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Chris Rodriguez Jr. O/U 93.5 Rushing Yards vs. Tennessee
Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been a dog since coming back from suspension.
The Kentucky running back has posted 72 yards, 126 yards and 197 yards on 19, 22 and 31 carries across his first three games.
Last season, Rodriguez ran for 109 yards on 22 rushing attempts versus Tennessee. He was a workhorse in that shootout and I expect Kentucky to establish Rodriguez early in what is considered Kentucky’s Super Bowl.
Overall in 2021, Rodriguez had 100-plus rushing yards in nine of 13 games and closed the season out with five-straight 100-yard performances versus Tennessee, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, Louisville and Iowa before opening this season with 100-plus yards against South Carolina and Mississippi State.
He has 100 or more rushing yards in seven of his last eight games and Kentucky is coming off a bye, so they will be fresh and have a week of preparation for Tennessee.
The two best running backs that Tennessee has faced this year gashed them. Jahmyr Gibbs of Alabama had 103 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 24 rushing attempts, while Pitt’s Israel Abanikanda ran for 154 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. I see Rodriguez going for 100-plus rushing yards too.
Tennessee does have great numbers on the defensive end when it comes to stopping the run, but they haven’t faced many teams that like to run and often get out to quick leads/starts, forcing opponents to abandon the run.
Kentucky wants to run. I bet Rodriguez Over 93.5 Rushing Yards at -115 odds. I’d play it to 99.5.
Pick: Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (0.5u)
Evan Hull O/U 44.5 Rushing Yards vs. Iowa
The Northwestern running back had 41 rushing yards on 11 carries last year versus Iowa and struggled versus top-tier rush defenses this season.
Evan Hull had 13 rushing yards on nine carries versus Wisconsin and 45 yards on 11 carries versus Penn State, but needed a 29-yard run to go Over his total. Hull had 16 yards on 10 rushing attempts besides that lone 29-yard run.
Iowa is one of the best rush defense in the country, ranking 14th with 104.3 rushing yards allowed per game and 10th in yards per carry (2.93).
The numbers would look even better if the best three running backs they faced didn’t have days. Illinois’ Chase Brown didn’t have 146 yards on 31 carries, but he is one of the best running backs in the country, not just the Big Ten.
Michigan’s Blake Corum posted 133 rushing yards on 29 carries and Iowa State’s Jirehl Brock had 100 yards on 27 attempts. Hull will not be seeing anywhere near 20 rushing attempts in this game.
Last week, Ohio State’s Treyvon Henderson led the buckeyes with 38 rushing yards on 11 carries in a 54-10 win. Iowa is tough to run on and you have to continually do it to crack that defense.
Northwestern is not capable of doing that and this is a big bounce back week for Iowa’s defense at home.
After allowing 54 points to Ohio State and losing three-striaght games to three of the best teams in the Big Ten (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State), we should expect Iowa’s defense to come close to shutting out Northwestern.
I played this at 47.5 and it soon became 44.5, which is playable. FanDuel has this at 42.5.
I expect this to close around 39.5 to entice people to bet the Over.
The -115 odds on DraftKings is worth a play.
Pick: Evan Hull Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (0.5u)
Hassan Hall O/U 61.5 Rushing Yards vs. Florida State
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— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) October 28, 2022
1.5u
Hassan Hall vs Florida State
Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) DK
Listed as the 3rd RB on the depth chart. Georgia Tech should be playing from behind at FSU.
Under is 5-2 this season and now he’s splitting more carries.
Credit @CFFroton for the find 🤙🏽 https://t.co/yXJkFkwdSV
Pick: Hassan Hall Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (1.5u)
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