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Just because the regular season is over doesn’t mean Group of 5 games go into hibernation. We’re just left with a limited selection to choose from this conference championship weekend.
But make no mistake about it, we’re getting those picks in.
Last weekend Air Force (-17.5) laid the hammer to UNLV in a game that was won in perfect Air Force fashion. Outside of the 48-14 victory, Air Force also rushed 68 times for 511 yards and six touchdowns. They threw exactly zero passes, just as head coach Troy Calhoun would want.
Perhaps the most exciting game however was Tulsa (+6.5) vs. SMU. Who I suggested may have enough to pull off the outright win if quarterback Davis Brin and his receivers play to the level they’re capable of.
Then, after being down 17-0 at one point, Tulsa and Brin rallied to defeat SMU 34-31, pulling off the outright win and becoming bowl eligible in the process.
Group of 5 games have brought us some exciting moments in recent weeks! With five conference championships games on tap this weekend, are are the two I’m targeting!
UTSA (+3.5) vs. Western Kentucky - O/U 72.5
The Roadrunners had been flirting with disaster over the last few weeks during their quest for an undefeated season. After going 0-2 ATS against Southern Miss (+32.5) and UAB (+4) in Week 11 and Week 12, UTSA finally slipped up in Week 3.
Heading into the week, UTSA was favored by as much as 13 points over North Texas, but that line settled at UTSA (-8.5) by kickoff.
It turns out, even that wasn’t enough of a correction, as North Texas pulled off what felt like the impossible, defeating UTSA 45-23, and becoming bowl eligible thanks in part to a five game win streak that drew them to a regular season record of 6-6.
As if the loss for UTSA wasn’t enough, head coach Jeff Traylor made the executive decision to bench quarterback Frank Harris, who had led the team to an 11-0 record up to that point, after the Roadrunners entered halftime facing a 31-13 deficit. There is some speculation that Harris was benched as an injury precaution, but it Harris didn’t suffer any noticeable injury in the first half, and reportedly wanted to go back in according to Traylor’s comments made after the loss.
Nevertheless, there’s no doubt that UTSA has been reeling as of late.
Western Kentucky on the other hand is rolling.
Quarterback Bailey Zappe leads the nation in passing with 4,928 passing yards and 52 touchdowns, and now has two games left to beat Joe Burrow‘s passing touchdown record (60) which he set in 2019.
These two teams squared off in Week 6 at UTSA, with the Roadrunners coming out on top by a score of 56-42. The teams were neck-and-neck throughout, as Harris through for 349/6/1, while Zappe finished the day with a line of 523/5/1.
Now, despite UTSA’s Week 6 win, the Roadrunners have been underdogs all week, with the line opening at UTSA (+1) and moving to UTSA (+3.5) as I write this article.
Even with the recent line movement, I’m still on the Hilltoppers this weekend, given their recent performances.
Western Kentucky is riding a seven game win streak, with its last lost being the game against UTSA.
During their win streak, the Hilltoppers are outscoring opponents 317-132. They’ve not allowed more than 21 points in any game during that span, and have been rather impressive defensively, allowing only 27.0 points per game despite allowing 76.6 plays per game (126th).
The Hilltoppers are fifth in the nation with a +11 turnover margin, coincidentally tying with UTSA, who also has a +11 turnover margin.
This game has all the makings of another shootout similar to what we saw in Week 6. But these are teams that have been heading in two different directions in recent weeks. While Western Kentucky blew teams out for seven straight weeks, UTSA struggled to beat a 1-8 Southern Miss team, and lost to a North Texas team that was 2-6 heading into November.
This line has only moved more in favor of Western Kentucky since it first opened. If you like them at -3.5, I’d jump on it now just in case it sees another bump before these two teams kick of at 7:00 PM EST.
PICK: Western Kentucky (-3.5)
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Cincinnati (-10.5) vs. Houston - O/U 53
I’m old enough to remember when Cincinnati needed to blow out some inferior opponents to be seriously considered as a contender in the college football playoffs.
Chances are you’re old enough to remember this as well but if not, allow me to refresh your memory.
Despite a solid 6-0 record heading into Week 8 against, which included a road win over Notre Dame, committees weren’t convinced that Cincinnati was ready to be the first G5 team to earn a playoff seed.
Blowout wins against upcoming opponents Navy, Tulane, Tulsa and South Florida was sure to convince those committees otherwise, as Cincinnati was favored by 22.5 points or more in each of those four contests. Unfortunately, those blowout wins never came. Cincinnati went 0-4 ATS against those teams, winning three of those games by eight points or fewer.
Offensively, Cincinnati does a lot of things well. They are 13th in the nation in overall success rate (49.3%), 10th in the nation in points per drive (3.0) and 13th in explosive play rate (15.0%). Despite these successes, the Bearcats offense is also 69th in three-and-out percentage (28.3%), and 116th in blitz down success rate (22.4%).
Now, Cincinnati gets a Houston defense that ranks fifth in the nation in success rate against (34.9%) and 11th in three-and-out percentage (39.2%). Houston also has a turnover differential of +11 on the year, and ranks second in overall havoc rate (19.9%), which is the percentage of plays a defense has recorded a tackle for a loss, a pass defensed (interception or breakup), and forced fumbles.
Houston also boasts an offense that ranks 21st in the nation in points per drive this season (2.80) and 18th in passing success rate (47.0%).
Quarterback Clayton Tune has thrown for 3,014 yards on the season to go with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and has also rushed for 277 yards and two touchdowns as he and the Cougars are averaging 38.8 points per game. Cincinnati ranks just ahead of Houston with 39.6 points per game.
AAC Rookie of the Year, freshman running back Alton McCaskill has also been a heavily utilized weapon for the Cougars this season. McCaskill has rushed 162 times for 844 yards and 16 touchdowns, and has another 17 receptions for 98 yards and one touchdown.
Houston is 7-5 ATS this season, and is covering by an average of 5.0 points per game. Cincinnati is also 7-5 ATS, but is 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Cincinnati has won each of its last two matchups against Houston, winning by 28 and 15 points respectively.
With that being said, Houston’s offense and defense have both taken significant steps forward in 2021, and I’m confident that the Cougars can keep the game within the current 10.5 point spread.
PICK: Houston (+10.5)
2021 G5 Record: 14-8-1
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