What: Outback Bowl
Who: Penn State (7-5, Big Ten 3-5) vs. Arkansas (8-4, SEC 4-4)
Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, FL
When: Saturday, January 1st at 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)
Opening line: Penn State -3.5 (O/U 46)
Current line: Arkansas -2.5 (O/U 48.5)
Most recent bowl result: Penn State beat Memphis 53-39 in the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic. Arkansas lost to Virginia Tech 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl.
Penn State at a glance: The Nittany Lions have not had the season that they had hoped for. After starting 5-0, they rose up to being ranked fourth in the nation but lost to third-ranked Iowa 23-20 after starting quarterback Sean Clifford got injured. They went 2-5 in their last seven games after Clifford’s injury mainly due to lack of QB depth behind him and his own struggles in overcoming his injury.
The offense mainly ran through wide receiver Jahan Dotson. He amassed 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns on 91 receptions. Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, he will not be playing in the bowl game, as is star EDGE rusher Arnold Ebiketie. Both of them opted out of the bowl game by announcing it on their own Twitter pages, as head coach James Franklin had said that he would not be disclosing that information. The passing game will run through sophomore WR Parker Washington. The running game, however barely averaged 100 yards per game with no player topping 500 yards on the season. Establishing the run could be a key to winning this game for the Nittany Lions, as the Razorbacks rank 70th in rush defense.
Arkansas at a glance: The Razorbacks offense has ran all year through the legs of KJ Jefferson and the dynamic ability of Treylon Burks. In the middle portion of the season, Jefferson was dealing with a knee injury that hindered him all throughout October. Once the knee healed, they won three of their last four with their only loss being a 42-35 shootout against Alabama. This isn’t the most talented team, but head coach Sam Pittman has these Razorbacks playing tough and fighting each and every game.
Key to the matchup: Who will replace Treylon Burks? The tough part about this game is that the Razorbacks will be without Burks. He opted out of this game to start preparing for the NFL Draft. Without Burks, Arkansas will be relying on a group of receivers who only have one player (Tyson Morris) with more than 20 receptions (21). If they are to win this game, someone is going to have to step up.
Best Bet: Arkansas -2.5. The opt-outs at receiver for both teams change the complexity of this game, as the line shifting earlier this week in favor of Arkansas dictates. It boils down to KJ Jefferson vs Sean Clifford and there isn’t any reason to have more confidence in Clifford. Arkansas -1.5 is far and away the best bet here.
