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Through two weeks of the G5 Spotlight, we sit at 2-2 after going 1-1 with our picks in each of the first two weeks.
This past week, we liked Air Force (-4) against FAU, which hit in a tremendous way as the Falcons downed the Owls 31-7. But we missed on Louisiana-Lafayette (-14.5) over Georgia Southern, with ULL failing to cover in its 28-20 victory.[[ad:athena]]
As the chase for a perfect 2-0 week continues, let’s take a look at two more Group of 5 games that we like heading into this weekend.
Army (-9) at Ball State
There are teams in the country who have been worse than Ball State this season, but not many.
The Cardinals have struggled on their way to a 1-3 record, with their lone win coming against FCS Western Illinois in Week 1 by a score of 31-21. Ball State was favored by 31 entering the game, and failed to cover the spread in its narrow victory, something that has also been a problem all season.
The Cardinals are 0-4 against the spread, having lost each of their three games to FBS schools by a combined score of 111-37. In those losses, the Cardinals have lost by 10 or more points in each contest, with its closest game coming in a 22-12 loss to Toledo last week.
Ball State hasn’t put more than 13 points on the board against any of its FBS opponents, and currently ranks 117th in the nation in yards per game (318.5) and 120th in points per game (17.0).
Now they get a home matchup against Army, who is 16th in the nation in yards allowed per game (277.8) and 40th in points allowed (19.0). Army quarterback Christian Anderson has been putting in work on the ground for the Black Knights. He currently leads the team in rushing with a line of 58/431/5, as the Black Knights boast one of the top rushing attacks in the nation at 344.5 yards per game.
Army is just 2-2 against the spread this season, but had a strong win over Miami (OH) last week in a 23-10 home game in which Army was a 7.5-point favorite. Army ranks 18th in the nation in points per game (39.0) and according to Pro Football Focus, is graded as the 29th best offense (80.2).
Ball State’s offense is led by running backs Will Jones and Carson Steele, as the two have combined for 361 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 83 carries. Quarterback Drew Plitt has struggled early on. He’s completed 61.3% of his passes for 614 yards and has just two touchdown passes to one interception.
Should Ball State fall behind early and be forced into throwing, Plitt may struggle against an Army defense that is ranked 27th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades (83.5).
According to our NBC Sports Edge Top Trends tool, Ball State is 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 homes game.
Expect this trend to continue on Saturday when the Cardinals host Army.
Pick: Army (-9)
Kent State (-16.5) vs. Bowling Green
The college football world seemed completely shocked when Bowling Green knocked off Minnesota last week by a score of 14-10. Bowling Green entered the game as 30.5-point road dogs, but walked away victorious, and with a 2-2 record as they now prepare for another road matchup against 1-3 Kent State.
Through the first four games of the season, Bowling Green has been underdogs in all of them. And in all four of those games, Bowling Green has covered.
Now heading into Week 5 against Kent State (1-3), Bowling Green is a 16.5-point underdog, and it’s starting to look disrespectful.
So what do we know about Bowling Green?
We know that offensively they are not very good. They average 16.5 points per game, which ranks 123rd in the nation, and only 270.3 yards per game, which is the seventh-fewest.
But we also know that defensively they have been very solid. Even against a Tennessee team that beat them 38-6, Bowling Green’s defense was good enough to cover as 37-point road dogs.
The Falcons are allowing only 321 yards per game to opposing offenses, and are allowing only 20 points per game. They are also one of the most disciplined teams on defense, as their 4.8 penalties per game are the 16th fewest of any team in the country.
Now Bowling Green gets a matchup against Kent State, whose three losses have come against very good teams in Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, but in their defeats, points have been hard to come by for Kent State, who ranks 101st in points per game with 23.5.
Kent State has largely gotten by on an offense that features a heavy dose of rushing. Running backs Xavier Williams and Marquez Cooper have combined for a rushing line of 87/444/1, while quarterback Dustin Crum has rushed 43 times for 118 yards and a touchdown as well.
Offensively for Bowling Green, quarterback Matt McDonald is the straw the stirs the drink. He’s attempted 133 passes through just four games, but only has 886 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions to show for it. Bowling Green does have four pass-catchers over 100 receiving yards this season, and three over 170 receiving yards. Receiver Austin Osborne leads all receivers with 25 receptions for 181 yards, but has failed to find the end zone.
Touchdowns have been hard to come by for Bowling Green. They have only six offensive touchdowns on the season, which feels like a number destined to trend in the other direction for a team that is throwing the ball 33.8 times per game.
As the Falcons prepare to put their perfect 4-0 record ATS the spread against the Golden Flashes’ and their 1-3 record ATS, it’s important to remember that we don’t need Bowling Green to win, just cover.
I like Bowling Green to cover as underdogs this weekend, as oddsmakers hope that Week 6 is the week they can finally get this team right.
Pick: Bowling Green (+16.5)
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