The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards.
Boise State (-2.5) vs Colorado State: O/U 51.5
Boise State and Colorado State have met 10 times over the last 10 years and you probably guessed it, Boise State has won all 10.
No seriously, the Broncos are 10-0 against the Rams, per NBC’s Edge Finder and yet tagged as a -135 ML favorite. That is disrespectful. The number below show 9-0 because in 2011, there was no odds on the ML, just a spread.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
[[ad:athena]]
Boise State plays the road favorite role often and well, at that. The Broncos have won 13 of the last 15 games as a road favorite (86.7%) in conference play, losing twice over the last five years in that role, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
They are 12-3 in the past 15 as a road favorite versus any conference (80%), including their own.
That makes it difficult to back Colorado State, don’t you say? Both teams have underwhelmed and took some tough losses from decent to above average teams.
Colorado State lost three of its first four games to South Dakota State, Vanderbilt and Iowa, before dropping a close contest to Utah State last week.
Boise State dropped competitive games to UCF, Air Force, Oklahoma State and Nevada -- losing all four by 23 combined points.
The Rams have only scored more than 24 points in two of its seven games so far, while the Broncos hit that five times in the same span. Both offenses are a bit different, and I favor Boise State’s starting with the quarterback play.
Colorado State’s signal-caller Todd Centeio has seven touchdowns to two interceptions for 230 passing yards per game. Boise State is a pass-first offense, so their numbers are much larger on that side, while Colorado State likes to mix it up.
The Broncos’ Hank Bachmeier averages 278 passing yards per game with 12 touchdowns to five interceptions. Through seven games, Bachmeier has thrown 29 or more passes in six and 34-plus attempts in five games.
The air raid will be needed as Colorado State has yet to be truly tested by an opponent. The Rams have faced a ton of ground and pound teams, and as a result, have 28 sacks (T-3rd).
That sack number is oddly high, but when you see they have 12 sacks combined against Toledo and New Mexico and 15 total in the three wins -- it makes a little more sense compared to 13 sacks in the four losses. They ran up the sack and pass defense numbers against dreadful teams.
Every team on Boise State’s schedule outside of UTEP has been respectable.
The Broncos lost three straight home games, including their last outing, but they are on the road where they are 2-1 with their best wins (At BYU, At Utah State) and a season-opening loss to UCF.
You could say Colorado State got caught looking ahead to Boise State last week when losing to Utah State (26-24), the same team Boise State beat 27-3 on the road.
The Rams’ coach keeps hyping up the media and his team that they have never beaten the Broncos, and it is coming, but I will believe it when I see it.
This Boise State team knows what they are up against, and they fumbled/missed opportunities last week to improve to a two-game winning streak. This Broncos’ defense has 17 takeaways on the year, which will be a key factor in this matchup against a boring quarterback.
I do not expect this to be a blowout like in years past, but Boise State is still big brother.
I played this at -135 and would play it to -150.
Pick: Boise State ML (2u)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
