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Oh boy. Every time you think the NCAA landscape can’t get crazier and more muddled, it does. Each week more and more undefeated teams fall, and ranked teams are struck down by seemingly lesser opponents. For the ones that don’t lose outright, they are given unbelievable scares. With 24/25 ranked teams in action this week (only Oklahoma was spared of the carnage) it’s perhaps no surprise that this week was a bloodbath. Only Georgia looks impregnable right now, but with how this season is going, next week they’ll be in for the fight of their lives.
Upset Alert
Seven ranked teams lost to unranked opponents this week including two teams in the top ten, who were both previously undefeated. Some of those games weren’t even particularly close. Vegas, as it always is, was pretty all-knowing though, as three of the unranked teams were actually betting favorites when all was said and done, and only one upset came against a team that was favored by more than a touchdown.
#3 Michigan State @ Purdue (Line: Michigan State -3, O/U 52.5)
Result: Purdue wins 40-29
They can’t keep getting away with it. Or maybe they can. Purdue played Spoilermaker once again, adding the No. 3 team in the nation, the Michigan State Spartans, to their list this time. Purdue led basically every step of the way. The Spartans did manage to tie the game twice, but by the fourth quarter the Boilermakers had opened up a 13-point lead and never really looked in danger after that. Aidan O’Connell turns into prime Aaron Rodgers in these upsets for whatever reason. Against teams ranked in the Top-4, O’Connell is sporting a 74% completion rate, 456 yards per game, five total touchdowns and no interceptions. It could also be David Bell turning into Jerry Rice, as he’s averaging 228.5 yards and a touchdown in the same situations. Either way, something about these playoff teams gets Purdue’s blood boiling, and Michigan State were the victims this time.
The line wasn’t even that big, as everyone knew Purdue had this in them, especially at home (although they’ve done most of their damage away this year, see Iowa and Nebraska) and the line reflected that, favoring the undefeated Spartans by just three points. Without the context of what Purude can do, that would be too low, and bettors were tricked. In some of the most lopsided action of the entire day (#1 by total bet percentage, #4 by total handle) 86% percent of bettors took the Spartans to cover, and 89% of the handle did the same. The public thought they were getting a free deal, and it turned out to be anything but. Unfortunately they can’t even take solace in the points total either. The majority (large majority if talking about the handle, 74%) picked under, which makes sense. It’s a Big Ten matchup and the Spartans are known for defense and running the ball, two things that generally keep scores low. They just didn’t account for O’Connell and Bell becoming the best players in the NCAA, just like they were against Iowa. It’s not a surprise for the public to get hosed when there are a lot of upsets, and this week is definitely not an exception.
Purdue gets another chance to kill another currently playoff-bound team’s dream as they take on OSU in Week 11. They may be away this time, but that really hasn’t stopped them this year, and OSU has looked gettable in their last two games.
Illinois @ #20 Minnesota (Line: Minnesota -14.5, O/U 44)
Result: Illinois wins 14-6
By far the biggest upset by points spread this week, Illinois are rubber-banding as much as Purdue this year. One week they look awful, getting blanked by Wisconsin, and the next they beat #7 Penn State. Then they get beat by Rutgers (who had lost four straight at that point), only to turn around and defeat a ranked Minnesota. The Fighting Illini specialize in making the game as ugly as possible, dragging a team down to their level, and once you’re down there anything can happen. Just like against Penn State, the offensive performances were ugly, with neither team topping 300 total yards of offense, and Minnesota turned it over twice. Minnesota were actually scoreless until 5:45 left in the 4th quarter, and to add insult to injury they missed the ensuing PAT.
As far as betting action goes, this was one of six games that featured a split between the total ticket majority and total handle majority. Of those six games, the money majority went 3-2-1 (W-L-Push) versus the ticket majority. This one was fairly tame, with 56% of the tickets going with Minnesota, while 57% of the money rode with Illinois and the points. Minnesota was never close to covering in this one, as Illinois led throughout and the final score is only as close as it is because of the aforementioned 4th quarter score. On the other hand there was lopsided action in the points total, but unfortunately it went in the wrong way for the betting public. Only three games this week featured heavily slanted O/U betting, and 81% of the bets took over in this one, as did 87% of the handle and the total didn’t get anywhere near. The number was really low, but Illinois was averaging just 17.5 points coming into this game and giving up 23.3. Recently they’ve been even more stiff, allowing just 17.8 in the five games previous. Minnesota has been scoring better, but again Illinois slowing the tempo and turning things into a knock-down drag-out brawl is what they do. All but one game Illinois has played in has gone under, with Week 2 against UTSA being the lone exception. Keep that in mind for next week when they play the offense-deficient Iowa Hawkeyes.
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#12 Baylor @ TCU (Line: Baylor -7, O/U 58)
Result: TCU wins 30-28
This was the only other somewhat significant upset by spread for the week. Fresno State was favored by just 5, and in the other three “upsets” the ranked team was the underdog.
Baylor may have been caught in a classic case of looking ahead, with a matchup against Oklahoma that very well could’ve decided the Big 12 coming up next week. Unfortunately, they were tripped up by the Horned Frogs, and whatever playoff hope they might’ve had was ended. Baylor was helpless against TCU’s passing attack, and TCU QB Chandler Morris accounted for 531 yards of offense along with three scores. Honestly it’s shocking that TCU didn’t put up more points, as they were forced into three field goals (two from inside the red zone) in the second quarter. The two point lead they opened up by the end of the half ended up being the difference, but Baylor was never out of the game until the game-ending interception with 1:31 left on the clock.
They were out of the cover from pretty early on though as TCU proved more than their match. Besides the seven point lead the Bears took by scoring on their first possession (which was answered four minutes later) Baylor never led by more than one, which they only had for two minutes. That was a shame for the bettors, 80% of whom took Baylor to cover, and an even bigger shame for the total money, with 86% of the cash taking the Bears as well. Not only have the lopsided bets covered so far missed, they missed by a pretty significant margin. The O/U pushed at least, which was honestly pretty lucky. TCU’s kicker missed a 34-yard chip shot to miss the over with two minutes left in the game, and 65% of bettors (and 79% of the handle) breathed a sigh of relief.
Failure to Launch
Honestly this section could’ve been much worse. Eight games saw lopsided action one way or another, and four times the heavily bet side cover, which leaves four failures. We’ve already covered two, so let’s hit the last two real quick.
#5 OSU @ Nebraska (Line: OSU -14, O/U 68)
Result: OSU wins 26-17
OSU has failed to cover twice in a row now, but perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise. Nebraska has been feisty all year despite their 3-7 record. Prior to this game, in their three games against ranked opponents they’ve lost by seven to Oklahoma, three to Michigan State and three to Michigan. In fact, their worst loss all year has been to Illinois in Week 1, which was by eight. On the other side, OSU struggled to finish drives with touchdowns yet again. On six drives where they got inside the Nebraska 30, they kicked four field goals, threw one interception and scored one touchdown. That can work against Big Ten offenses, but if OSU is dreaming bigger that won’t cut it.
Back to betting, 85% of the total bets and 83% of the handle took OSU and were sorely disappointed. There was a brief moment in the 2nd quarter where OSU scored a 75-yard touchdown and made the score 17-3 where the cover really had legs, but 25 seconds later Nebraska got their own 72-yard touchdown and OSU never led by 14 again. They definitely had their chances, but settling for three field goals and no touchdowns in the second half hurt.
Tulsa @ #6 Cincinnati (Line Cincinnati -22.5, O/U 56)
Result: Cincinnati wins 28-20
Another Cincinnati 20+ point favorite, and another Cincinnati miss. I’m not sure what’s going on with the Bearcat offense, but they just haven’t been the same since Jerome Ford’s four touchdown explosion against UCF. He’s been held under 100 yards rushing in the last three games, and under four yards per carry in the past two. Cincy is averaging just 28.7 points in this three game stretch, against what are currently a 2-7 Navy, 1-8 Tulane and 3-6 Tulsa, which is nowhere near enough to cover the massive point spreads they are getting. This game was closer than the score line suggests, as Tulsa had six chances from inside the Bearcats six-yard line (including a full set of downs from the Cincy 3 after recovering a Desmond Ridder fumble with 1:14 left in the game) and failed to score. The final play was both close, yet hilariously far away, with Tulsa’s Steven Anderson stretching for the goal line, and the ball falling out of his hand just short.
Perhaps Cincinnati is saving something for their critical matchup against SMU in two weeks, but with their committee ranking they cannot afford close games against bad teams, and they have 2-7 USF up next. They’ll be big favorites again, but it’s hard to recommend them. A massive 93% of the handle (biggest handle percentage of the week) thought Cincy would finally break their streak and were burned badly. The vast majority of bettors also got burned on the points total as well, with over 80% of the bets and money taking over, and again Cincinnati failed to deliver. The implied score needed projected Cincy to score around 39 points, and they haven’t done that in awhile.
Protectors of Your Cash
As the math suggests, with eight lopsided games and four of them failing to cover, that means four teams managed to protect your cash. Here’s a brief run down.
- Wisconsin has been on a tear recently. They’ve won five straight, and four of those were in convincing fashion, blanking Illinois 24-0, upsetting the upset kings Purdue 30-13, shutting down (at the time) #9 Iowa and now laying the absolute smackdown on Rutgers. They’ve got the last three Big Ten West teams left, and they seem to be peaking at the right time. The relatively big line of Wisconsin -13 wasn’t big enough, and 80% of bettors knew that.
- Oklahoma State were able to shut down a pesky West Virginia team that was fresh off a big upset win over Iowa State. The Cowboys held the Mountaineers to just 189 yards of offense, and were covering the -3.5 by the early second quarter and easily held on the whole way. Over 80% of the action and money took the Cowboys to do so and nailed it.
- Pittsburgh bounced back from their stumble against Miami, easily handling Duke. Duke’s now given up 40+ points in three straight, but at least they got the offense working after scoring just seven total points the previous two weeks. It was a close call however, with Pitt needing a totally unnecessary touchdown with 3:11 left in the game already up three scores to make it. Good thing too, as Pitt were overall the most bet team when considering both bet percentage (85%) and handle percentage (93%).
- Oregon got two safeties on their way to the cover, winning by ten points and favored by just seven. It wasn’t a terribly convincing performance for the Ducks, but hey, wins a win right now, especially when so many teams are collapsing around them. Oregon took an eight point lead early in the third and the game never got closer than that. Over 90% of the handle took the Ducks, while a slightly more conservative 84% of the bets did the same. Overall, this week the handle percentage was higher in every lopsided game except one, so the sharps were much more confident than usual this week, which didn’t exactly work out.
Close Calls
#9 Wake Forest @ North Carolina (Line: UNC - 2.5, O/U 77)
Result: UNC wins 58-55
There was pretty much no way this wouldn’t be a high-scoring affair, with both teams’ offenses able to put up points in a hurry, and both defenses equally porous. North Carolina was the favorite in this one, despite Wake Forest being 8-0 coming in and UNC a disappointing 4-4. That looked like a mistake through three quarters, with Wake Forest taking a 48-34 lead into the final frame. Then UNC entered hyperdrive, scoring 24 straight points to take the lead. Ty Chandler in particular went off, scoring from 13, 21 and 50 yards out, the last one coming with just 1:28 left. Wake Forest managed to pull one touchdown back in under a minute, but there simply wasn’t enough time to complete the comeback, leaving UNC to barely cover. Wake Forest got just 59% of bets and 52% of the money despite being ranked underdogs, and the cautious approach was the correct one at the end of the day.
What shocks me is that the over wasn’t more heavily taken. To be fair, 77 is a large number (by far the biggest of the week amongst ranked teams) but at the same time both of these teams are defined by high fire power and paper-thin defenses. Wake Forest managed to put up solid defensive performance against Duke, but it’s clear that was a fluke sandwiched between giving up 50+, while UNC games are averaging over 71 points. While 78% of the handle took the over which makes sense, just 60% of the bets did the same, which is shocking given how much the public likes to go over.
It was another incredible week of college football, but unfortunately the article (already the longest this year) has to end eventually. A few more games deserve at least nominal mention however. Alabama had a nail-biter against LSU despite being 28.5 point favorites, showing vulnerability once again. Georgia on the other hand, smoked their opponent 43-6 but hilariously didn’t cover because the line was 40 points. Even then they almost made it, settling for a field goal at the Mizzou 7 with 2:44 left, needing a touchdown to cover. #23 Fresno State were slaughtered despite taking on unranked Boise State, and more than any other team really seem to be getting the benefit of the doubt despite less than impressive results. Finally, Kentucky continues their backslide into irrelevance, losing three straight. Georgia seems to have sent them to the sunken place and they don’t seem like they are getting out anytime soon. Arkansas and Mississippi State had a thriller, with Arkansas taking the lead with just 54 seconds left, but even the successful two point conversion didn’t allow them the cover as four point favorites.
A few weeks ago I mentioned how this year is stacking up to 2007, often held up as the example of chaos in college football. 2021 was right on their heels at the time, and hasn’t slowed down. If anything it’s ramping up. Just four FBS teams remain undefeated, and we’re just getting into the hardest part of most school’s schedules. Three loss teams are already in the rankings (Wisconsin is going to rise) and there are four more weeks left to go. If Georgia or Cincinnati lose, this has to officially be the wildest year in NCAA history, and I can’t wait.
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