouts of the year) that was still three straight losses. They won their next four including a nice win at Liberty before getting shut down in the Army-Navy game which should have the Black Knights raring to prove themselves.
Key to the matchup: Both teams are going to run, run and run some more. Army is third in rushing yards per game in the entire NCAA, and they’ll wear you down with a bevy of backs (including the quarterback) until your defense is bruised and beaten. They’ve gained a whopping 75.1% of their yards on the ground, and had 10 players rush for at least 100 yards this season. Missouri on the other hand, has one star, but what a star he is. The name to know is running back Tyler Badie, who was a Doak Walker Award finalist this year. He’s averaging an absurd 134 yards per game on six yards per carry and his 1612 yards ranks third in the nation. He’s topped 200 yards rushing (that’s right, 200) on four separate occasions this year. The game plan for both teams are simple then. Establish the run, get an early lead and force the other team to rely on their passing game. Whichever team can do that will take home the win.
Best Bet: Army (-4). Army is a perfect 3-0 in the Armed Forces Bowl, and I think they keep that tradition. While both teams are going to focus on the ground, Army has the superior defense unit that can actually hope to limit Badie’s damage. On the other hand, Missouri (with a much tougher schedule, to be fair) has been one of the worst defenses in college football. Army’s loss to Navy is a major black eye, but Navy is better than their record suggests and have a solid D. I predict Army bounces back and covers by drowning Missouri under the weight of their run game, forcing Missouri QB Connor Bazelak (six picks in his last five games) into a mistake.
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