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Temple at Duke (-7): O/U 51.5
If you don’t think there is value between Temple and Duke then you don’t know college football.
Both of these teams are downright bad, but watching them early gives us plenty of fade spots throughout the season like Missouri of last year. However, we will pass on the spread and play the total as there’s a trend I cannot pass on.
When Duke is a home favorite, the Over is 9-1 in the last 10 games (90%, +7.1 units) and hit three-straight, per NBC’s Edge Finder (pictured below).
When Duke is the favorite in general, the Over is 13-2 (86.6%, +9.8 units). Versus non-power 5 teams, the Over is 6-3-1 (66.6%) in the last 10 as a home favorite for Duke.
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Entering 2022, Temple returns 14 total starters with seven on offense and seven on defense. The Owls averaged 16.3 points per game in 2021 but averaged 25.7 points per game in its four non-conference games with 30.0 points per game allowed (vs Rutgers, Akron, Boston College, Wagner). I expect at least 21 points from Temple here.
The Owls seven returning starters on defense are learning a new system for the second-straight season, so I expect a slow start on defense, which is perfect for Duke since they are breaking in new offensive weapons.
For Duke, 11 starters are back, six on offense and five on defense. Duke loses its top QB, RB and WR in the offseason but has a strong offensive line with 124 career starts between the bunch. That should make life easier for the new signal-caller and bell-cow.
Duke’s backup QBs recorded playing time last year and the Blue Devils have depth returning behind the QB, RB and WR positions, just not many with starting experience. Temple is a great matchup to get started, and that’s partially why Duke is -7 favorites.
The Blue Devils also lost eight of their top 13 tacklers from a season ago and they were one of the worst tackling teams in the country, giving Temple an opportunity for YAC and big-plays on the ground.
In Duke’s four 2021 non-conference games (Charlotte, NC AT&T, Northwestern, Kansas), the Blue Devils allowed 26.0 points per game and scored 38.7 points per game themselves, Including 30-plus points in the three home non-conference games (42.3 PPG).
With all that being said, both defenses are going to look bad and make the opposing offenses better than they actually are. Let’s roll with the Over 51.5 (-110) for 1 unit. I would play this to 53.0 for 1 unit.
Pick: Over 51.5 (1u)
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