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Notre Dame football is back, and the Irish start the season off with a bang when they face off against the Buckeyes under the lights in Columbus.
Winners of the last four contests, Ohio State last played Notre Dame in 2016 -- defeating the Irish 44-28 in the Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl. Prior to that, the two met in the Fiesta Bowl in 2006, with quarterback Troy Smith’s 342-yard, two-touchdown effort being enough to give the Buckeyes a 34-20 win.
Things haven’t gone well for Notre Dame in this matchup as of late, but new head coach Marcus Freeman will look to right the ship this weekend.
Freeman takes over for the now departed Brian Kelly, taking over a team that has won 10 or more games in each of the last five seasons.
With a new head coach and quarterback under center, Notre Dame heads into this weekend’s matchup as the fifth-ranked team in the nation -- the Buckeyes come at No. 2. In a game that should be one of the more exciting ones that Week 1 has to offer, here’s the tale of the tape for this heavyweight bout.
Ohio State
Ohio State enters 2022 fresh off a 2021 season in which they went 11-2 -- closing out their year with a Rose Bowl win over Utah in comeback fashion.
At quarterback, the Buckeyes have the potential No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft in C.J. Stroud. A Heisman Trophy finalist last season, Stroud threw for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns and six interceptions. Despite losing wide receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to the 2022 NFL Draft, our own Eric Froton pointed out that the Buckeyes return 72% of their offensive production from last season -- a big part of that being Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
While it was Olave and Wilson who made the leap to the NFL, it was JSN who was arguably the Buckeyes’ best receiver in 2021. The junior receiver totaled 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging an impressive 16.9 yards per reception. Per Pro Football Focus, JSN led all Power Five receivers in yards last season and had the highest grade of any receiver at 91.7. Adding to his accolades from last season, he also hauled in 72.2% of his deep targets -- the best of any Power Five receiver last season (min. 10 deep targets).
In addition to the return of JSN, Ohio State also has running back TreVeyon Henderson returning to the fold. Last season, as a true freshman, Henderson took the lead back role for the Buckeyes and turned it into 183-1248-15 while also catching 27 receptions for 312 yards and another four scores. Henderson is quickly molding himself into one of the top backs in the nation, and should once again be a key part of Ohio State’s success in 2022. His 4.31 YCO/ATT ranked 13th in the nation last season while his 593 breakaway rush yards was good for 12th.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Buckeyes return eight defensive starters, including middle linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, whose 6.5 TFLs last season ranked second behind defensive tackle Haskell Garrett. The Buckeyes should offer plenty on defense to give first-year starting quarterback Tyler Buchner fits in his first career start.
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Notre Dame
As previously mentioned, sophomore quarterback Tyler Buchner is set to take the helm at quarterback following Jack Coan‘s departure. A four-star quarterback from the 2021 recruiting class, Buchner’s debut as a starter comes on one of the biggest stages college football has to offer.
A four-star recruit from the 2021 class, Buchner was the No. 11 ranked quarterback per 247Sports composite rankings and the 71st-ranked player in his class overall.
In limited action as a freshman, he completed 21-of-35 passes for 298 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions while also rushing for 46-336-3. Buchner’s rushing ability is one of his greatest assets, and will likely be leaned on heavily not just in this Week 1 matchup, but throughout much of the regular season.
Notre Dame has some work to do on the offensive side of the ball outside of getting Buchner acclimated. Last year’s leading rusher, Kyren Williams, is now in the NFL and accounted for 1,361 yards from scrimmage along with 17 touchdowns. Leading receiver Kevin Austin (48-888-7) is gone as well, but the Irish do return tight end Michael Mayer, who is looking to make his case for the No. 1 tight end of the 2023 NFL Draft -- assuming he declares after this season.
Mayer doesn’t have much to prove at this point after totaling 113 receptions for 1,290 yards and nine touchdowns in his first two seasons on campus. Last season he broke out for a receiving line of 71-840-7 on 95 targets. He ranked 16th among tight ends in yards per route run (1.99) and saw 49.1% of his snaps come from the slot.
While Mayer should be leaned on as one of Notre Dame’s top targets this season, returning receivers from last season will need to step up to fill the void vacated by Austin. Junior running back Chris Tyree should serve as the team’s starter after rushing for 56-222-1 last season while also adding 24-258-2 through the air. Tyree’s dual-threat ability should be convenient when it comes to replacing Williams.
Arguably their most important player on the defensive side of the ball last season, safety Kyle Hamilton bolted for the NFL and joined the Ravens after they selected him with the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft.
Despite the loss of Hamilton, Notre Dame returns corners Cam Hart and Cameron Lewis, along with EDGE Isaiah Foskey, who led the team with 11 sacks while forcing 32 pressures. Head coach Marcus Freeman, is a long-time defensive coordinator and linebackers coach who is well-known for his defensive acumen. Notre Dame’s defense is expected to do big things in 2022 and could set the bar high with a strong performance against arguably the best offense in the nation.
Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor Picks
Each week, head to the NBC Sports Predictor app and submit picks for Irish Pick ‘Em, a free-to-play contest with weekly cash prizes including a $10,000 jackpot. Participants can download the NBC Sports Predictor app, then search the “Special Contests” section for each week’s contest featuring Notre Dame. The weekly contest will include seven different prop questions, each with multiple answer options.
Notre Dame Rushing Yards: 84-105
The Irish averaged 136.2 rushing yards per game last season but rushed for 42 and 84 yards in their two losses. The rushing upside of Tyler Buchner keeps me intrigued enough to pick this wide range of yards, but it’s difficult to envision Notre Dame racking up 100+ rushing yards in what I believe will be a losing effort. The fact that the Irish averaged just 63 rushing yards per game in their two losses is anything but a coincidence. I expect Ohio State to hold enough of a lead to neutralize the ground game for much of this one.
Notre Dame Passing Yards: 200-220
Rushing yards tend to correlate with winning teams while passing yards tend to correlate with losing ones. Notre Dame might win nine or 10 games this year, but I don’t envision Saturday night’s tilt being one of them. The Irish throwing often to keep pace with a high-powered Ohio State offense would be one of the less surprising developments in this one, and as a result, but this threshold is well within the range of outcomes. Facing a stout Buckeyes defense, Notre Dame has enough questions of its own when it comes to the receiving game. Last season, Jack Coan surpassed 200 passing yards in just eight of his 13 games last season. He surpassed 220 yards just four times.
The Game
Ohio State laying 17 points in this one feels like a lot. The current line has been juiced up from 14.5, with the public buying in on a dominant opening game by the Buckeyes.
Since taking over as Ohio State’s head coach in 2018, Ryan Day has gone 34-4 in his career but is just 25-22-2 ATS. In home games under Day, the Buckeyes are 14-0-0 ATS -- slightly better, but not by much.
The open line value looks like the ideal play, but that appears all but gone. Despite Ohio State’s elite offense, I’m unwilling to overlook Notre Dame’s defense and Marcus Freeman‘s ability to control the tempo and keep this one close. Quarterback Tyler Buchner could derail this whole thing if he’s unable to extend drives and put points on the board, but 17 points feel like a lot to lay in an early game against the No. 5 team in the nation.
In the good name of #content, I’ll cautiously take the points, but I’d prefer to stay away from this spread unless it moves closer to its opening line before kickoff.
Pick: Notre Dame (+17)
2022 ATS Record: 0-1
