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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
This week, Auburn and Houston set to face off in the 15th annual Birmingham Bowl, which was previously called the Papa John’s Bowl (2006-2010) and the BBVA Compass Bowl (2011-2014) prior to being given its current name in 2015.
Both teams are set to make their second appearance in the bowl game, with Auburn winning its lone appearance in 2015, when they downed Memphis 31-10. Houston on the other hand dropped its lone Birmingham Bowl appearance in 2014 when they lost 41-24 to Vanderbilt.
This year, Houston hopes to break a four-game bowl losing streak, having not won a bowl game since defeating Florida State 38-24 in the Peach Bowl in 2015. Auburn on the other hand is 2-6 in its last eight bowl games, but had won five straight bowl games from 2006 to 2011 under head coaches Tommy Tuberville and Gene Chizik.
In what may feel like a home game for Auburn in this one, some postseason woes may give the Tigers trouble despite them being tabbed as 2.5 point favorites. Here’s a look at how this one could play out.
What: Birmingham Bowl
Who: Houston (11-2, 8-0 AAC) vs. Auburn (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
Where: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
When: Tuesday, December 28th, 12:00 PM EST (ESPN)
Opening line: Auburn -3.5 (O/U 52)
Current line: Auburn -2.5 (O/U 51.5)
Most recent bowl result: Auburn lost to Minnesota 31-24 in the 2020 Outback Bowl. Houston lost to Hawaii 28-14 in the 2020 New Mexico Bowl.
Auburn at a glance: Auburn opened this game as the favorites, and remain the favorites despite being down several players since the regular season drew to a close.
The Tigers were already planning on being without quarterback Bo Nix, whose season ended with an ankle injury back on November 14th in a loss to Mississippi State. Nix then decided to transfer to Oregon, but that didn’t bear any weight on how oddsmakers were projecting this game.
Shortly after Nix announced his intent to transfer, star running back Tank Bigsby announced his intent to enter the transfer portal, but then decided days later to remain at Auburn after a talk with head coach Brian Harsin.
Even with the return of Bigsby, Auburn will be without starting cornerback Roger McCreary and starting linebacker Zakobi McClain, along with starting offensive lineman Brodarius Hamm, as all three players are preparing for the 2022 NFL Draft. (For other opt outs in this game and others, be sure to checkout our bowl game opt out tracker.)
At a 6-6 record, Auburn has underwhelmed this season. They’ve been subpar offensively, ranking 63rd in success rate (43.2%) and 67th in points per drive (2.20). They averaged just 29.6 points per game overall, and were 63rd in yards per game (405.6), but struggled in games started by T.J. Finley.
Finley started the final two games of the season for Auburn, facing off against South Carolina and Alabama. In those games, Auburn failed to score more than 22 points, while Finley completed 34-of-58 passes for 325 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
Defensively, the Tigers rank 72nd in success rate against at 42.7%, but have struggled mightily against the pass, allowing a passing success rate of 45.3% (109th). Which could open the door for Houston to come away with an upset win.
Houston at a glance: In regards to Houston, the Cougars are living in a world opposite of Auburn. They rank 14th in the nation in points per game, and 57th in yards per game at 415.2. With an overall success rate of 43.1% on the season, Houston’s passing game has been particularly strong, ranking 18th in passing success rate at 47.1% and 17th in marginal passing efficiency 5.1%.
Quarterback Clayton Tune has thrown for 3,263 yards, 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing an impressive 68.5% of his passes. On passing downs, Tune and the Cougars are totaling a 35.1% success rate and are averaging 2.70 points per drive (25th).
Freshman running back Alton McCaskill, while not the most efficient back, did total 16 touchdowns on the season while rushing for 883 yards on 175 carries, averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
Defensively, Houston has been ferocious.
They do an excellent job at limiting opponents’ passing attacks, ranking sixth in passing success rate against (33.9%), and third in blitz down success rate at 18.2%. They also rank in the top-20 in sack rate (9.2%), pressure rate (37.7%) and passing down sack rate (12.6%).
It is worth noting that Houston will be without senior cornerback Marcus Jones, who has opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft. Jones was an All-American kick and punt returner for the Cougars this season, and was second-team all conference as a cornerback, where he totaled 47 tackles, five interceptions and 13 passes defended.
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Key to the matchup: When talking about this game what we are really talking about here is a solid offense and great defense in Houston, and an Auburn team who went 6-6 with the help of some starters they will now be without, particularly on defense. In a game that has a projected total of 52 points, Auburn is going to need to keep this game as close to the under as possible, because of it starts to go over, it’s likely because Houston’s offense overwhelmed Auburn and things started to get out of hand. Houston scored 30 or more points in 10 games this season, and topped 40 points seven times. Auburn on the other hand scored 30 or more points in just four games against FBS opponents.
Best Bet: Houston has the talent on both sides of the ball to win this one. Auburn had more talent on the team in the regular season than they do now, with several key players opting out for this game. And even with a full roster, the Tigers are a team that won six games to become bowl eligible. Auburn did not dominate opponents like they have in years before. The Tigers may be getting some extra credit here for being an SEC team compared to an AAC team like Houston, but that’s not going to sway me off of the Cougars. Auburn’s pass defense has struggled this season, and is now down key players and facing a Houston team that excels in throwing the ball. I’ve got Auburn on my upset radar in this one, and will be taking the Cougs and the points here.
Pick: Houston +2.5
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