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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
Mississippi State has faced Texas Tech before -- it’s been a rare occurrence but it has happened a handful of times. What has not happened and continues to add to the intrigue of this matchup, though, is the fact that it will be Bulldogs head coach Mike Leach‘s first time facing his former team and it’s safe to say there’s some tension there, because he hasn’t forgotten the school still owes him money.
The Bulldogs come into this matchup as the stronger overall team, playing in a setting that holds a special place in their hearts in the worst of ways after Mississippi State lost to Memphis in a close and controversial one with multiple officiating errors early in the season. Redemption and revenge become a factor in more ways than one.
What: Liberty Bowl
Who: Mississippi State (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)
Where: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee
When: December 28th at 6:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
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Opening line: Mississippi State -9.5 (O/U 59.5)
Current line: Mississippi State -9.5 (O/U 58.5)
Most recent bowl result: Mississippi State beat Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl (2020), Texas Tech lost to South Florida in the Birmingham Bowl (2017).
Mississippi State at a glance: The Bulldogs have lost some key players to opt outs like offensive lineman Charles Cross and cornerback Martin Emerson Jr., but this is still a team that brings a solid level of talent on both sides of the ball and has only become deeper this year as more and more players have hit their stride. Sophomore quarterback Will Rogers and the offense had some hiccups at the beginning of the season that have re-appeared in rare instances down the stretch, but when this unit is hot it can’t get much better. The Bulldogs have led the two biggest comebacks in school history with the power of the Air Raid and Rogers has found himself with some of the best numbers in the country, setting records within and beyond the program, including when he completed 92.3% of his passes in the 31-17 win over Kentucky earlier this year -- that’s good for the highest completion percentage in SEC history with a minimum of 30 attempts. The Bulldogs entered the year with one of the best secondaries and even though not all of its members will be present for this one, expect the rest of the unit to do itself proud and for the defense as a whole to come up with the same type of stops it has come up with in several important situations in 2021
Texas Tech at a glance: This is a team in transition in several aspects of the word -- the Red Raiders fired their head coach midseason and the staff will look much different come 2022. Promising transfer quarterback Tyler Shough out of Oregon was also injured leaving Tech to turn to the likes of DonoVan Smith, who has been mostly competent but has had some high highs and some low lows at the helm. There have been some positives for the Red Raiders as they’ve battled adversity, like playing No. 6-ranked Baylor closely, losing by just three points to the Bears in the season finale. But that doesn’t change the fact this team has been unable to finish the job and pull out the win as of late, losing four of its last five games of 2021.
Key to the matchup: Mississippi State’s defense has been mostly solid, but it has given up some key explosive plays throughout the year that have forced the team to stage a comeback effort for the ages -- and it’s not one that always ends up working out. As its yardage totals and some of its close final scores indicate, Tech is a team that can get things going offensively and could make the Bulldogs pay if taken too lightly. Not playing down to a lower opponent and limiting explosives will be key to a Mississippi State win.
Best Bet: Mississippi State (-9.5). This might be a big spread, but there’s also a clear difference in talent level and where these two teams sit at this point in the postseason. Mississippi State has stronger players, a much more solid coaching situation and has steadily gained upward momentum. Tech won’t be able to overcome its slump or its overall shakiness in several aspects to be highly competitive with the Bulldogs.
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