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Kickoff return touchdowns are fun to watch when they aren’t crushing your picks and taking your money. That’s what I learned in last week’s Houston (-13.5) vs. USF game, when USF running back Brian Battie took not one, but two kick returns for 100-yard touchdowns that created enough of a swing for USF to win against the spread in its 54-42 loss to Houston.
The lesson learned from this game was that I clearly don’t grind enough special teams data/tape. Chances are, you don’t either.
I was able to hang my hat on an elite Clayton Tune performance, as the Cougar’s quarterback completed 21-of-28 passes for 385 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. But Tune getting loony on the Bulls doesn’t win the big bucks.
My other pick for last weekend, San Diego State (-7) resulted in a push in what was a 17-10 win for the Aztecs in a low scoring affair. The game’s 27 point total fell well below its 45.5 point over/under, as both San Diego State and Hawaii struggled to get much going in this one.
Assuming the universe has gotten itself in order, and that special teams touchdowns become a thing of the past in Week 11, I feel safe enough to put my name on the line for two more Group of 5 picks this weekend.
Rice (+18) vs. Western Kentucky - O/U 61.5
When it comes to airing it out, not many quarterbacks know how to do it better than Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe.
Zappe leads the FBS in passing touchdowns (37) and yards (3,688) and has a 78.7% adjusted completion percentage on Pro Football Focus, which ranks 16th in the nation. As a team, the Hilltoppers are seventh in the nation in points per game (41.3), with a passing success rate of 52.2%, which ranks fourth in the nation.
They are 6-3 against the spread and have covered in three of their last four games by an average of 7.5 points per game.
On the flip side, when it comes to not covering games, the Rice Owls do as masterful a job as any team in the nation. The Owls are 2-7 ATS on the season, with one of their covers coming in a 30-24 upset win over UAB in a game that the Blazers were favored in by 23.5 points.
The problem for Rice is that upset win over UAB came with quarterback Wiley Green under center, and Green has been ruled out for the season. Green suffered an unspecified leg injury in Week 9’s loss to North Texas, after playing just eight snaps, which gave way to quarterback Jake Constantine.
On the season, Constantine has completed 84-of-132 passes on 151 drop backs, throwing for 1,059 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. As a team, Rice is averaging the 13th fewest points per game at 19.3, and is averaging just 2.5 touchdowns per game. Zappe on his own is averaging 4.1 touchdown passes per game, while Western Kentucky as a team is averaging 5.1 touchdowns per game.
The Owls’ struggles don’t end on offense. Defensively they are allowing the 13th most points per game (35.9) and sport one of the worst tackle grades (42.9) on PFF.com. Their rush defense grades out at 53.6 (107th), and while Western Kentucky doesn’t run often (24.4 attempts/gm) their two leading rushers are both averaging over five yards per carry.
I bet against Rice in Week 7 when they were 17 point road dogs to UTSA, only for the Roadrunners to cover with a 45-0 shutout. Jake Constantine quarterbacked that game for the Owls.
While I don’t think the Hilltoppers will shutout Rice in this one, I love them at -18 as a team that has been covering by more than a touchdown per game for the past month.
Pick: Western Kentucky (-18)
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Coastal Carolina (-10.5) vs. Georgia State - O/U 52
Coast Carolina will be without quarterback Grayson McCall (shoulder) for a few games after the redshirt sophomore quarterback suffered an injury in Week 9’s 35-28 win over Troy.
Playing in place of McCall will be backup quarterback, senior Bryce Carpenter, who threw for just 85 yards and one touchdown on 13-of-20 passing last weekend against Georgia Southern. Carpenter also rushed nine times for 66 yards and another score as the Chanticleers, without McCall, downed Georgia Southern 28-8, covering as 16 point favorites in the process.
Carpenter is a former two-star prospect from the 2018 recruiting class, who despite playing a limited role in his time at Coastal Carolina, has proven to be a productive player. He is a career 65.3% passer, having completed 154-of-236 passes for 1,641 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also rushed 204 times for 778 yards and three touchdowns.
If this game was being played by McCall, the Chanticleers would likely be laying a much bigger number than the 10.5 points they are here. But even without McCall, the Chanticleers may be getting underestimated by oddsmakers against a Georgia State team that ranks 111th in the nation in success rate allowed to opposing pass attacks (34.4%). Additionally, Coastal Carolina boasts the no. 1 passing offense in the nation in passing success rate (61.0%) and the no. 3 defense in the nation against passing success rate (31.2%).
The Chanticleers receiving corps features two of the best in the nation in tight end Isaiah Likely, and wide receiver Jaivon Heiligh. Likely is tops amongst the tight ends in every major receiving category, with a line of 37/632/8 on 49 targets. And Heiligh has caught 40 passes for 792 yards and five touchdowns.
Coastal Carolina is 5-3-1 ATS on the season, but have only covered in two of their past four games.
In the case of Georgia State, the Panthers are a solid 6-3 ATS, which includes covering as 27.5 point underdogs against Auburn in Week 4.
Defensively, the Panthers are allowing the 27th most passing yards per game (256.9) and the 34th most offensive yards per game (423.9). Offensively, they’re one of the more underwhelming units in the nation, totaling just 23.1 points per game while averaging the 12th fewest passing yards per game (156.2).
If the Panthers are to have a shot at winning this game, it will likely come on the shoulders of running back Tucker Gregg, who has rushed for 651 yards and five touchdowns on 119 carries, averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season.
Georgia State’s dual threat quarterback Darren Grainger could prove to be a difficult matchup for Coastal, having rushed for 466 yards and one touchdown on 80 carries while throwing for 1,022/12/3. But I would suspect the Chanticleers defense that is graded as one of the tops in the nation per PFF.com (83.6) and led by pass rushing extraordinaire Josaiah Stewart (22 pressures, 11 sacks) will do more than enough to limit Grainger and keep this game out of reach for the Panthers.
A bet on Coastal Carolina is a bet on the books not giving enough credit to the Chanticleers’ ability to put up points without McCall. Defensively, Coastal Carolina should hold its on against Georgia State on defense, they pitched a 51-0 shutout of the Panthers in 2020 in a game that Coastal entered as a four point favorite.
The Panthers have been solid ATS this season, but feel incorrectly valued given what we may know about Coastal Carolina not only on offense, but on the defensive side of the ball as well. And, while we haven’t mentioned their rushing attack, it should be pointed out that the Chanticleers are averaging the eighth most rushing yards per game in the nation at 229.1. Running back Shermari Jones is averaging a whopping 7.0 YPC, while rushing for 89/624/9.
I’m happy to lay the points in this one, and bank on Coastal’s offense still having enough of itself together to being explosive both in the air on the ground.
Pick: Coastal Carolina (-10.5)
2021 G5 Record: 9-7-1
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