Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
Check out every single NBC Staff Bet for Bowl Season and tune into NBC’s College Football Show on Saturday at 11 AM ET to kickoff on YouTube!
Eric Froton (@CFFroton) and myself will host with a few special guests dropping their bets bets! See yinz there!
Troy vs UTSA (-2): O/U 56.5
Rumor out of Troy’s camp is that UTSA is the best and most dynamic offense they have seen so far this season... and I agree.
This has the potential to be a track meet between these two. UTSA scored at least 30 points in 12 of 13 games this season and Troy scored 27 or more in seven of 13 games.
The Trojans are 8-0 to the Over in their last eight Bowl Games and I see fireworks in what could be one of the most entertaining bowl games of the season. UTSA has a terrific rushing attack and dual-threat quarterback in Frank Harris and Troy has struggled versus mobile quarterbacks.
This spread was Troy -2 a few days ago and has flipped to UTSA -2. I lean the Road Runners, but the Over is one of my favorite bets of Bowl Season. Take the Over 55.5 up to 57.5.
Pick: UTSA vs Troy Over 55.5 (1.5u)
Kevorian Barnes O/U 60.5 Rushing Yards vs. Troy
Let’s run it back on Kevorian Barnes of UTSA.
Against North Texas, Barnes recorded 175 rushing yards on 28 attempts and one touchdown. Barnes has at least 54 rushing yards in seven-straight games and 64 or more yards in five of those contests.
Barnes received double-digit carries in six of those seven games and had a rush of 23 or more yards in five of seven.
Barnes totaled 100-plus rushing yards in four of his past seven games and also scored a touchdown in four out of seven (six total touchdowns).
NBC’s player prop model projects Barnes to rush for 129 yards and 1.3 touchdowns, so this looks like a line that is way too low. Seven out of 13 opposing running backs have hit over 60 rushing yards versus Troy this season and I think Barnes makes that eight of 14.
I played Barnes Over 60.5 Rushing Yards on DraftKings at -130 odds and sprinkled his Over 0.5 Rushing TD at +105 odds.
Pick: Kevorian Barnes Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (1.5u), Barnes Over 0.5 Rush TDs (0.25u)
Miami (OH) vs. UAB (-10.5): O/U 45.5
Miami is looking for two-straight Bowl wins under Chuck Martin after beating North Texas last season as a 2 point favorite, but now are a +11 point underdog with a different quarterback and a different offense.
The Red Hawks offense is ranked 117th in third-down conversion success and 91st in red zone offense. UAB is ranked 115th in red zone offense, but has a great pass defense at 24th nationally in passing yards per game.
This looks like a game with both teams preferring to run the ball. This is especially true for UAB since they have the nation’s leading rusher, Dewayne McBride, however he opted out.
I like the chances both offenses stall out a few times and opt for field goals or fourth-down attempts. UAB has stellar running backs behind McBride, but Miami has the best rushing defense in the MAC.
Neither team scares me through the air, so we will take an Under to kickoff Bowl Season.
I played the Under 44.5 and 45.5 at -110 odds.
Pick: Under 45.5 (0.5u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
