Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
Betting on my Falcons to pull me through, I saw not one, but two major disappointments in Week 6.
Not only did my Air Force Falcons fail to cover at -10.5 against Utah State, but they walked away as outright losers to Utah State and newly minted starter Cooper Legas.
Legas appears to have infused some life into Utah State over the last two weeks. After nearly pulling off the upset win against BYU in his first career start, Legas kept the Aggies on schedule all day long against the Falcons last week. Throwing for 215-2-1 on the day, his mobility also proved problematic for Air Force, as he turned 13 carries into 76 yards and a touchdown, leading his team to a 34-27 conference win.
Looking at another Falcons team, Bowling Green’s Matt McDonald took a trip back to earth last weekend against Buffalo after four weeks of unworldly play -- at least by McDonald’s standards.
In last week’s game between Buffalo and Bowling Green, the 54.5-point total felt like a surefire bet to hit the over. The over was a combined 8-2 on the season between these two heading into the game and was on pace to hit after the first quarter when Buffalo led 17-0.
Unfortunately, 54.5 points proved to be too much for McDonald and the Falcons, who simply weren’t up to the task -- managing just one touchdown in the 38-7 defeat. Props to Buffalo and Cole Snyder for holding up their end of the bargain, but it generally takes two to tango if these overs are going to hit.
Looking at two more conference matchups this weekend, here are the games I’m targeting in what’s shaping up to be an exciting Week 7.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Things haven’t gone as planned for Fresno State in what’s expected to be Jake Haener‘s final season. After opting to return for the 2022 season, Haener has been injured since week three and is expected to miss this weekend’s game against the Spartans.
With Haener under center, the Bulldogs went 1-2. In their last two games without him, Fresno State has gone 0-2 with losses to UConn and Boise State. Entering 2022 with an over/under of nine wins and the third-best odds to win the conference, it’s been a rapid fall from grace for the Bulldogs, and it might not get any better this weekend.
In addition to their 1-5 record, the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by more than a touchdown in all but one game on the season. Backup quarterback Logan Fife has thrown for 431-0-4 on the season and gets a Spartans defense that’s forcing 1.2 interceptions per game and ranks ninth in points allowed per game (14.0).
Offensively, the Spartans are humming to the tune of 28.8 points per game, with quarterback Chevan Cordeiro throwing for 1,308-8-0 while rushing for another 60-186-6. Cordeiro’s six rushing scores lead the Spartans while running back Kairee Robinson is close behind with a rushing line of 63-303-5.
The Bulldogs’ offense struggling under Fife is understandable, but for a defense that returned seven defensive starters, they rank 88th in points allowed per game (29.2) and are allowing the 44th-most yards per game at 397.2.
San Jose State opened as 6.5-point favorites only to see that number driven up throughout the week. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS on the season and have covered in dominant fashion, beating the spread by 16, 21.5, 14.5 and 26.5 points, respectively.
The Spartans suffered a 40-9 home loss in this game last season, and now look to repay the favor in Fresno State territory.
Pick: San Jose State -8.5
If you’ve read my CFB DFS Week 7 column, you know that I’m on a handful of players from Ohio this weekend. The Bobcats get a Western Michigan defense that ranks 123rd in defensive success rate (48.9%) and 104th in success rate against the pass (46.2%), which could prove beneficial for Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke.
Rourke, who has thrown for 1,944-14-2 on the season is fifth in the nation in passing yards and 10th in completion percentage (70.9%). He’s also turned 29 of his deep ball attempts into 548 yards and five touchdowns, looking like one of the nation’s more explosive passers.
Ohio has four receivers with 250+ yards on the season, with slot receiver Sam Wiglusz (35-443-5) leading the way. The Bobcats boast an offense that’s averaging 33.2 points per game but is also running out a defense that’s allowing the fifth-most points per game (40.7).
The Bobcats have yet to hold an opponent under 31 points this season and allowed a whopping 52 points to Fordham in Week 4 in a game that combined for 111 points. The over is 5-1 in Ohio’s six contests and feels like a good bet to hit this weekend.
We’ve already touched on Western Michigan’s defensive struggles, which have led to them surrendering 30.8 points per game, but the Broncos offense should find some scoring opportunities of their own.
Western Michigan’s opening schedule has been no cakewalk. On one hand, they have wins over Ball State and New Hampshire but combined for 32 points in games against two Power Five teams (Michigan State/Pittsburgh) and a stout San Jose State defense. In two MAC conference games, the Broncos have combined for 60 points and saw the over hit in each contest.
Quarterback Jack Salopek has thrown for 982-6-5 while completing 50% of his passes, while the two-headed rushing attack of Sean Tyler (81-333-3) and La’Darius Jefferson (55-232-5) have stabilized the rushing attack. Salopek struggled in last week’s loss to Eastern Michigan, going 15-of-40 passing for 208 yards and two touchdowns, but the Broncos have seen nine of their 15 touchdowns come against MAC opponents.
Dating back to last season, the over has 10-9 in Western Michigan’s games and is 5-2 in their last seven home games. Their defensive struggles have certainly helped push these games over the top, but their offense should add some scores against Ohio’s struggling defense.
Pick: OVER 59.5
2022 G5 Record: 3-8-1
Overall G5 Record: 17-19-2
