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Cincinnati (-22) vs. Miami (OH): O/U 50.5
If you haven’t saw, there is no Brett Gabbertt for Miami of Ohio at quarterback.
The four-year starter was injured against Kentucky, and the new QB is Aveon Smith, who just made his first start versus Robert Morris.
Miami won 31-14 versus Robert Morris but did not cover at home. Yikes. I grew up near Robert Morris and they are not just bad, but really bad. So bad they let Aveon Smith throw three touchdowns bad.
The Bearcats of Cincy though are a top 25 team yet again and will have a significant crowd advantage. This is a neutral site game that will be played in Cincinnati at Paul Brown Stadium, so not really a neutral site at all.
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Cincy lost a tight game versus Arkansas in the season-opener (31-24) and trashed Kennesaw State 63-10 in a tune-up game ahead of this one.
The Bearcats should roll Miami as their new 2022 starting quarterback, Ben Bryant, who played at Eastern Michigan has prior experience against the Red Hawks.
Bryant had 206 passing yards and 1 TD to 1 INT on 21/31 last year and grinded out a 13-12 win. That Miami defense last year had an All-Conference linebacker that transferred and three defensive backs that went to the NFL.
Bryant will have far better athletes to throw to this time around and will be facing a far less dangerous defense overall. This year, Bryant has tossed 5 TDs to 1 INT on 68.3 completion percentage and recorded 526 passing yards.
The ground game for Cincy looked good versus Arkansas, totaling 113 yards and a score on 31 carries. Miami held Kentucky to 50 rushing yards, but that was against a back-up running back and a new offensive line playing together for the first time.
I expect Cincy to be able ton move the ball and score 35-plus points in this matchup. With an O/U of 50.5, I am not sure Miami will score two-plus touchdowns with Smith at quarterback on Cincinnati’s defense.
I don’t think this will be close and I am not sure if the market has caught onto Smith as the new QB for Miami making his first neutral/road start. This will be nothing like FCS Robert Morris.
I played the Bearcats at -22 for 1.5 units at -110 odds. I would play this to -23.5 for 1 .5 units.
Pick: Cincinnati -22 (1.5 units)
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