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North Carolina (PK) at Appalachian State: O/U 55.5
Man, one day away from us getting the +2.5, but it’s alright because we were going to dabble on the ML too.
Everyone is going to be betting UNC on the ML, but I am here to zig to everyone’s else’s zag.
These squads met once in 2019 and App State upset UNC on the road, 34-31 as +2 underdogs. Coincidence?
UNC replaces QB Sam Howell (Washington Commanders), RB Ty Chandler (Minnesota Vikings) and three offensive lineman on the offensive side of the ball, but does bring back eight from a defense that allowed 32.1 points per game.
While the defense should improve from last year, especially with three transfers from Ohio State (2) and Virginia (1). The offense will decline and focus around its best player, WR Joshua Downs. Outside of Downs, UNC will be relying on new talent at a lot of key positions.
Drake Maye looked great against Florida A&M, but I mean, it was FAMU. The defense for UNC though, did not look good, but we will get to that.
UNC finished last season 6-7 with a loss to South Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The Tar Heels only recorded back-to-back wins once and that was over Georgia State then Virginia.
However, the best stat is that UNC went 0-5 on the ML and 1-4 ATS in true road games last year and now replace a lot of firepower.
Over the last four years, UNC is 5-15 on the ML away from home (25%, -12.8 units) and 7-13 ATS (35%, -6.64 units).
Since 2018, UNC is 4-5 on the ML (44.4%, -4.11 units) as a road favorite and 3-6 ATS (33.3%, -3.27 units).
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App State has won 27 of the last 29 games at home (93.1%) and has only been an underdog twice in that span (since 2017). The Mountaineers went 2-0 ATS in those games as a home underdog and 1-1 on the ML.
For the Mountaineers, well, App State returns QB Chase Brice who set the school record with 3,337 passing yards last season. App States returns seven overall starters on offense, including their top four running backs, plus five starters back on defense.
According to polls and experts, this App State linebacking and secondary unit are among the best in the Sun Belt.
In addition to the defense, the Mountaineers offensive line is sturdy and rated one of the best among non-Power 5 teams. UNC defensive line switched to a three-man front for the first time, so App State’s O-Line could have a day for Brice and the running back committee.
Bottom line, this is a trap line and App State is one of the best non-Power-5 teams in the country, plus at home versus a poor road UNC team replacing their prized possession at QB from a year ago.
I took Appalachian State +2.5 (-110) on Saturday for 1 unit and the ML (+110) for a 0.5 unit. With the line coming down to a PK spot, fade the public with me and take the App State ML.
Pick: Appalachian State ML (1.5u)
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