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The No. 3 spot is cursed this year. I’m just coming out and saying it. Good luck Penn State, or possibly Iowa if the pollsters are feeling spicy. The No. 3 team has lost three times in five weeks, and the only convincing win was Oregon in Week 4, with Oklahoma doing so poorly against Nebraska that they dropped despite the win in Week 3. Put another way, the No. 3 team has dropped in the rankings four out of five weeks.
Week 5 was another wild week full of upsets, and so far the only thing we know is Alabama is definitely good, Georgia we’re 90% sure of (although that narrow Clemson win in Week 1 looks worse by the second) and everyone else pretty much stinks. Whatever poor 4-seed faces Alabama in the playoffs, you have my condolences.
Upset Alert
Ranked teams are dropping at a historic rate and Week 5 gave no respite on that front. Five ranked teams were upset this week, including both PAC-12 schools, proving once again that the west is a lawless wasteland where playoff dreams go to die.
#3 Oregon at Stanford (Line: Oregon -8.5, O/U 57.5)
Result: Stanford wins 31-24
Stanford is no stranger at playing spoiler, which they’ve now done twice, taking out (at the time) #14 USC in Week 2 and killing (the team formerly ranked) #3 Oregon’s dreams this time. Stanford was leading basically the whole game, but Oregon almost saved their season by taking the lead in the fourth. Some heroics by Tanner McKee were needed to send the game into overtime, finding Elijah Higgins in the end zone with five seconds left in the game. Stanford went on to score first in OT and stopped Oregon to complete the dramatic upset.
Dramatic it may have been, but it wasn’t entirely surprising. The line was just a smidge over a touchdown, which in college isn’t much of anything. Not only that, but the handle (and therefore the sharps) only took Oregon 57% of the time. Total bets did go Oregon’s way 78% of the time though, and the line actually did move from a -7 start, so Oregon was still definitely a favorite. Another popular bet was the over, with 71% of total bets and 79% of the handle expecting a high flying PAC-12 shootout, which only got close because of overtime.
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#10 Florida at Kentucky (Line: Florida -7.5, O/U 56.5)
Result: Kentucky wins 20-13
Oh Florida, what happened? Just two weeks ago they were the talk of the town, running Bama as close as anyone has or probably will until Championship season. (Probably including the Championship and the Playoffs if we are being real with ourselves. A depressing reality for fans of parity in the NCAA.) Anyways, another depressing reality is that Florida is still in turmoil from their once-lofty heights, now getting taken out by a surprising 5-0 Kentucky squad.
This was a close game throughout, with neither offense looking dangerous. The two teams combined to go 5 of 22 on third down, which isn’t ideal obviously. Florida fans should also remember the feeling of penalties sinking their season, committing a mind-boggling 15 infractions for 115 yards. It was Kentucky that scored the critical touchdown in the fourth quarter, expanding the lead they had to 10, and Florida was incredibly close to sending the game to OT but just couldn’t punch it in from the Kentucky 8-yard line.
On the betting side, this game was even more of a split than the last. While the majority of the previous game’s handle still took Oregon, however small it was, this time 53% of the money went to the Wildcats, while just 62% of the overall bets went to Florida. Bettors were wise to not get suckered into Florida’s “quality loss” to Alabama, and took appropriate precaution. It was a similar story for the total. 69% of the handle could perhaps smell the upset coming, which usually means a low-scoring game and they took the under accordingly, while 67% of the public took the over like they do 90% of the time anyways.
#18 Fresno State at Hawaii (Line: Fresno State -11, O.U 64.5)
Result: Hawaii wins 27-24
The biggest of the upset this week, both in terms of betting action and line, Fresno State could have also qualified for the new section debuting this week. No spoilers, but you’ll understand when we get there.
Fresno State may have been over-hyped by doing well against similarly over-hyped PAC-12 teams, which we see each week are nothing to write home about. The Bulldogs’ claim to fame was losing to Oregon and narrowly beating UCLA, and we saw what those teams were really made of this week. All three were brought crashing down into reality, and Fresno State was the worst crash of them all. They let the Rainbow Warriors put up 17 unanswered on them in the fourth quarter, and the small-school QB of the week Jake Haener saw his star fade real quick. He threw two of his four interceptions in the fourth, lost a fumble and completed just four passes in the final frame. That’s right, he almost turned it over as many times as he completed passes in the final quarter. Not a great ratio. It was an epic collapse, and bettors felt as devastated as Fresno State did. Well, probably not that devastated but pretty close.
Overall, 87% of bettors picked Fresno State to win, and 80% of the handle went that way as well. This was as unexpected as they come. Shockingly, the majority of both total bets and total money took the under, and my only explanation is they assumed Fresno State would blow Hawaii out and ease up on the gas. Instead, Fresno State thought Halloween came early and decided to give the football away instead of candy. At least bettors can take comfort in one win here.
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The Patrick Beverly “He Trick Y’all” Award
A new addition to the column, this one goes out to schools that seemed to get over-hyped by last week’s performance and faced the cruel hand of reality this week.
#8 Arkansas at #2 Georgia (Line: Georgia -16.5, O/U 49)
Result: Georgia wins 37-0
Ouch, this one hurt to watch. Honestly this game reminded me of my favorite SEC Shorts skit, just switching Alabama for Georgia. In fact, the skit (filmed four years ago) was nearly identical to what happened, proving time is indeed a flat circle.
The Razorbacks were flying high after a win over Texas A&M (who also got upset this week) which really papered over the cracks of how flimsy the win really was. The Arkansas offense was pretty much nonexistent in the second half of that game, with their only points coming from a field goal, which only happened due to a short field provided by an Arkansas interception. The defense, on the other hand, was incredible against the Aggies but was pretty much carried by the fact that they could get consistent pressure rushing just three guys, which it turns out doesn’t work against actual good teams. It also turns out the Aggies weren’t very good to begin with. Everything came to a brutal head that left Arkansas fans searching for the nearest trauma center.
As one can assume from the header, bettors were tricked (like everyone else) by Arkansas. Total bets and handle were over 80% for the Hogs in one of the most lopsided bets this week, and dreams of covering were crushed pretty quickly. The one saving grace was that bettors believed in the elite nature of both defenses by betting under. At least they were right about one side.
#12 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama (Line: Alabama -15, O/U 79.5)
Result: Alabama wins 42-21
10/2/2021, the day Matt Corral’s Heisman dreams died. R.I.P. In all seriousness, this really is what Alabama does. You play other teams, think you’re hot stuff and then get your doors blown off by yet another cog in the Nick Saban machine. The three touchdown deficit was closer than the actual game, with Ole Miss taking home two consolation scores in the fourth quarter.
It turns out the Alabama defense is just a little better than the Louisville, Austin Peay and Tulane defenses. Who could’ve known such a thing? Not the bettors. There was an even split for the total bets, and 60% of the handle were sipping on that Corral Kool-Aid and took Mississippi. Normally, that wouldn’t warrant such an extreme response, but this game wasn’t close from the get go, with Alabama opening up a 28-0 lead in the first half. Good luck Texas A&M.
Once again, though, in a pleasant surprise, 56% of the total bets took under which they never do. To be fair that 79.5 number is gigantic and hard to bet over, but 51% of the handle did just that.
Rutgers could also easily fall into this category, with a strong performance at Michigan having a few bettors thinking Ohio State might be in for a fight. Turns out that wasn’t the case, and the Buckeyes may be rounding into some good form right in time for conference play. In a similar vein, one has to wonder when the upset bell tolls for the Wolverines.
Protectors of Your Cash
UL-Monroe at #16 Coastal Carolina (Line: CCU -33.5, O/U 57.5)
Result: CCU wins 59-6
Despite the big number, CCU finds themselves protecting the bettors for the second straight week in a straightforward dismantling of ULM. The Chanticleers didn’t struggle to move the ball at all, and QB Grayson McCall ended the first half a perfect 13 of 13. With the game already in the bag at that point, McCall sat for the rest of the way, and CCU got to their fourth-string QB when all was said and done, who still threw for another score.
Bettors thank the Chanticleers for their service. A whopping 90% of the total money took CCU to destroy their opponent, and they did just that. CCU is clearly multiple steps above their competition, just like they were last year, and have such an efficient and well-run offense that almost no spread is too high. Not only did they perform against the spread, the Chanticleers took it upon themselves to clear the total as well, and with 90% of bets and 81% of the money, Coastal Carolina protected you in two ways. This team is humming right now, and will probably be staples of this section considering their weak schedule.
#7 Cincinnati at #9 Notre Dame (Line: Cincinnati -2, O/U 50)
Result: Cincinnati wins 24-13
This game was as close to a Pick ‘Em as it gets in college football, and the Bearcats were almost the unanimous pick. Over 80% of the bettors and handle took Cincy and they delivered. It wasn’t an easy game by any means, with Notre Dame mounting a small comeback late in the game before Desmond Ridder led a door-slamming drive, his rushing TD making it an 11-point lead with 5:52 left in the fourth. Surprisingly, the total was split. The majority of bets (62%) went for the over, while 64% of the total money took under. To be fair, this game did really seem like it could go either way, a defensive battle, a shootout or anything in between, and perhaps if Notre Dame didn’t have to go through three QBs to settle on Drew Pyne the over could easily have been the play.
Cincy has been on the opposite side of this category before, failing to cover against Murray State despite being heavy favorites to do so, but this is also their second week protecting your cash. If you remember two weeks ago, there was also a question about Cincy and starting slow. Well, they were shutout of the first quarter again this week (third game in a row) but put up 17 in the second, and dropped another seven points in the fourth which remains their best quarter. More data points are needed to come to a conclusion, but so far they are consistently failing to score at the start of the game, but they are also never failing to put up points at the end. Food for thought.
Boston College at #25 Clemson (Line: Clemson -15, O/U 46)
Result: Clemson wins 19-13
As discussed last week, it’s pretty rare for an underdog to receive lopsided betting action in their favor. It didn’t work out last week for Akron, but it did for Boston College, which really just shows you the depths to which Clemson has fallen. Clemson never had a snowball’s chance of covering, with BC playing them close all game.
The public and the sharps were united in their dismissal of Clemson’s offense with 84% of the total bets and 85% of the handle taking BC to cover the 15 points, which they did with ease. In fact, I’d wager most of those bettors wouldn’t have been shocked at all by an outright win for the Eagles and were all too happy to get spotted 15 points. It’s really incredible how Clemson allowed things to be so close, considering they, the heavy favorites to win the game, won the turnover battle 3-0 and still barely scraped out the victory.
Similarly, 69% of the handle took the under, knowing this was going to be a clunker of a game. The public wasn’t quite so insightful, with 63% of tickets going toward the over.
That’s all for Week 5. This has been one of the craziest starts to a season in recent memory. Even though Alabama is proving an unflappable fortress, all the other ranked teams are dropping like flies, and there isn’t enough time in the day to mention them all. Is your favorite team next? Probably. If I had to put money on the next undefeated to fall, (and this is a betting column after all) Oklahoma has looked questionable to say the least the past two weeks, and Michigan is due for their yearly dream-crushing any day now.
Checking in on the O/U trends, of the 19 games involving ranked teams, six had a majority of the total bets take the under, which is the most so far by a solid margin. Perhaps the people are learning? The majority of the handle, as has been the case all year, favored the under slightly more, at eight times. As far as actual games go, eight games went over and 11 went under. All year, under has been ever so slightly favored, but it’s been essentially 50/50 through five weeks. Vegas knows what they are doing in when they are making these points totals, and the proof is in the pudding.
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