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Virginia at Syracuse (-10): O/U 54.0
Friday Night Lights! Virginia versus Syracuse! Let’s go!
Let’s start with the former OC of Virginia, Robert Anae, who is now at Syracuse. Anae could give Syracuse some pointers on how to slow down the Cavs, but honestly, there is plenty of film for that.
Virginia has struggled in its last two games versus Illinois and Old Dominion. Virginia only managed three points at Illinois and 16 points at home versus Old Dominion.
On the year, Virginia has a -3 turnover margin and ranks 123rd in red zone offense with a 63.6% conversion rate.
Virginia scored on seven of their 11 red zone attempts this season, making a field goal three times compared to four touchdowns.
Virginia scored 16 points on four red zone trips versus Old Dominion and the only Cavs’ touchdown in that game came on a third-and-goal from the one-yard line. The Cavs didn’t score in the red zone at Illinois, so UVA has one touchdown over the last eight quarters of football.
Syracuse, on the other hand, owns a +6 turnover margin and is tied-10th in defensive red zone percentage with Oklahoma at 60%. The Orange have only allowed five red zone trips in three games with three touchdowns.
The Orange surrendered 29 points to Purdue, but Aidan O’Connell is built different than most quarterbacks. Syracuse allowed 7 points to Louisville and 14 against UConn, so I like the chances Virginia stays Under 22.5 points (-135).
This is the second true road game for Virgina and I expect the Cavaliers to be playing from behind a lot in this matchup.
I risked 1.5 units on Virginia’s Team Total Under 22.5 Points at -135 odds on DraftKings to win 1.11 units.
Pick: Virginia Team Total Under 22.5 (Risk 1.5u to win 1.11 units)
Brennan Armstrong O/U 240.5 Passing Yards vs. Syracuse
I am not sure if we are going to find better value on a player prop this weekend than Brennan Armstrong‘s passing total versus Syracuse.
NBC’s player prop model projects Armstrong to sky over this prop with 332 passing yards, almost 100 yards more than the current prop line at DraftKings.
Last season, Armstrong threw for at least 268 passing yards in all 11 starts for Virginia. In 2020, he ended with 259-plus passing yards in three-straight.
This year, Armstrong recorded 284 yards on Old Dominion, 246 passing yards versus Richmond, and 180 yards against Illinois, so he is 16-1 to the Over 240.5 passing yards in the last 17 starts.
Armstrong has tossed at least 32 pass attempts in each game this season and Syracuse was just torched by Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell, giving Virginia and Armstrong the keys to the car (if you catch my drift).
O’Connell recorded 424 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT on 39-of-56 passing (69.6%) versus Syracuse.
The other two pass offenses that Syracuse has faced this year outside of Purdue was UConn and Louisville, so the jury is still out.
The Orange did win that game versus the Boilermakers on a last second touchdown, but with a -10 home favorite tag for Syracuse versus Virginia and Armstrong’s former OC on the opposite sideline, I expect Syracuse to win this game and have a favorable chance at covering.
If that is the case, Armstrong should have a positive game script to throw the ball in this contest. Armstrong has been able to get passing yards and move the Cavs down the field but UVA has had play calling issues in the red zone, leading to more yards and fewer points.
Let’s ride Armstrong Over 240.5 Passing Yards at -115 odds for 1 unit. If Anae was not on the opposite sideline, this prop total would be in the 270’s and we’d be looking at a larger unit size.
I will look at the ladder play on Armstrong when FanDuel releases this prop, if we get good enough odds.
Pick: Brennan Armstrong Over 240.5 Passing Yards (1u)
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