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If there’s one thing I’ve become known for over the last two seasons, it’s my love of the troops and their football teams.
While the (literally) superior military academy team won’t be suiting up in Philadelphia this weekend, it’s hard to be down on the tradition that is the Army vs. Navy football game. A sporting event as American as apple pie, these two teams first clashed in 1890 on “The Plain” at the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York. Playing quite literally on a parade field, Navy, whose football program had been playing since 1979, defeated the newly formed Army football team 24-0 to kick off one of the longest-standing traditions in American sporting history.
Since that meeting in 1890, these two teams have met in all but 10 years following that game. The last time this rivalry was stalled was in 1929 during the Great Depression but since then these two sides have met every year since 1930.
With the two sides set to renew their rivalry on Saturday, let’s have a look at these two teams and find out where the best bet may lie.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Game History
Saturday marks the 121st meeting between Army and Navy
Navy is a lifetime 61-52-7 in series
Since 2002...
Navy has gone 16-4
The two sides are 10-10 ATS
The under is 17-2-1
The Offenses
As is often the case, neither of these teams is shy about running the ball. The Black Knights rank second in the nation with an 85.9% rush rate while Navy is third at 80.9%. For Army, quarterback Tyhier Tyler has led the way on the ground, rushing 120 times for 601 yards and 12 touchdowns, while running back Tyson Riley (93-435-2) and fullback Jakobi Buchanan (82-337-6) rank closely behind. The Knights rank 58th in the nation in points per game (29.4), but have ripped off a few high-scoring performances, going for 30+ points in six of their 11 games. They’ve gone for 40+ points on four occasions.
For the Midshipmen, fullback Daba Fofana leads the way on the ground with 175 carries for 749 yards and six touchdowns, while quarterback Tai Lavatai, who has thrown for 785-5-3 also has 309 rushing yards and five touchdowns to his name. Lavatai hasn’t played since Week 9 after suffering a knee injury and it appears unlikely he’ll be suiting up in this one, which could force Navy to put further emphasis on its ground game.
Despite their 4-7 record, Navy has turned in some impressive performances of their own this season, as evidenced by their 7-4 record ATS. with outright underdog wins over East Carolina and UCF, the Midshipmen also stayed within 10 points against Cincinnati in a 20-10 loss in Week 10, and hung 16 points on Notre Dame in the fourth quarter in a 35-32 defeat.
The Midshipmen are riding a 3-0 hot streak ATS after winning their regular-season finale over UCF and will look to close out the season with one more outright win over Army this weekend.
The Defenses
It’s not every day a military academy has a potential first-round draft pick on its roster, but Army just might have just that in EDGE Andre Carter. The 6-foot-7, 260-pound pass rusher is a long way off from the 15-sack season he had last year, totaling just four sacks on 21 pressures this season per PFF, but at any moment he’s capable of disrupting an offense.
Looking specifically at their ability to stop the run -- since we’ll be seeing a lot of that this weekend, Army has been highly susceptible to the ground game, ranking 128th in defensive success rate against the run (53.4%) while allowing the 17th-most rushing yards per game (193.5).
Navy, on the other hand, has been stout against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (85.6) while boasting a defensive rushing success rate of 35.1% -- good for 12th-best in the nation. Navy’s defensive front showed up in a big spot against UCF a few weeks ago, allowing just 14 points in the 17-14 road win while holding the Knights -- who are averaging 236.1 rushing yards per game, to just 84 rushing yards.
The Game
Navy enters this game as 2.5-point favorites on neutral turf. Despite the worst record, their recent streak of strong performances has the books high on them heading into this rivalry game. If I’m picking a team ATS, I’m going in on Navy at -2.5 as well. Despite going 1-2 in their last three games against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and UCF, the Midshipmen have hung tough against superior opponents. In each of those games, they were 15.5-point underdogs or worse, and came out to cover by 8.5, 14 and 18.5 points, respectively. In a game that will feature a lot of running, their stout run defense should give Army fits, while their rushing attack could cause just as many problems for Army on defense.
Additionally, if there’s anything we know about games played between military academies, it’s always bet the under. As previously mentioned, the under is 17-2-1 in the last 20 games played between these two teams and is 2-0 in academy games played this season.
PICKS: Navy -2.5 and UNDER 32.5
