It’s safe to say that we’ve never seen anything quite like this bowl season. The NBC Sports EDGE Opt Out Tracker has been firing since the end of the regular season, with hundreds of players sitting out bowl games due to either player transfers for players declaring for the NFL Draft.
If you don’t believe me, have a look at the opt outs in this game alone.
Notre Dame
- (OUT) TE Michael Mayer – Declared for NFL Draft
- (OUT) QB Drew Pyne – Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) DL Jacob Lacey – Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) CB Jayden Bellamy – Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) DL Ositadinma Ekwonu -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) TE Cane Berrong -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) WR Joe Wilkins -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) DE Isaiah Foskey – Declared for NFL Draft
South Carolina
- (OUT) TE Jaheim Bell – Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) RB MarShawn Lloyd -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) DL Zacch Pickens -- Declared for NFL Draft
- (OUT) WR Corey Rucker -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) DB Tyrese Ross -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) OL Dylan Wonnum -- Declared for NFL Draft
- (OUT) DB Joey Hunter -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) DB Darius Rush -- Declared for NFL Draft
- (OUT) DL Gilber Edmond -- Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) CB RJ Roderick – Entered transfer portal
- (OUT) CB Cam Smith – Declared for NFL Draft
- (OUT) TE Austin Stogner – Entered transfer portal
Football traditionalists would look at this list of players and drone on for hours about how nobody loves the game today. Others will talk about the bigger picture. Either way, we’ve got more than a dozen players opting out of the Gator Bowl -- and these are just the ones we know of right now. One or two more opt outs sneaking up closer to game day wouldn’t surprise anybody.
These player opt outs throw a complete wrench in how we go about betting these games. Of course, books can be just as bad at picking these matchups as anybody.
Taking what we know on each side of the ball, here’s how I’m looking to play this weekend’s matchup.
Note: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, CollegeFootballData.com and Sports-Reference.com.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame lost quarterback Tyler Buchner for the season after the team’s Week 2 loss to Marshall. Now, with Drew Pyne transferring to Arizona State, Notre Dame will get Buchner back for the Gator Bowl. How that will fare is anybody’s guess.
In two games this season, Buchner completed 28-of-50 passes for 378 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing for 88 yards and two touchdowns per Pro Football Focus. For his career, Buchner has made more plays with his legs (57-439-5) than he has his arm (676-3-5), but this is a quarterback with less than 100 career drop backs through his first two years of college.
Perhaps the biggest loss for Notre Dame in this week’s matchup is tight end Michael Mayer, who has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Arguably the best tight end in the nation, Mayer caught 67 passes for 809 yards and nine touchdowns in his final year with the Irish and could be the first tight end off the board next spring.
The absence of Mayer and Pyne will, in all likelihood, force the Irish into a run-heavy game plan for as long as they can manage it.
Things could be worse for the Irish in that regard. While a run-heavy approach would be ideal for them, that won’t require them to change much. This season, Notre Dame ranked near the top in the nation in rush rate, running on 58.7% of their plays the season -- good for the 17th-highest rush rate in the nation.
For a look at their rushing prowess, here’s how their three-leading rushers have performed thus far.
The Irish should have their starting offensive line largely intact, which will only bode well for their rushing attack as they take on a South Carolina defense that’s allowing the 20th-most rushing yards per game (192.4) this season.
The loss of defensive end Isaiah Foskey, who accounted for 44 tackles, 13.5 TFLs and 10.5 sacks will be monumental for the Irish, but the other losses on defense are minimally-used role players.
South Carolina
The Gamecocks will be without two of their best offensive weapons in running back MarShawn Lloyd (111-573-9) and tight end Jaheim Bell (25-231-2). We also can’t ignore Bell’s 73 carries for 261 yards and three touchdowns, as he’s currently the second-leading rusher for the Gamecocks.
South Carolina should have their lead receivers for this game (Antwane Wells Jr -- 63-898-5, Jalen Brooks -- 33-504-1), but will also be without right tackle Dylan Wonnum, who announced his entry into the 2023 NFL Draft. In addition to those offensive losses, South Carolina has also seen three players on the defensive side of the ball declare for the draft.
So what’s that leave them with?
For better or worse, quarterback Spencer Rattler (2766-16-11) should be active for this one. While his 2022 numbers aren’t all that impressive, Rattler threw for 793 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games of the regular season, leading the Gamecocks to wins over Tennessee and rival Clemson, with the Clemson win coming in Death Valley. If Rattler plays like he did in his last two games, Notre Dame doesn’t stand a chance.
However, we also can’t ignore that through his first eight games, Rattler had just five touchdown passes to nine interceptions. His 1,649 yards over that span ranked 10th-most among SEC quarterbacks. His 269 drop backs were the fourth most.
Either version of Rattler could show up against a Notre Dame defense that’s allowed 21.8 points per game and the 21st-fewest passing yards per game (190.6).
The Game
Currently sitting as two-point favorites, the Irish have seen a slight drop from the -4.5 line they opened at. The opt outs on both sides have made this one a tricky one to bet, but I think there’s an edge to be had on the total.
With both teams losing key players on the offensive side of the ball, I like the total to go below the 52-point total it’s currently getting. The total for this one opened at 53.5 back on December 5th and has only dropped by 1.5 points, despite several players opting out well after the game was announced.
The over is a combined 7-4 between these two teams when the total is between 50 and 60 points, but that’s with their rosters at full strength.
Pick: UNDER 52
