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The books have been absolutely crushing G5 favorites this season. Through seven weeks, G5 teams are 96-120-4 ATS as favorites, despite going 161-59 on the money line. It’s great to see the favorites winning, but anybody (like myself) entrusting these teams to cover as favorites have been sorely disappointed.
San Jose State hit the road as 8.5-point favorites against Fresno State and a backup quarterback who had 431 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions through two starts. A scenario that sounded more than favorable for the 4-1 Spartans wound up being a trap game, as Fresno State downed their conference rivals by a score of 17-10.
Totals have felt nearly as tough, with the over/under in G5 games being a near 50-50 split through eight weeks.
A sloppy third quarter between Ohio and Western Michigan that featured four turnovers and zero points all but ensured that the game would fail to go over its 59.5-point projection after the two sides entered halftime with 34 combined points.
Officially past the midway point of the season, the grind is just getting started. As adjustments continue to be made, we return back to the battlefield for Week 8 of the college football season!
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Broncos are 4-2 on the season and 2-3-1 ATS but have flipped a switch with quarterback Taylen Green now under center. In Green’s two starts, the Broncos have gone 2-0 on the money line and ATS, outscoring their opponents 75-33 in the process.
Before heading into their Week 7 bye, the Broncos downed Fresno State by a score of 40-20, with Green throwing for 127-2-1 while adding another 8 carries for 26 yards. Green, a former three-star quarterback from the 2021 class, was listed as a dual-threat quarterback on his 247Sports’ recruiting page and was a track star a Lewisville High School. The redshirt freshman has rushed for 23-237-4 on the young season, with two games of 100+ yards on his resume.
Dating back to 2017, the Broncos are 5-3 ATS when coming off a bye, and 7-1 overall. After opening the week as 4.5-point underdogs, they’re now getting anywhere from one to 2.5 points depending on what book you’re looking at.
At 5-2, Air Force is 4-3 ATS but has struggled early against Mountain West opponents early, going 2-2 against conference foes, with their losses coming as 11.5 and 16.5-point favorites. In their Week 6 loss to Utah State, it was a mobile quarter, much like Green, who gave the Falcons fits. Making his second-career start against the Falcons, Legas rushed for 11-81-1 against the Falcons while also throwing for 214-2-1 on 23 pass attempts. Utah State downed the Falcons by a score of 34-27, despite being double-digit home dogs.
Air Force will look to establish the run with junior running back Brad Roberts, whose 853 rushing yards rank fifth in the nation, but the Broncos have proven stout on the defensive side of the ball. As a unit, the Broncos’ defense ranks eighth in the nation in overall defensive success rate (33.3%) but is first in the nation in success rate against the run (29.9%). Add to this the fact that the Falcons downed the Broncos 24-17 on the blue turf last season, and you have to think Boise State will enter Saturday with revenge on its mind.
As much as I love my Falcons, Boise State is coming off a week of rest and an exciting new quarterback who has hit the ground running through two starts. I like the Broncos to cover at +2 and would consider taking them as outright winners at this point.
Pick: Boise State +2
Much like Boise State, UTSA also enters Week 8 with a strong revenge game narrative. The Roadrunners suffered a 45-23 loss to the Mean Green last season, walking away as outright losers after entering the day as 8.5-point favorites. Now playing at home in 2022, UTSA will look to avenge last year’s loss with a blowout win of their own on Saturday.
Sitting at 5-2 on the season with a 3-4 record ATS, UTSA has reeled off four-straight wins and but are 1-3 ATS over that span. Quarterback Frank Harris has thrown for 2,307 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and has added another 23-322-5 on the ground.
Harris ranks sixth in the nation in passing yards per game (328.6) and gets a North Texas defense that’s ranked 109th in defensive success rate (46.7%) and 83rd in success rate against the pass (43.7%). Harris’ passing success is aided by a wide receiver group that boasts three receivers with 592 receiving yards or more, with De’Corian Clark (46-692-7) leading the way thus far.
For the Mean Green, a two-headed running back tandem of Ayo Adeyi (67-549-2) and Oscar Adaway III (101-530-5) will look to lead the way. Rushing at a 56.1% rate, North Texas’ offense will look to break through a UTSA run defense that ranks 11th in the nation in success rate against the run (33.8%).
Quarterback Austin Aune (1,693-17-8), who has struggled with accuracy issues (56.1 completion percentage), has been careless with the ball at times, tying for 18th in the nation in turnover-worthy plays (11) per PFF.com. UTSA’s defense has been vulnerable at times -- allowing 429.7 yards per game and 29.7 points per game but should have a chance to force a turnover or two on Aune, who is averaging more than one turnover per game.
Pick: UTSA -10
2022 G5 Record: 3-10-1
Overall G5 Record: 17-21-2