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A slow start to the 2022 season had me on a full pivot. After starting 3-6-1 ATS to open the season, flipping the script in Week 5 seemed like the most natural way to get off an early streak of bad breaks.
Something I didn’t do much of last season was bet totals. Sticking strictly to the spread, there was nothing more fun than predicting the score differential in a game and seeing it hit. Now, with so much information at our disposal, I thought 2022 would be a great time to expand my betting horizons.
Admittedly, I love rooting for points. A low-scoring affair does little to excite me, while an unexpected shootout between any two teams will keep me entertained throughout. As a result, I now spend my time moonlighting as somebody obsessed with chasing the over.
I put this to work last week in hopes of switching up my G5 record. The results were a 1-1 finish in the ol’ weekly column, but it’s progress!
UNLV and New Mexico narrowly hit the projected total of 44 last weekend, as the Rebels came away 31-20 winners. While a Kent State vs. Ohio matchup that saw the Flashes walk away 31-24 winners failed to cover the 65.5 point total -- despite an overtime period giving me hope that the two sides could squeak it through.
Nevertheless, totals continue to be a fun way to chase success this season. I’ve got one more on tap for this week.
Looking to pull a double-Falcon (whatever that is) in Week 6, here are the two G5 games I’ve got my eye on this weekend.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
My Falcon senses are absolutely tingling for this one. Air Force is laying 10.5 points as home favorites against Utah State. The Falcons should have revenge on their minds after losing 49-45 at home to the Aggies last season and have a chance to catch them in a down season.
Utah State went 11-3 last season and ended the year as Mountain West champions. Unfortunately, the loss of wide receiver Deven Thompkins (102-1704-10) has made for a difficult adjustment for an Aggies team that saw seven offensive starters return in 2022.
After throwing for 3628-36-12 last season, quarterback Logan Bonner has thrown for 753-6-8 to start this season, but a season-ending foot injury allowed Cooper Legas to draw the start in Week 5 against BYU. In that game, Legas threw for 188-2-2 in hostile territory and added 57 yards and another score on the ground. Legas showed up in a big spot for the Aggies last week, but with some game film on junior signal-caller, Air Force shouldn’t be caught off guard by much on Saturday.
Even if Legas does infuse some life into the Aggies, there’s not much he’ll be able to do for his team on defense.
Utah State stands to be severely overmatched against an Air Force team that’s rushing at an 84.2% rate. The Aggies’ run defense ranks 50th in defensive rushing success rate (39.9%), but will need to slow a Falcons rushing attack that ranks 11th in rushing success rate (55.1%).
Leading this attack is Brad Roberts (91-573-7). Roberts is averaging a solid 6.3 YPC on the season and leads all Mountain West backs in rushing. Roberts is on pace to defend his 2021 MWC rushing title, and is joined by running back John Lee Eldridge, who has been problematic for opposing defenses.
Through five games, Eldridge has rushed 44 times for 407 yards and one touchdown. His 9.3 YPC leads the nation per PFF, while his 5.02 YCO/ATT is tied for sixth-best. Eldridge has seen double-digit carries just once through five games but has posted two 100+ yard performances on the season.
The Falcons are also known for surprising defenses through the air. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels has attempted just 35 passes on the season, but is averaging 10.7 YPA and a 14.7 ADOT. He’s thrown for 374 yards and four touchdowns on the season, with his touchdown passes coming from nine, 41, 67 and 80 yards out.
In a lot of ways, this game looks like a pro-Falcons mismatch on paper -- hence the 10.5-point spread heading into the day. The Falcons are 3-2 ATS on the season. They suffered an outright loss to Wyoming and won a rivalry game against Navy by a field goal. Utah State, on the other hand, is 1-4 ATS but did cover in a tough road game against BYU.
Last week’s performance against BYU could be a sign of trouble for the Falcons on Saturday, but I expect Coach Calhoun and company to hit the road with bad intentions as they look to rebound from a disappointing home loss last season.
Pick: Air Force -10.5
I don’t care who wins this one, I’m just chasing points.
I’ve taken great pleasure in cheering for offensive explosions over the last few weeks, and this MAC matchup between Bowling Green and Buffalo could very well evolve into a shootout.
The over is a combined 8-2 between these two teams, with the over hitting in all five of Bowling Green’s contests. When the Falcons played host to Eastern Kentucky in Week 2, the over/under of 57 hit in a big way, and ended in a 59-57 Bowling Green loss.
To the Falcons’ credit, quarterback Matt McDonald, who is entering his 15th season with the team, has been solid. McDonald has played a key role in the overs hitting. He’s averaging 3.3 touchdown passes per game, and has limited himself to just one turnover on the season.
With a line of 937-13-1 on the season, McDonald is on pace to smash his 2021 numbers. His 13 touchdown passes are already a career-high. Throwing at a 55% rate, Bowling Green is one of the more pass-heavy teams in the nation and gets a Buffalo defense that ranks 121st in defensive success rate against the pass. Wide receiver Odieu Hilarie (17-243-4) has provided consistent production both out wide and from the slot and is averaging 14.3 YPR.
Like Bowling Green, Buffalo is another pass-friendly team. The Bulls rank 44th in the nation in passing success rate (45.7%) and are led by quarterback Cole Snyder (1,216-8-3). The Rutgers transfer is tied for 48th in the nation with a 9.8 ADOT and has been aggressive through the air, averaging 5.6 deep balls per game -- tied for 21st in the nation per PFF.
Neither of these defenses has done well at stopping the pass. The Falcons are allowing a passing success rate of 47.7% (113th in the nation) while the Bulls are allowing a passing success rate of 49.6% (121st in the nation).
To date, both defenses are allowing 41.6 and 31.4 points per game -- respectively. The last three games played between these two teams have hit totals of 100, 59 and 56 points. The recent history between these two teams and the lack of defense both have displayed through five weeks making the over/under of 54.5 feel laughably low.
Pick: OVER 54.5
2022 G5 Record: 3-6-1
Overall G5 Record: 17-17-2
