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As the College Football regular season heads past the halfway point, one thing is clear: CJ Stroud has one hand on the Heisman Trophy.
The Ohio State quarterback has dazzled while leading the Buckeyes to an undefeated record and No. 1 ranking in the latest AP poll. Through six games, Stroud has thrown for 1,767 yards and 24 touchdowns against just three interceptions and the Buckeye offense has been unstoppable since a 21-10 opening win over Notre Dame, scoring at least 45 points in each of the subsequent five games. Last week Stroud had more touchdown passes (6) than incomplete passes (5) while leading Ohio State to a 49-20 win over Michigan State.
It’s no surprise, then, to see that Stroud has become a clear favorite to win the Heisman. After starting the season in the +200 range, Stroud is now down to -155 at BetMGM with no other player shorter than +1000 odds.
Updated odds to win Heisman Trophy (via BetMGM)
-155: CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
+1000: Caleb Williams (USC)
+1400: Hendon Hooker (Tennessee), Bryce Young (Alabama)
+1600: Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA)
+2000: DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson), Blake Corum (Michigan)
+2500: Adrian Martinez (Kansas State), Drake Maye (North Carolina)
+3000: Stetson Bennett (Georgia), Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama)
+4000: Sam Hartman (Wake Forest), Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State)
+5000: Will Anderson (Alabama), Max Duggan (TCU)
+8000: Bo Nix (Oregon)
+10000: Bijan Robinson (Texas), J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), Quinn Ewers (Texas), Miyan Williams (Ohio State)
With a number of notable showdowns on the Week 7 slate, several of these Heisman contenders face big tests this coming Saturday: Hooker and Young will go toe-to-toe in Knoxville, while Williams will pass on a stern Utah defense, Uiagalelei takes on Florida State in a road tilt and Corum tries to run on an undefeated Penn State front seven.
Given those matchups, there’s a strong chance this odds board could tighten in the coming days and weeks. So we asked two of our College Football writers: if you’re not backing Stroud as the front-runner, which player offers some intriguing upside (and betting value) heading into one of the biggest weeks of the season?
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama), +3000
Alabama’s easy schedule did Jahmyr Gibbs no favors through the first four weeks. The Tide had a close call against Texas in Week 2 but walked through Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe and Vanderbilt. Through those four games, Gibbs never exceeded nine carries in a game, saw a high of 93 rushing yards and didn’t score his first rushing touchdown until Week 5 against Arkansas.
He did find the end zone on three receiving scores over that span, but now in conference play, Bama has looked to lean on Gibbs a bit more. Over the last two games, the Georgia Tech transfer RB has totaled 39 carries for 360 yards and two scores and has added another five catches for 33 yards. QB Bryce Young (shoulder) was held out of last week’s matchup with Texas A&M and is questionable this week against Tennessee. However, even if Young returns this week, Gibbs should continue to be a focal point of the Bama offense going forward.
An elite receiver out of the backfield, Gibbs is third on his team in receiving yards (220) and leads all players with 22 receptions. His 24 targets are good for second-most on the team.
Despite his limited workload to start the season, Gibbs ranks fifth among all backs in total yards from scrimmage (752) and is first in yards per touch at 8.7 (min. 50 carries). As a rusher, Gibbs is third in the nation in YPC at 8.3. He has the benefit of not facing Georgia in the regular season but faces three defenses that rank inside the top 60 in rushing yards allowed per game. He also gets a friendly matchup against Austin Peay in his second-to-last game of the regular season. If Gibbs pads his stats through the second half of the year, he’ll do so against some tough competition and could play a key role in leading an undefeated team to the SEC Championship game.
The Heisman voters love awarding the Heisman to non-quarterbacks whenever the opportunity presents itself. The Alabama and/or SEC bias also holds particularly strong. Since 2000, a quarterback has won the Heisman on 18 of 22 occasions. The other four winners were Reggie Bush (2005), Mark Ingram (2009), Derrick Henry (2015) and Devonta Smith (2020). Of those four players, the last three have been skill position players for Bama - two of them running backs. At +3000, there’s value on Gibbs.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): RB Bijan Robinson (Texas), +10000
When parsing Heisman odds halfway through the 2022 season, I feel like this particular line jumped out as being the most plausible longshot scenario. For starters, Robinson is the consensus best running back in the country, talent-wise, and will almost assuredly be the first RB off the board in next year’s NFL Draft. So far he has produced 141.3 total yards per game with 11 touchdowns for a two-loss Texas team that’s in position to potentially run the table in the second half now that star QB Quinn Ewers is back under center.
If the Longhorns rally to win the Big XII, the Ewers/Robinson tandem will be the story of the season, with Bijan having the Heisman edge due to not missing the playing time Ewers did. Plus, when you peel back the layers of Robinson’s first half, he’s ranked fourth overall in PFF run grade, third in yards after contact (4.36) and yards per route (1.97), while leading the nation in broken tackles with 49. The eyeball test is easy, as Robinson blends speed, burst, power and long speed into a devastating rushing profile. Here is a do-it-all run from last year’s Red River game that shows what Robinson is capable of:
This run from Bijan Robinson last year vs. OU was galvanizing! pic.twitter.com/wm4aTLKRbY
— Hook'em Headlines (@HookemHeadlines) October 5, 2022
With four straight 100-yard games of momentum behind him, and the meat of the Big XII schedule ahead, Robinson will be receiving 20+ touches per game as Texas continues their quest to reach the conference title game. The Longhorns will need to win out to make this bet happen, which is why this is a 100/1 longshot, but if they do Robinson will at least be invited to New York. That’s why he is my favorite Hail Mary Heisman play at the halfway point.
