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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
The Fiesta Bowl is one of the most revered bowls on the schedule and the matchup this year is fantastic. Two one-loss elite defensive teams in the Fighting Irish and the Cowboys. Both teams had playoff aspirations going into championship weekend but fell just short. Both teams have played in the game recently, with Notre Dame in 2016 and Oklahoma State in 2012. Who will take home the victory this time around?
What: Play Station Fiesta Bowl
Who: Notre Dame (11-1) vs. Oklahoma State (11-2, 8-1 Big 12)
Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
When: Saturday, January 1st at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opening line: Notre Dame -2.5 (O/U 44.5)
Current line: Notre Dame -2.5 (O/U 44.5)
Most recent bowl result: Notre Dame lost 31-14 to Alabama in the 2021 Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal). Okahoma State beat Miami (FL) 37-34 in the 2020 Cheez-It Bowl.
Notre Dame at a glance: The Fighting Irish were a better first half against Cincinnati away from making the College Football Playoff. Finishing at No. 5 in the final rankings, they had a fantastic season in what most considered a rebuilding year. Having only nine starters return, they had some bumps in the road early against Florida State and Toledo, but righted the ship. Jack Coan came in with little hype and prestige, but he was the steady hand for most of the season. The Irish tried out freshman QB Tyler Buchner but he struggled enough where they reverted back to Coan full time after the Virginia Tech game.
The calling card for the Irish has been trying to establish the run and taking advantage with play-action. They struggled early on to run the football, mainly because they were replacing four starting offensive linemen. Late in the season, the unit gelled and Kyren Williams started to take over games. Unfortunately for the Irish, both he and star safety Kyle Hamilton have opted out of the game for the NFL Draft. The offense will have to rely on backup Lee Suggs and the passing game. After losing starting receiver Avery Davis to a torn ACL, Kevin Austin and Michael Mayer will have to shoulder the load through the air, as their other three scholarship wide receivers are freshmen.
On defense, it’s the Isaiah Foskey show. Having not started before due to Daelin Hayes and Adetokounbo Ogundeji holding down those spots, Foskey notched 10 sacks and five forced fumbles after only amassing 4.5 sacks and no forced fumbles in his first two seasons. He is the driving force behind the Irish defense that ranks per SP plus.
Oklahoma State at a glance: The calling card for this team has been the defense. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles led one of the most impressive defenses in football. The Cowboys led the nation in sacks while ranking in the top five in sack rate on both passing and rushing downs, pressure rate and blitz success rate. They were able to accomplished all of this while being 77th in blitz rate in the nation. The tough part for the Cowboys is that Knowles will not be coaching the bowl game, as he took the defensive coordinator position at Ohio State.
On offense, the Cowboys want to establish the run. Senior RB Jaylen Warren is the star for the Cowboys having rushed for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns. The rushing game hasn’t been very efficient ranking 86th in success rate and 83rd in efficiency. They also like to take deep shots with Spencer Sanders utilizing play-action. Four receivers for the Cowboys, including leading receiver Tay Martin, have an average yards per target of 8.9 or higher.
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Key to the matchup: Which Spencer Sanders will we get? The biggest wild card in this game is Sanders. On the season, he has thrown 12 interceptions with six of those coming in the last two games. One of those games was against Oklahoma, where he threw two pretty bad interceptions, but led the team to a comeback victory. The best defense that they have faced this season was Baylor whose defense ranks 16th per SP+ and Sanders threw seven of his 12 interceptions across those two games, both of which were losses. The Irish have the 13th-ranked defense which will provide even more challenges to the mistake-prone Sanders.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -2.5. The Irish have been the more consistent team on the season, even against the spread. The Irish are third in the nation with a 9-3 ATS record this season but have won their last seven games. The Cowboys on the other hand are 9-3-1, but all of their wins came bookended with two losses at the beginning of the season and a loss and push to finish it out. The Irish’s 11th-ranked pressure rate and 16th-ranked havoc rate will be too much for the Cowboys to handle and the Irish should win this by 10+.
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