Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
Perhaps my favorite article to put out on a week-to-week basis last season was this Group of Five article. Any chance to break away from the big dogs of the Power Five conferences and cover something a little less common is always fun.
As a matter of fact, it was this article that led to my obsession with Air Force football last season.
This season I have the opportunity to run back my favorite article once again!
At times I felt like I really tapped into these conference games, identifying some nice edges while also becoming familiar with some of the conference studs.
Air Force is back this week but gets a cupcake game against Northern Iowa -- meaning we’ll have to stay away from our beloved Falcons until Week 2 when they host Colorado.
But we’ve got some other exciting games coming up this weekend that I’m looking forward to putting some bets down on, so let’s get into it!
Wyoming (+6.5) vs. Tulsa - O/U 44
Wyoming saw a tough Week 0 matchup against Illinois turn into a wildly un-competitive game. The Cowboys were completely outproduced offensively last weekend in a 38-6 loss that saw them outgained 477-212 in offensive yards.
Cowboys transfer quarterback Andrew Peasley, in 2022, completed just six of 20 passes for 30 yards and one interception -- something I wouldn’t have thought possible in today’s modern game. It probably doesn’t help that last year’s leading receiver, Isaiah Neyor (44-878-12), transferred to Texas after last season. And Illinois running back Chase Brown was a problem for the Cowboys all day, as he rushed for 19-151-2 while also catching three passes for 16 yards and another score.
Wyoming could certainly bounce back at home this weekend, but last weekend’s start certainly sounded the alarm for a team whose projected win total was at 4.5 games entering the season.
Tulsa’s projected win total of 5.5 isn’t exactly blowing people away, but I did love the way quarterback Davis Brin pushed the ball downfield last season. Brin took a nice step forward in 2021 when he threw for 3,269 yards, 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while also rushing for 75 yards and another score.
Among G5 quarterbacks last season, Brin ranked ninth in ADOT (11.5) and was 11th with 24 big-time throws. Brin and the Wave will have to weather the loss of wide receiver Josh Johnson (83-1114-6) but return wide receiver J.C. Santana (51-689-3). Transfer wide receiver Isaiah Epps (11-171-1) also comes over from Kentucky and will look to serve as a big-bodied receiver downfield with his 6-foot-2, 189-pound frame.
Brin’s erratic passing needs to be improved on heading into 2022 after he completed just 59.3% of his passes last season -- ranking near the bottom of G5 quarterbacks. His 16 interceptions also led all G5 -- something else he’ll need to cut down on.
Tulsa is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games, and 7-3 on the moneyline. Despite being a flawed team in their own right, my confidence in Wyoming is lacking after last week’s showing.
Pick: Tulsa -6.5
Editor’s Note: CFB Pick’em on the NBC Sports Predictor app for a chance at $10,000 every week. It’s free and easy to play. From first downs to touchdowns you can win big! Click here to get started.
Coastal Carolina (-2) vs. Army - O/U 53.5
Led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the Chanticleers are heading into their third year of being #TeamFun. Last season, Coastal Carolina’s explosive offense ranked fifth in the nation in points per game (40.9) on their way to an 11-2 season. Grayson McCall threw for 2873-27-3 and rushed 93 times for 290 yards and another four scores. His decision to return for the 2022 season was met with delight, but McCall and head coach Jamey Chadwell have their work cut out for them heading into this season.
While McCall is back for another season, the Chanticleers find themselves without their two leading pass-catchers in wide receiver Jaivon Heiligh (66-1128-7) and tight end Isaiah Likely (59-912-12). Heiligh and Likely accounted for 59% of Coastal Carolina’s receiving yards, but former Georgia State wide receiver Sam Pinckney (27-311-1) could provide some much-needed relief in the passing game. Pinckney enjoyed a solid 2020 season in which he went for 47-815-7, and has averaged 14.8 yards per reception for his career.
Coastal Carolina also needs to overcome a depleted linebacker corps, and gets an early test against run-heavy Army.
Set to lead the Black Knights in 2022 is quarterback Tyhier Tyler, who impressed to the tune of 486 yards and seven touchdowns on 125 carries last season. Sharing the backfield with Tyler is fullback Jakobi Buchanan, whose 260-pound frame bullied its way to 12 touchdowns last season while rushing for a team-high 504 yards on 136 carries.
Defensively, Army was a stout unit in 2021, allowing just 22.3 points per game while featuring a pass rush led by EDGE Andre Carter. Carter is a legitimate first-round NFL talent heading into next year’s draft and finished second in the nation last season with 15.5 sacks. He also led the Black Knights with 17 tackles for a loss, frequently creating havoc in opposing backfields. His 93.4 PFF pass rush grade from last season tied for second with Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson and was narrowly behind Alabama’s Christopher Allen (95.2).
Entering this season with a projected win total of 8.5, these are the kind of wins Army will need to get there.
Since 2020, the Black Knights are 14-11 ATS and have performed well on the road going 4-3 ATS. Their ball-control style of play does wonders in limiting other teams’ scoring opportunities (which is probably why the under is 15-10 since 2020) and could create problems for a re-tooling Coastal offense.
Going with a military academy that runs the triple option is the closest I can get to writing about Air Force this weekend. I like Army to cover in this one but would also consider taking them outright at +108.
Pick: Army +2
2022 G5 Record: 0-0
Overall G5 Record: 14-10-1