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After an excellent 2020 campaign, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going into 2021 in a sort of flux. Going into last season, the Fighting Irish were a team armed with returning depth and a multi-year starting quarterback as well. This year, they are looking to replace a lot of talent that was lost to the NFL, especially on the offensive line. The outlook for the season rests on the success of incoming Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan, who was named the starter by head coach Brian Kelly back on August 14th. Having Coan under center will give Kelly what he has sought from his quarterbacks during his tenure in South Bend: stability.
Coan does not possess elite tools for the position. Quite frankly, his tools are average across the board. What he brings to this Notre Dame offense are experience and poise. Having a completion percentage of 69%, 2,727 yards, and 18 touchdowns his last season for Wisconsin in 2019, he left some to be desired. He was a little too conservative, didn’t have the requisite arm strength to drive the ball consistently down the field, and made some questionable throws. What he will bring to this offense is leadership and stability, which will be needed early on.
This offense is likely to rely on sophomore Kyren Williams, who had a phenomenal 2020 for the Irish. The star running back ran for 1,125 yards, caught passes for 313 more, and scored 14 total touchdowns. This season, don’t be surprised to see him expand those numbers and become a Heisman Trophy front runner. His ability at 5-foot-9 and 195 pounds to run through tacklers and keep his balance through contact will help this offense keep moving forward. His presence in the backfield will allow Coan to lean on him early on as the offense gets their feet wet.
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One of the main reasons why the experience of Coan will be so valuable early on is the reworked offensive line. Liam Eichenberg, Aaron Banks, and Robert Hainsey were all drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, while Tommy Kraemer was an undrafted free agent signing with the Detroit Lions. While it will be a worry early on for the Fighting Irish, their play will stabilize as the season progresses. They are returning only center Jarrett Patterson, but incoming transfer from Marshall in All-American Cain Madden will help that process.
On the defensive side of the ball, it’s all about start safety Kyle Hamilton. One of the best players in college football, Hamilton projects currently to be a top ten pick in April’s NFL Draft. Combining elite size (6'4/219), athleticism, and physicality, Hamilton will be the catalyst for the Irish. The front seven is lead by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa who will be a stabilizing force on the defensive line.
The full outlook on the Irish is really going to depend how quickly this team gels on offense. They have a tough schedule with Wisconsin, USC, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Cincinnati all on the schedule. What makes things even more tough for the Irish in those games is that all 5 of the above teams will be coming off of a bye and the Irish play them all in succession. Having only 9 returning starters and a quarterback that is more of a stabilizer than a dynamic player makes it hard to buy into them as a title contender. Expectations, however, are high for the No. 9 team in the country going into Week 1. While an ACC championship game appearance isn’t out of the question, the Irish will be lucky to get out of that gauntlet with a 3-2 record. 9-3 feels like the ceiling for this team, with a likely record of 8-4 in what looks to be a transition year.
As the Fighting Irish prepare to face the Florida State Seminoles tonight, there are two lines at PointsBet Sportsbook that I find really appealing.
Notre Dame (-7) at Florida State
Going on the road is not an easy task, especially going to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Considering the state of the Seminoles program, it is an easier task than it has been in a long time. Head coach Mike Norvell is looking to stabilize a program that has been in rough shape since the departure of Jimbo Fisher. Recently the Irish have had really good success going against the spread, and the ACC as a whole:
Notre Dame is 15-9 against the spread in its last 24 games
Notre Dame is 12-7 against the spread in its last 19 games as a favorite
Notre Dame is 19-0 in its last 19 as the moneyline favorite
Notre Dame has won 14 of its last 15 games against the ACC, with the only loss against Clemson in the ACC title game in December
These numbers are overwhelmingly in favor of betting Notre Dame against the spread, and I would take that bet. Florida State is still trying to rebuild the program and it should be an easy cover for the Irish.
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Total points: O/U 55.5
With two teams that have question marks defensively, pair it with a week one game where there are still a lot of kinks to iron out and the over feels like a good play. When the over is between 53.5 and 57.5 in Florida State’s last 7 games, the over hit each time. On an overall scale, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 games. As I mentioned before, Week 1 games are usually the ones with a lot to iron out schematically, and that usually leads to the over. The team totals are set at O/U 30.5 and O/U 23.5 for Notre Dame and Florida State, respectively.
Here’s a look at some of the notable player props also available for this game, which will be the 11th all-time meeting between the two clubs:
Jack Coan (ND) O/U 238.5 passing yards
Jack Coan (ND) O/U 1.5 touchdown passes
Kyren Williams (ND) O/U 98.5 rushing yards
Jashaun Corbin (FSU) O/U 58.5 rushing yards
Avery Davis (ND) O/U 49.5 receiving yards
Ontaria Wilson (FSU) O/U 45.5 receiving yards
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