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The last time we saw our heroes, they were laying a 44-21 beat down on UNLV. While failing to cover as 26-point favorites, the Irish had a three-possession advantage on the Rebels but entered the fourth quarter with a 16-point lead.
Defensively, the Irish played one of their best games to date, going a perfect 12-of-12 on third downs, while allowing 2-of-3 fourth downs to be converted on a day where they surrendered just 299 offensive yards.
Getting excited about what the Irish did at home against a Rebels team that was one of the worst in the nation just a year ago is difficult. Despite the 23-point victory, Notre Dame lost the turnover battle 2-1, while quarterback Drew Pyne left a bit to be desired -- more on that later.
We can’t take away last weekend’s win, but the 4-3 Irish now have the same number of wins as UNLV, with the biggest difference being UNLV didn’t enter 2022 as the No. 5 team in the nation.
With a bigger challenge on tap this weekend against Syracuse, Notre Dame could log one of its biggest wins on the season with a road win against the Orange. Ideally, they’d prefer to not catch Syracuse off a heartbreaking loss to Clemson, but that’s beyond their control.
A big win is a big win. The question is whether or not Notre Dame can secure the big one this weekend. Let’s dive into the matchup and see how this one could play out!
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Notre Dame
The Irish walked all over UNLV last weekend, defeating the Rebels 44-21 in a game they entered as 26-point favorites. Of course, the Irish (3-4 ATS) didn’t cover despite the home-field advantage and the fact that the Rebels were a two-win Mountain West team just a year ago, and were without their starting quarterback, Doug Brumfield.
Running back Logan Diggs emerged to rush for 28-130-0 after Audric Estime (3-17-1) was sidelined for a lost fumble early in the game. Quarterback Drew Pyne was fine on the afternoon, throwing for 205-2-1, but completed just 50% of his passes, with Michael Mayer leading the team in receiving (6-115-1) on 11 targets.
Diggs has had an up-and-down season so far with the Irish, who feature no elite running backs of note, with each of their three lead backs having 300+ rushing yards on the season. Estime, whose three fumbles lead the team, is also tops in YCO/ATT (3.38) and leads the team with 20 missed tackles forced, but there’s not telling how long of a leash he will have -- if any -- heading into this one.
Pyne and the Irish will face a bit more of an uphill battle this weekend against an Orange defense that ranks eighth in the nation in defensive success rate (33.3%) and boasts a pass defense that is ranked fourth with a PFF coverage grade of (92.6).
Through seven games, Notre Dame is far from road-tested. After opening the season at Ohio State, the Irish have played five of their last six games in friendly territory, with their last road game coming against a soft UNC defense. Saturday’s contest against Syracuse, who is allowing just 13 points per game at home, will be their most difficult matchup since Week 1. Overcoming The Dome’s home crowd will also prove to be a challenge in itself.
Syracuse
Coming off a 27-21 loss to Clemson, the Orange will be looking to rebound from a heartbreaker.
Syracuse is the 16th-ranked team in the nation and is an impressive 6-1 ATS, with their only loss to the books coming in a 22-20 win over Virginia after entering the day as 9.5-point favorites.
Quarterback Garrett Shrader has thrown for 1,608-13-4, is 16th in the nation in completion percentage (69.4%), and is ninth in the nation with a rushing line of 59-455-6. In last week’s loss against Clemson, Shrader rushed a season-high 16 times for 89 yards and one score and has rushed for 60+ yards in five-of-seven games this season.
While Shrader’s running is exciting, it doesn’t compare to that of Sean Tucker, who is just months away from playing on Sundays. Tucker, who has rushed for 127-700-6 this season, is a versatile player capable of making plays on the ground and through the air. One of the best backs in the nation, Tucker is coming off a frustrating game against Clemson in which he saw a season-low five carries despite rushing for 54 yards (10.8 YPC) on those carries.
Tucker also hauled in all five of his targets for 19 yards and a touchdown but was frustratingly underutilized in arguably the Orange’s biggest game of the season. Tucker took to Twitter after the team’s loss -- which is always a good idea -- expressing his frustration with the outcome of the game while adding, “there’s more I can do and I’m healthy.”
Saturday we lost our first game Syracuse 21 Clemson 27. I'm not pleased with the outcome of the game but now it's time to focus on winning out the rest of the season. I'm pleased with my performance but there's more I can do and I'm healthy. 5car 54yds 5rec 18yds and TD #PL34SED pic.twitter.com/6iO3pjg3of
— Sean Tucker (@seantucker2020) October 24, 2022
There’s no reason to doubt Tucker’s health, as the third-year running back has played in every game this season. In another big game this weekend, I’d expect Tucker to see a bit more work after voicing his recent displeasure. The star back has averaged 31.3 opportunities per game on the season.
Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor
Notre Dame 1st Half Points
As previously mentioned, the Orange are allowing just 13 points per game at home. One of the best home defensive teams in the nation, Syracuse is allowing just 4.8 points per game in the first half of games and is sixth in the nation in overall points per game allowed in the first half at 6.0. On the other side, Notre Dame is averaging just 13.7 points per game in the first half, seeing a near 50/50 split of their 26.6 points per game on the season. Notre Dame’s offense isn’t particularly good, but they are getting a projected team total of 22.75. While I think they surpass the 4.8 points Syracuse is allowing thus far, I don’t see any more than two first-half scores for the Irish.
Notre Dame 1st Half Points: 8-14
Notre Dame 1st Downs
The Irish are averaging 21.3 first downs per game, which ranks 64th in the nation through seven weeks. The Orange are allowing just 16.3 first downs per game on defense, but have allowed 15+ first downs in every home game to FBS teams -- bumping that 16.3 number up to 18.3. I expect The Dome’s home crowd to give the Irish fits, which could make life particularly tough for Drew Pyne. Notre Dame has surprised me with some of its offensive performances this season, however, I don’t expect this weekend to be one of those surprise games.
Notre Dame 1st Downs: 0-16
The Game
As our own Vaughn Dalzell pointed out earlier this week, some books were actually crazy enough to give the Irish a two-point road advantage when lines first dropped. That quickly corrected, as the line has now shifted to Syracuse -2.5, but I think this one could go up a little more over the course of the week. While I expect this to be a close one, Syracuse needing just a three-point win to cover feels very much in play. As previously mentioned, the Orange are 6-1 ATS, and have been covering by an average of 8.4 points per game. Notre Dame, who is just 3-4 ATS has been a tough team to handicap against the spread, as they’ve failed to dominate against teams viewed as inferior. Syracuse is back home and coming off a frustrating loss. I’ll happily lay the 2.5 points in a game I expect the Orange to win by at least a touchdown.
NOTE: This article has been updated to reflect the current Syracuse -1.5 line, which has moved from -2.5 since Thursday’s publishing. I was previously on Syracuse -2.5 and would still be willing to bet them up to -2.5 if the line adjusts up again.
Pick: Syracuse -1.5
2022 Record: 20-29-1