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Favorites come in all shapes and sizes in college football. While double-digit spreads are a relative rarity at the pro level, those numbers can vary wildly on Saturdays as teams dip in and out of conference play or step up (or down) a level in competition.
And while it’s often easy to be tempted to take a handful of points and hope for the best with a significant underdog, sometimes the favorites are favored for a reason. Each week our College Football staff will share their picks for which “chalk” favorite of 10 points or more will both win and, more importantly, cover the spread. (Note: We look at underdogs as well.)
Here are our staff’s picks for Week 6, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Liberty (-24.5) over UMass
Liberty has won (and covered) the past three meetings against UMass by convincing scores:
Liberty 62, UMass 17 (Liberty was a -35.5 home favorite)
Liberty 45, UMass 0 (Liberty was a -35 home favorite)
Liberty 62, UMass 21 (Liberty was a -23 road favorite)
We have another big spread here, but it is warranted. Liberty scored 36 points in a loss at Wake Forest and 38 in a win at Old Dominion. This should be the highest-scoring game of the season for the Flames, who have a tasty Team Total of 36.5 (Over -130).
I think Liberty puts up 42+ points and covers the -24.5 spread against a UMass team that lost 28-0 to Temple, 55-10 to Toledo, 42-10 to Tulane and 20-13 against Eastern Michigan in FBS play this season (1-3 ATS).
(YTD Record: 1-4 ATS)
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Liberty (-24.5) over UMass
This is a bittersweet pick for me, as I view Liberty as a layup against my alma mater. Ever since the departure of beloved HC Mark Whipple, the UMass program has been rudderless. With former Michigan DC Don Brown now at the helm in Year 1, the Minutemen have struggled to do just about anything positive offensively, ranking dead last overall in the FBS in terms of offensive performance. They are basically unable to move the ball through the air, ranking 130th out of 131 teams while averaging 3.2 yards per pass attempt. They also rank 131st in both yards per play (3.54) and points per drive (0.73).
It’s not like they are pitching the steel curtain on defense, either, ranking 96th in defensive performance and 116th in rushing defense. On the other side, Liberty has been sensational on defense, ranking 13th nationally in success rate (34%), 23rd in points per drive (1.59) and 21st in suppressing explosive plays. The Flames’ offense is averaging just under 30 PPG (The 10.6 PPG average for UMass ranks 131st.).
Liberty also boasts a former top-20 QB from the Class of 2021, Tennessee transfer Kaidon Salter, who is a lethal dual-threat signal caller that has led LU to 195 rushing yards per game with a 4.8 YPC average. While LU checks in at 91st in terms of their passing performance, I cannot see this very limited UMass defense matching up to the talent Liberty is putting on the field.
I don’t think UMass hits 10 points in this contest, which means Liberty only has to put up 35 points against a Minutemen defense that gave up 55 to Toledo, 42 to Tulane and lost 28-0 to the lowly Temple Owls. Liberty is many magnitudes better as a team than Temple, especially on defense, and will roll easily in this tune-up game.
(YTD Record: 3-1-1 ATS)
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Washington (-14) over Arizona State
I hate taking big spreads on the road, but these programs are heading in different directions. I’m not concerned by Washington losing to UCLA last week, as the Bruins were the better team that night and the result should provide more motivation for the Huskies.
A couple of weeks ago, Arizona State let go of HC Herm Edwards. But the solution for them isn’t a mid-season change of coach. The Sun Devils rank 91st in defensive FEI and 56th in offensive FEI. Washington, led by QB Michael Penix Jr., should be able to run up the score on a defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed.
Even with last week’s loss, the Huskies are 4-1 ATS this season with an average margin of victory of 18.4 points. Lay the points with Washington.
(YTD Record: 3-2 ATS)
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): James Madison (-11) over Arkansas State
James Madison continues to wreak havoc on FBS competition in their first season at this level. Sitting at 4-0, the Dukes are also 4-0 ATS and have covered by an average of 15.75 points. On the road this week against Arkansas State, JMU is rightfully favored against a Red Wolves team that’s a perfect 5-0 ATS despite their 2-3 overall record. Something’s gotta give here.
JMU enters this weekend as the 15th-best team in offensive success rate (51.42%) and as the No. 1 team in defensive success rate (26.01%). For perspective, Arkansas State ranks 63rd and 92nd, respectively, in those categories. JMU quarterback Todd Centeio has thrown for 918-11-1 on the season while also rushing for 279 yards and another two scores. Rushing at a 57% rate, the Dukes have four players with over 100 rushing yards on the season and should find some room to run on Saturday against Arkansas State.
For the Red Wolves, QB James Blackman has thrown for 1,204-7-1 and has rushed for another 12-71-2. Known for his deep ball prowess, Blackman has a career ADOT of 9.9 but is playing things a little closer to the vest this season. His 7.5 ADOT is a significant drop from last season’s 11.4, but Blackman’s completion percentage has jumped by nearly nine points as a result. Blackman’s more conservative play style under center could help limit mistakes against the Dukes, but if JMU jumps out to a significant lead the Red Wolves could be forced to push the ball downfield, resulting in some mistakes. These two teams are a combined 9-0 ATS, but one team has the 4-0 W-L record and is performing like one of the nation’s top teams.
(YTD Record: 3-2 ATS)
