The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Upset Alert
Upsets galore once again in the NCAA as eight teams ranked higher than their opponent took a tumble, with six of those being to unranked squads. Team Chaos wins once again. Despite that though, in terms of betting action only two of the eight were actually “big” upsets, with the other six being less than four-point spreads, if the higher-ranked team was favored at all.
Miami at #17 Pittsburgh (Line: Pitt -9, O/U 61)
Result: Miami wins 38-34
It seems Tyler Van Dyke’s virtuoso performance against N.C. State was not a fluke, as he delivered again to take down yet another ranked ACC team. He tossed 426 yards and three scores and out-dueled Pitt star QB Kenny Pickett, who had 519 yards and three scores, but also two picks. Miami jumped out to a big lead in the first half, before Pitt came storming back and had a chance to win it late, driving in Miami territory with 4:50 left in the game when Pickett’s second interception came through.
The betting action wasn’t incredibly lopsided in this one, but it was still firmly on Pitt’s side. Even though the line actually moved 2.5 points in Miami’s favor by kickoff, 72% of total bets took Pitt, while 65% of the handle did the same. Miami have battled in the ACC all year, losing two incredibly close games to Virginia and North Carolina, and scrapping out a win over N.C. State, and have really come and gone as new QB Tyler Van Dyke has. If he plays well, they win, if he isn’t so great they’ve lost. Unfortunately for Pitt bettors, Miami got good Van Dyke again. That Jekyll and Hyde act for Miami perhaps explains why bettors were also very cautious on the over/under, but I’m not sure the logic tracks. Both Pitt and Miami put up oodles of points (Miami did that regardless of Van Dyke, scoring 42 against North Carolina despite three interceptions) while Pitt’s calling card has been Pickett and the offense, although I guess they’ve been less explosive in ACC play. Still, the two teams crushed the over, which only 52% of bettors and 51% of money picked them to do.
#22 Iowa State at Virginia (Line: -7.5, O/U 48)
Result: West Virginia wins 38-31
After getting a nice upset against Oklahoma State, it was Iowa State’s turn to get tripped up versus an always gutsy West Virginia team. They led by a touchdown going into the fourth, but two straight touchdown drives gave the Mountaineers the lead. ISU had a chance to tie it up on 1st and goal but an uncharacteristic fumble by star running back Breece Hall on the WVU 2-yard line ended things.
In terms of betting action, this one of the most split games of the year, with 59% of tickets taking the favorite in Iowa State, while 56% of the handle tabbed WVU to make the upset at home. Neither were anywhere near a consensus though, and contentious betting action fit a contentious game. One place bettors agreed though was on the over, with 75% of the total action and 76% of the money thinking 48 was way too low, and they were right. The two teams matched 48 early in the third quarter, and ended up blowing past it by the time things were all said and done. It’s a bit of a surprise to be honest, as ISU loves to keep the ball on the ground, while this was WVU’s first time over 30 points since beating C.W. Post in Week 2.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more
Failure to Launch
#2 Cincinnati @ Tulane (Line: Cincinnati -28, O/U 61.5)
Result: Cincinnati wins 31-12
Another disappointing performance from the Bearcats, who really need to rack up some style points on bad teams if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. Tulane might be the best 1-7 team in the nation, but they are still 1-7, and the Cincy offense seems to be holding themselves back for no reason. Tulane was on their third-string QB, and the Cincy defense did their job by blanking the Green Wave in three quarters. Two of Tulane’s points were on a safety, while a Desmond Ridder interception gave Tulane a short field for a field goal. Tulane sold out to stop the run, and gave Ridder lots of space to throw which he took advantage of, but things broke down in Tulane territory way too often. They threw a pick, punted at the Tulane 40 for some reason despite going for it on two other occasions and making it both times, took a ten yard sack and were held to just a field goal on 1st and goal after a Tulane fumble. Cincy had ample opportunity to put up points and just...didn’t.
That’s two weeks in a row Cincy were heavy favorites, and two weeks in a row where they failed to cover by more than a touchdown. I wasn’t a fan of betting them against Navy because Navy is really good at doing Navy things and keeping games close, but they should’ve destroyed Tulane and didn’t. I wasn’t the only one who thought so. Cincy were so heavily bet throughout the week that the line moved a whole four points in their favor from opening, which is a gigantic amount, and still 87% of the bets and 93% of the handle picked the Bearcats and got hosed. That was by far the biggest spread percentage of the week, and they weren’t even close to covering, and weren’t for most of the game. There wasn’t any solace to be had on the over/under either, with over 70% of bets and handle taking over which missed by a mile. Tulane honestly probably over-performed on their part, and it was really up to the Bearcats to carry the points total which they’ve done on a number of occasions, but not this time.
I have no idea what to make of the Bearcats, who after a roaring start are falling to earth. They are 5-3 against the spread now, despite being 5-1 just two weeks ago on a four cover streak, and the first missed cover they still won by 35, just barely failing against Murray State. They need to play better on offense to overcome a weak schedule, as their one remaining ranked opponent, SMU, just lost and I’m not sure they’ll still be ranked by the time the Bearcats can get a piece. More urgency is necessary, but it doesn’t seem like Cincinnati feels that way.
#9 Iowa at Wisconsin (Line: Wisconsin -3, O/U 36)
Result: Wisconsin wins 27-7
How often do you see a top-10 team go up against an unranked opponent, and they actually GET points? It just proves that Iowa were in fact, the biggest frauds of the year and have been summarily crushed in two straight games. Their putrid offense is catching up with them, and they couldn’t even muster up a real effort coming off a bye, going down 20-0 by the end of the first half. On the other side, Wisconsin is starting to build something after a disastrous 1-3 start where they lost, quite badly in two cases, to every ranked team they faced. They’ve put together a sneaky four game win streak, including taking out two straight ranked opponents. They’ve realized the secret is to let Graham Mertz do as little as humanly possible and just hope their defense and run game carries them. So basically Wisconsin every year, which is a shame considering the hype Mertz came with. Still, the new Wisconsin strategy, which is really just the old Wisconsin strategy, still works against everyone not named Ohio State, so carry on Badgers.
Iowa, as ranked underdogs, took home 80% of the tickets and 81% of the money, as they were just too juicy to pass up for bettors. Unfortunately it’s those same bettors who are left holding the bag with another Hawkeye stinker, who didn’t look remotely close to covering in this one. I’m still of the opinion with how pathetic most offenses in the Big Ten are, there are really no safe bets to be had there, except the under. That proved apt this time too, as despite the incredibly low points total of 36 the Big Ten did their thing and still went under. Again though, bettors saw that tiny number and were tricked, with 69% of tickets and 65% of the money going over.
Protectors of Your Cash
Duke at #13 Wake Forest (Wake Forest -16, O/U 71.5)
Result: Wake Forest wins 45-7
Wake Forest, unlike some of the other ranked teams this week, didn’t let a good win get to their heads and suffer a hangover. Instead, they went out and dominated even more, adding a fantastic defensive effort to go along with their prodigious offense. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman now has 11 touchdowns in two games and he’s hitting his stride at the most important time of the season. He hit five different guys with 30+ yard completions in one of the most complete performances you’ll see from a QB. That type of offensive output is why 89% of the total bets and 81% of the total money went to the Demon Deacons, who delivered with aplomb.
Given how Duke has looked in the ACC, 16 points was not nearly enough and it’s almost surprising that the action wasn’t more lopsided than it already was. The one thing holding bettors back was seeing if Wake Forest’s defense that let Army drop 56 on them was ready to play, and it turns out they were. They blanked the Blue Devils halfway through the fourth quarter before giving up a “who cares” touchdown. That defensive effort also paid off in the form of the O/U. It was a huge number, the biggest amongst all the games involving ranked teams, but the majority of bettors wisely knew to go under. Duke put up seven against North Carolina’s awful defense and got shutout by Virginia, who gave up 66 points on Saturday. That was enough evidence for 69% of the tickets to slam under, and an even bigger proportion of the money (79%) did the same.
Missed The Target
#19 SMU at Houston (Line: Pick Em, O/U 62)
Result: Houston wins 44-37
This game was a thrilling offensive showcase, with both QBs playing well, and getting whatever they wanted through the air. Throw in not one, but two return touchdowns, one of which gave Houston the lead with less than 20 seconds left in the game, and these two teams gave the audience an incredible show. The pick’em line was astute by Vegas, as this game was closely contested for a large majority. Houston jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but SMU came roaring back and even took a lead in third.
The missed part comes from the points spread, set at a much too low 62. Bettors were more certain of the over than anything else this weekend, with over 90% of total bets and spread hitting the over as hard as they possibly could. Vegas predicted offense, but they weren’t able to foresee even remotely close to how much offense there actually was, to the bettors’ delight.
Second Half Heroes
#6 Michigan at #8 Michigan State (Line: Michigan -4, O/U 50.5)
Result: Michigan State wins 37-33
In the best game of the week, closely contested by SMU-Houston amongst others, the battle of Michigan lived up to its lofty reputation and then some. Michigan took a 23-14 lead into half, and stretched that to 30-14 halfway through the third quarter. Enter Kenneth Walker III, who scored three more touchdowns (five total) from then on in a furious Spartans comeback. All told, Michigan State scored 23 of their 37 in the second half, and 15 points in the 4th quarter. They rewarded the small majority of bettors (58% of tickets, 61% of the handle) that took them, and while it looked pretty dangerous for a while, Walker told them to get on his back and just kept running.
Unfortunately, while Michigan State’s second half heroics did wonders for the spread, it killed any chance of the points total landing under, which a vast majority bet on. A whopping 81% of the total bets and 88% of the cheddar thought this was going to be a defensive battle and smashed the under, which the Spartans took away by the end of the third. Overall, the house won this battle, but at least Michigan State bettors took some money back.
The Patrick Beverly “He Trick Y’all” Award
#12 Kentucky at Mississippi State (Line: Mississippi State -1.5, O/U 47)
Result: Mississippi State wins 31-17
If there’s one thing Mike Leach loves to do, it’s to be overall mediocre but really ruin the seasons of ranked programs, and he did it once again. Kentucky was the Cinderella story of the season, but this one had the bad alternate ending where the Prince never finds her after the party. Wildcats’ QB Will Levis was skating by, letting the Kentucky run game and defense do it’s thing. That didn’t happen in this one, as Bulldog’s QB Will Rogers was near flawless, going a ridiculous 36-of-39 (he had two separate completion streaks longer than the previous Mississippi State record) and forced Levis to try and air it out. He failed magnificently, constantly missing guys and ended up with three picks on the day.
With the #12 team ending up the underdogs by the kickoff, bettors thought they could get a deal, with 72% of the action going UK’s way, while a more conservative 63% of the money did the same. The Wildcats got slaughtered for the second straight game though and failed to deliver even a competitive game. Luckily for bettors, UK’s essentially garbage time touchdown at the beginning of the fourth quarter allowed the over to just sneak on by. A lopsided 81% of the bets and 80% of the handle took the over, and breathed a sigh of relief, as Kentucky’s offense didn’t look likely to score for 95% of the game, their previous touchdown coming on a punt return.
Split Decisions
Fresno State at #21 San Diego State (Line: Fresno State -1, O/U 44.5)
Result: Fresno State wins 30-20
This game not only featured the biggest split in terms of spread action, but also the biggest split for the over/under for a double whammy. The line already suggested this game was incredibly close, and the betting action told the same story. 54% of the bets took the higher ranked team in SDSU (the tickets almost always go for the higher ranked team in these cases) while 70% of the handle rode with Fresno State and were rewarded handsomely. Fresno State was up 20-0 at one point, and held on pretty comfortably the rest of the way.
Funnily enough, while the majority of the money won on the spread, they lost almost equally on the O/U. While 72% of the total bets (again, total bets almost always take over) 66% of the money tried to go under, which was foiled by SDSU, perhaps in revenge, as they scored a pretty meaningless touchdown with 1:18 left to hit the over.
It was a tough week for the public, who took a number of big losses. Only Wake Forest and the combined offensive prowess of SMU and Houston prevented this week from being even worse. There was a surprisingly large amount of lopsided action on the points total, with over 80% of bets and money hammering one way five times, and none of them coincided with lopsided action on the game itself, which is a rarity. The majority went 3-2 on the lopsided point total wagers, with under 50.5 on Michigan-Michigan State and over 61.5 on Texas-Baylor failing, versus Texas Tech-Oklahoma over 67.5, Kentucky-Mississippi State over 47 and SMU-Houston over 62 making the mark. If there’s one thing to remember, it’s that betting is really, really hard.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
