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“Those are the breaks,” I whispered to myself as I watched last week’s Notre Dame vs. Clemson contest come to a close.
My official pick of under 44 was very much in play, as Notre Dame lead 14-0 heading into the fourth quarter. Even if the two sides somehow combined for four touchdowns in the final quarter, there was a chance that the under would it. It was obviously going to happen.
Until, of course, it didn’t.
Two wildly unpredictable (and somewhat bad) teams came up big in unpredictable ways in the fourth quarter, as they combined for five touchdowns in the fourth quarter, with Notre Dame walking away 35-14 winners.
The Irish have now won three straight. The Irish, who were unable to beat Marshall, barely beat Cal, lost as 16.5-point home favorites to Stanford and failed to cover against UNLV just went out and handed 8-0 Clemson their first loss of the season.
Perfectly normal stuff, of course.
Now entering this weekend as 15.5-point road favorites to Navy, the Irish look to push their winning streak to four-straight games.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Notre Dame
Lovers of the ground game, Notre Dame will grind out a high-volume rushing attack as long as game script allows. In this weekend’s game against Navy, the script should be more than favorable for a run-heavy attack. The books expect Notre Dame to be in control throughout most of this matchup -- as indicated by the 15.5-point spread.
Boasting a 60.7% rush rate, Notre Dame leaned heavily on the running game last weekend against Clemson. Running backs Logan Diggs and Audric Estime combined to run 35 times for 218 yards and one touchdown, gouging the Tigers for 6.2 YPC.
After a slow start to the season, Diggs has seen a bigger role in Notre Dame’s offense during their three-game win streak.
During that span, Diggs has led the Irish with 329 rushing yards with just one touchdown and is averaging 5.1 YPC on his touches. Notre Dame’s offense has lacked explosiveness, with their backfield totaling just 337 breakaway yards (37.4 breakaway YPG) per PFF. However, their desire to establish it cannot be denied.
The Irish are 10th in the nation in rush rate and face a Navy defense that ranks 116th in yards allowed per play (6.2). However, the Midshipman are one of the best defenses in the nation against the run, allowing just 88.0 rushing yards per game, which could push the Irish away from their game plan a bit.
Navy
In true military academy fashion, Navy ranks third in the nation in rush rate (79.5%), with Air Force and Army being the two most run-heavy teams in the nation.
Leading the way for the Midshipman is fullback Daba Fofana (148-493-5), with running back Maquel Haywood (64-410-0) and quarterback Tai Lavatai (104-353-5) trailing closely behind.
Lavatai brings plenty of experience to the table in this one, as the junior quarterback has started each of the last two seasons for Navy, throwing for 1,236-10-5 while rushing for another 260-794-12 during that span. Navy has surprised opponents a few times through the air this season -- chucking the ball 20 times in a 13-10 loss to Navy. Lavatai will take shots when given the opportunity, with his 15.7 aDOT ranking second in the nation among qualified quarterbacks.
He’s completing just 36.7% of those deep passes -- far from great -- but we’ve seen these run-heavy military academies shock opposing defenses with a long score before. Whether or not Navy can shock Notre Dame with one or two big plays through the air could be the difference maker in this game, but it won’t come easy.
The Irish are allowing the 33rd-fewest passing yards per game on the season (203.3), and are allowing the sixth-worst success rate to opposing offenses against the pass (31.8%). On the ground, opposing offenses are averaging just 3.8 YPC against the Irish.
Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor
Notre Dame Passing Yards
This one feels like a copout, but it went well last week and makes a lot of sense again this weekend. Quarterback Drew Pyne threw for just 85 yards in last week’s win over Clemson, and has thrown for 200+ yards in just three of his seven starts. The Irish have arguably the best tight end in the nation in Michael Mayer (51-624-7), but are lacking at receiver. As previously mentioned, the Irish are one of the most run-heavy teams in the nation and face a Navy team that runs the ball at the third-highest rate in the country. It’s also worth noting that these two teams are two of the slowest in pace of play. Navy is the ninth-slowest team in pace of play, with the Irish coming in as the 18th-slowest team in the nation. Sure, the Irish could crank off a few big passes and ruin this one, but it feels unlikely, despite Navy allowing 275.0 passing yards per game.
Notre Dame Passing Yards: <200
Notre Dame Pass Completions
Again, this feels like cheating, but we’ll ride with it for back-to-back weeks. Notre Dame doesn’t pass, they aren’t good at passing, and if they can avoid it this weekend, they will. Pyne has completed 14 or fewer passes in four-straight games and has completed nine passes in each of his last two. Over that span, he’s also failed to complete better than 52.9% of his passes in any game. The slow pace between these two teams and lack of passing suggests Pyne will have another low-volume passing day this weekend.
Notre Dame Pass Completions: 0-16
The Game
I dread betting on any game involving the Irish. Last week only added to my disdain for betting on this team that can’t seem to do anything right by their own standards, or that of the sports books. Looking at how both Notre Dame and Navy have fared ATS this season, the 15.5-point line in this one feels like a giant pain. Both teams are 5-4 ATS on the year, while the over is a combined 9-8-1.
Notre Dame finding a way to break Clemson’s stout defense last weekend would lead us to believe they could easily cover in this one, but again, this team has been unpredictable in every sense of the word. The slow pace of play between these two teams makes the under an enticing play. As does their lack of offensive explosiveness. That lack of explosiveness will only be further amplified as both teams attempt to breach stout rushing defenses for 60 minutes.
Navy covering the 15.5 line at home wouldn’t surprise me, but I’ll run it back with the under this weekend in hopes of things breaking a little better in my favor.
Pick: Under 39.5
2022 Record: 24-36-1
