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Iowa State at Iowa (-3.5): O/U 41.5
Did you see Iowa score seven points versus South Dakota State? What was that all about?
Well, now they take on their rival, the Iowa State Cyclones for the Cy-Hawk trophy and we are in for another snoozer.
Every year we have to get in on this Under as both teams have been Under factories when they meet. I found about this trend in 2018 and have bet it three-straight years. Let’s make it four.
The Under has hit three-straight times in this series and six of the past seven dating back to 2014, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
When they are at Iowa, the Under has hit seven consecutive meetings, so the trends are 100-percent in our favor.
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I expect a snooze fest between these teams and plenty of field goal attempts. Last year, the final score was 27-17 and had 20 total second-half points, so if we get a slower start than 14-10, we should be in great shape.
Spencer Petras and Hunter Dekker will be the QB duo and I don’t have faith in either. Dekker will make the first road start of his career at Iowa this weekend, while Petras had 106 passing yards on 11 of 21 passing versus the Cyclones last year and opened this season with 109 yards and an interception on 11/25 versus South Dakota State.
The Iowa running game was in shambles without Tyler Goodson versus South Dakota State. The Hawkeyes finished with 72 rushing yards on 27 rushing attempts (2.6 yards per carry), so as long as Iowa State’s defense is average, we should have a low-scoring affair as usual.
I played the Under 41.5 at -115 odds and would play this down to 40.5 before passing or playing for a smaller unit.
Pick: Under 41.5 (1u)
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