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Nevada at Iowa (-23): O/U 39.0
Nevada is walking into a very tough situation going to Iowa after a disappointing 10-7 home loss to rival Iowa State.
The Hawkeyes will be looking to take their frustrations out and the Wolfpack are the perfect opponent.
Since 2013, Nevada is 4-6 ATS and 1-9 on the ML versus Power 5 teams when they are a road underdog.
The Under has hit in five of the last six outings and six of the previous eight games when Nevada is a road dog against. Power 5 school, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
That looks fantastic versus Iowa since Nevada has an atrocious offense and Iowa has a terrific defense.
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I expect the Wolfpack’s offense to struggle quite often, especially since the quarterbacks combined for 218 passing yards, one touchdown and four interceptions at New Mexico State, followed up by 143 yards on 16-of-20 with no touchdowns or interceptions versus Texas State. They somehow won both games.
After that, Nevada lost to FCS opponent Incarnate World at home, 55-41. This Wolfpack team is really really bad and Iowa has only allowed 13 points in two games.
The Under is 5-2 in the last seven games when Iowa is a home favorite versus a non-Power 5 opponent, plus 4-3 ATS and 7-0 on the ML.
The Hawkeyes have won 11-straight games as home favorite versus non-Power 5 schools (6-5 ATS).
Let’s take the Nevada Team Total Under 8.5 at -150 odds on DraftKings. I lean the Iowa spread of -23.
I risked 2 units to win 1.33 units on the Team Total Under 8.5 points (-150) and would play this down to 7.5.
I don’t think Nevada scores a touchdown and can see anywhere between 0-6 points off field goals.
Pick: Nevada Team Total Under 8.5 (Risking 2u to win 1.33u)
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