Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
Favorites come in all shapes and sizes in college football. While double-digit spreads are a relative rarity at the pro level, those numbers can vary wildly on Saturdays as teams dip in and out of conference play or step up (or down) a level in competition.
And while it’s often easy to be tempted to take a handful of points and hope for the best with a significant underdog, sometimes the favorites are favored for a reason. Each week our College Football staff will share their picks for which “chalk” favorite of 10 points or more will both win and, more importantly, cover the spread. (Note: We look at underdogs as well.)
Here are our staff’s picks for Week 8, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Clemson (-13.5) over Syracuse
Clemson has covered three straight games against Florida State, Boston College and NC State, and I like the Tigers’ chances to make it four straight.
Syracuse is coming off a win against NC State, who played without QB Devin Leary, and the Orange have wins of two and three points over Purdue and Virginia over their last four games. Syracuse haven’t had a convincing win since Week 1, other than beating lowly Wagner and UConn.
I do think Syracuse is a good team, but Clemson’s front seven should be too much and the Tigers’ offense has come alive, with at least 31 points in every game. Clemson only scored 31+ points in three games last season, with two of those against UConn and South Carolina State.
Clemson is much improved from the 17-14 win at Syracuse last year. This is in Death Valley. Give me the Tigers by 2+ touchdowns.
(YTD Record: 1-6 ATS)
Editor’s Note: Make NBC Sports Predictor a pregame ritual every week. Play Irish Pick ‘Em for free and have a chance to win $10,000 each week. From first downs to touchdowns you can win big! Click here to get started.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): James Madison (-12.5) over Marshall
Marshall is sputtering since their inspirational win against Notre Dame, one that was once looked upon as a potential springboard to a Sun Belt Championship. Instead, the Thundering Herd have dropped three straight against FBS opponents and are coming off a 23-13 loss to Louisiana where they managed to gain just 276 yards and 3.2 yards per carry while converting a brutal 1-for-11 on third down. The string of losses have the Herd faithful questioning the wisdom of removing longtime HC Doc Holliday in favor of second-year HC Charles Huff the season after Holliday led Marshall to a 7-3 record in the midst of a pandemic.
The Herd have the misfortune of traveling to play a 5-1 James Madison team that is coming off their very first loss of the season, a 45-38 shootout against Georgia Southern. Prior to that, the Dukes had run through Arkansas State, Texas State and Appalachian State while averaging 43 points and 520 total yards per game. They’re allowing just 20 PPG even after giving up 45 to Georgia Southern.
With Marshall scoring just 20 points combined over their last two contests, and Texas Tech transfer starting QB Henry Colombi injured and possibly not playing, I expect JMU to easily cover the 12.5-point spread.
(YTD Record: 3-3-1 ATS)
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Missouri (-14) over Vanderbilt
When looking over the board and finding teams I trust to cover double-digit spreads this week, my body starts to ache. Much of that has to do with underdogs covering 64% of the games they’ve played this season. The other part is that there are a lot of fraudulent teams laying way too many points this weekend. Missouri, though, is a team I like to cover the big spread this week. Yes, you read that correctly.
I am backing the Tigers to cover the 14-point spread against Vanderbilt. Neither team is particularly good, and both have losing records. But not all losses are considered equal. The Tigers are coming off three losses in one-score games against Auburn, Georgia and Florida. In those games, the defense shined through. I expect them to do the same against Vandy. The good news for the Tigers is that the Commodore defense isn’t any good. This game reminds me of the Louisiana Tech game, where Missouri was able to put 52 points up and hold their opponent to just 24.
Eli Drinkwitz is a good coach, and he will have his team ready for this game and ready to push for bowl eligibility.
(YTD Record: 4-3 ATS)
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Maryland (-13.5) over Northwestern
I’m somewhat putting my fate in the hands of Taulia Tagovailoa with this one, as the Terps’ quarterback is currently considered a game-time decision with a knee injury. Tagovailoa was listed atop the team’s depth chart earlier this week, but we’ll take that with a grain of salt.
Assuming he plays, Tagovailoa and the Terps play host to a lowly 1-5 Northwestern team that ranks 123rd in points per game (17.7) and 73rd in points allowed per game (27.7). The Wildcats are fresh off a bye week, making this play somewhat concerning, but are 2-4 ATS with their only win coming against a bad Nebraska team.
Northwesterns’ only other ATS win came on the road against Penn State, but this is also the same team that lost 31-24 at home to Southern Illinois despite being 13.5-point favorites. With a 4-3 record ATS and 5-2 record overall, the Terps have struggled to cover in their last two games against Purdue and Indiana but should have an easier time against a Northwestern squad that has scored 14 or fewer points in each of its last three games. Averaging 34 points per game, Maryland should find plenty of opportunities to score both through the air and on the ground. The Wildcats are allowing the 34th-most offensive yards per game and are 79th in overall defensive success rate (43.4%). Assuming Tagovailoa draws the start, I like the Terps to cover in a potential blowout.
(YTD Record: 4-3 ATS)