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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
UPDATE: The Holiday Bowl was canceled on Dec. 28 because of COVID-19 issues for the UCLA Bruins.
Played annually since 1978, the Holiday Bowl has become a mainstay in the college football bowl season, and at one point in time, was nearly synonymous with BYU. BYU appeared in each of the first seven Holiday Bowls, and has a team-high 11 appearances in the contest overall.
Now, in hopes of one day catching BYU for most Holiday Bowls played, NC State is set to appear in its first Holiday Bowl game this weekend against UCLA. Led by quarterback Nate Leary and a stout ACC defense, the Wolfpack hope to have enough to give a Chip Kelly-coached UCLA team a run for its money.
For the Bruins, their appearance in the Holiday Bowl marks their first return to any bowl game since 2017. The once-storied program fell on hard times from 2018-2020, going a combined 10-21 in Kelly’s first three years with the team. But in Year 4, Kelly’s plans for UCLA appear to have finally taken form.
Now with a bowl game berth, UCLA, Kelly and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson set their sites on their first bowl game win since January 2, 2015 when they defeated Kansas State 40-35 in the Alamo Bowl.
What: Holiday Bowl
Who: NC State (9-3, 6-2 ACC) vs. UCLA (8-4, 6-3 Pac-12)
Where: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
When: Tuesday, December 28, 8:00 PM EST (FOX)
Opening line: NC State -1 (O/U 60)
Current line: NC State -1.5 (O/U 60)
Most recent bowl result: NC State lost to Kentucky 23-21 in the 2021 Gator Bowl. UCLA lost to Kansas State 35-17 in the 2017 Cactus Bowl.
NC State at a glance: The Wolfpack have gotten through this season on the arm of quarterback Devin Leary, who has thrown for 3,433 yards, 35 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Running back Zonovan Knight rushed 140 times for 753 yards and three touchdowns, while also catching 21 passes for 156 yards. When it comes to offensive efficiency however, NC State’s passing offense has been the better crutch to lean on.
The Wolfpack rank 81st in the nation in passing success rate (40.7%) and 20th in passing marginal explosiveness (0.34) thanks in part to Leary, along with a receiving corps whose top three receivers are averaged 11.7 yards per reception on more.
Where NC State can really shake things up is on the defensive side of the ball. They rank third in the nation in success rate against (34.1%) and eighth in three-and-out percentage (41.5%), while excelling at stopping both the run and the pass. When it comes to stopping opponents on third down, NC State ranks first in the nation at getting team’s into long third down situations (59.8%) and are allowing the ninth fews points per drive at 1.40.
UCLA at a glance: As has come to be expected with most Chip Kelly coached teams, UCLA has an offense that ranks 16th in points per game (36.5) and 25th in yards per game (445.8). In terms of overall success rate, the Bruins rank 14th with a 48.5% success rate, but have a 51.2% success rate on the ground (11th).
Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 2,409 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions this season, while also rushing 110 times for 724 yards and another nine scores. Thompson-Robinson is every bit the type of quarterback we’ve come to expect from a Chip Kelly led team, while running back Zach Charbonnet (202/1,137/13) rounds out the dynamic duo that has kept UCLA’s offense moving.
Wide receiver Kyle Philips and tight end Greg Dulcich have combined for 101 receptions for 1,464 yards and 15 touchdowns, with both pass catchers operating in the short to intermediate parts of the field to keep drives alive.
Defensively, UCLA looks solid on the surface, allowing 26.8 points per game (56th) and 387.0 yards per game (57th), but advanced statistics suggest the Bruins’ defense is more middle of the road than we would think.
Opponents know how to keep drives alive against UCLA, as the Bruins rank 95th in offensive success rate against (44.9%) and 93rd in plays allowed per game (70.1). Opponents face optimal third down situations more often than not, as the Bruins rank 129th in third-and-short percentages and 88th in third-and-short success rate (78.6%).
Despite ranking seventh in the nation in blitzes per drop back (40.6%), UCLA does not generate much pressure up front. The Bruins are generating pressure on just 27.0% of its plays, and have a 4.6% sack rate on passing downs which ranks 120th.
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Key to the matchup: UCLA’s top-20 offense gets a shot at NC State’s top-25 defense, but the real question could come down to whether or not UCLA can stop NC State on the defensive side of the ball. NC State may have the less efficient offense on paper, but the Wolfpack have strung together an impressive resume of wins against tough ACC opponents like Clemson and Boston College, combining for 60 points against teams that allowed 15.0 points per game and 22.2 points per game, respectively. UCLA had a very generous schedule down the stretch, which included games against Colorado, USC and California, where they outscored inferior opponents 148-67. In games against Oregon and Utah, UCLA went 0-2 and was outscored 78-55, which included a 20-point loss to Utah.
Best Bet: NC State laying only a point in this one feels way off, especially when you account for some of the wins that they have on their resume. Defensively, the nightmares that the Wolfpack can create for opposing offenses cannot be stressed enough. They are a team that ranks top-10 in both success rate against and forced three-and-outs. NC State creates chaos at every level of the field for opposing offenses, ranking 13th in overall Havoc Rate (18.0%), which accounts for tackles for loss, passes intercepted/broken up and forced fumbles. Despite UCLA’s efficiency on offense, I’m not sure the Bruins have faced a defense like NC State outside of their game against Utah, which they lost in blowout fashion. I don’t think NC State is getting enough respect in this one, and will pick them to win and cover against UCLA.
Pick: NC State (-1)
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