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We’ve waited out the dog days of the offseason to get to where we are today! As I write this, we are days away from the start of the college football season -- sort of. No disrespect to Week 0, but this tends to feel more like a warmup for the regular season which won’t come until September 3rd.
Regardless, we can’t deny that the college football season will officially be underway this time next week, which means CFB DFS action is back in full swing!
Last season I had the chance to run out a weekly DFS value column. The fine folks at NBC Sports EDGE were kind enough to let me do the same for this season!
Week 0 features some interesting plays, and one big matchup between Nebraska and Northwestern, set to go down in Dublin, Ireland!
The other contests on this week’s slate are as follows:
Austin Peay, Idaho State and Duquesne throw an interesting wrench into things, as neither of these teams should be all that competitive against the FBS opponents. On one hand, a running back against Duquesne could explode for a 10-100-2 performance. On the other hand, Florida State could gain a big lead by way of the passing game, pull its starters, and sink the value of the starters you invested valuable cap space in.
With the season quickly approaching, let’s dive into some players I like on the first slate of the 2022 season!
Casey Thompson, QB (Nebraska)
Game: Nebraska (-13) vs. Northwestern - O/U 50.5
DraftKings Salary: $7,200
As is the case with NFL fantasy, quarterbacks tend to be the highest scorers in the college football game as well. With so many mismatches this first weekend (or underwhelming quarterback matchups like Illinois vs. Wyoming), I’m tempted to lean toward Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson.
Thompson is the eighth highest-priced quarterback on the slate but has a chance to be in the most competitive game of the weekend.
Playing on neutral turf, Nebraska enters its opener against Northwestern as 13-point favorites. While the books aren’t expecting this one to be close (Nebraska won 56-7 last season), I think there’s a chance Nebraska plays its starters a decent amount in this one.
If that’s the case, I love the value of Thompson.
If not for Quinn Ewers transferring to Texas this offseason, there’s a good chance Thompson would be starting for the Longhorns this season. Last year at Texas, Thompson strung together an impressive line of 2113-24-9 while rushing for 55-157-4. Thompson was a willing deep-ball thrower last season but struggled at times with his accuracy. He completed just 32.6% of his 43 passes, throwing for 497 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions on deep attempts.
It’s not great, but I like the aggressiveness and am hopeful that Thompson can find success against a Northwestern team that allowed 29.0 points per game last season. The Wildcats allowed just two passers of 300+ yards last season but faced an underwhelming group of quarterbacks.
Omar Manning, WR (Nebraska)
Game: Nebraska (-13) vs. Northwestern - O/U 50.5
DraftKings Salary: $6,900
Gunning for a mini-stack in this Nebraska vs. Northwestern game, senior wide receiver Omar Manning has a chance to step into a key role for the Huskers this season. Last year, Manning went for 26-380-2, and has the most yards of any receiver returning from the 2021 campaign.
Another note I’ve yet to touch on is Mark Whipple helming the offense for Nebraska this season -- you may remember his high-volume passing attack from 2021 turning Kenny Pickett into a Heisman contender while the Panthers went 7-3 on their way to an ACC championship. Last season, Pitt ranked 26th in offensive drive efficiency per Football Outsiders, throwing on 50.9% of their passes, ranking significantly higher than Nebraska’s 2021 output. Nebraska’s 342 pass attempts last season were the second-fewest in the nation behind Coastal Carolina’s 322 attempts.
Whipple’s offense should give plenty of receivers opportunities to make plays this season. I like Manning, the No. 1 rated JUCO receiver of the 2020 class per 247Sports at his $6,900 price point here.
Evan Hull, RB (Northwestern)
Game: Nebraska (-13) vs. Northwestern - O/U 50.5
DraftKings Salary: $6,300
Only 20 FBS running backs totaled 30+ receptions last season, and Northwestern’s Evan Hull was one of them.
Hull ran a route on 67% of his passing down snaps in 2021 per PFF, and went for three or more receptions in seven of his 12 games. In addition to his receiving upside, which could bode well for fantasy purposes in a game the Wildcats are expected to be trailing in, Hull also led his team with a rushing line of 196-1059-7. Hull ranked in the top-25 in both yards after contact per attempt (3.60) and missed tackles forced (50) with 43.8% of his rushing yards coming on breakaway runs.
Nebraska’s defense could prove problematic for Hull and the Wildcats -- he managed just 7.2 fantasy points against them last season -- but on a neutral field and with nine returning starters on the offensive side of the ball, I like Hull’s chances at a rebound.
Hull averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring last season and is the sixth-highest priced back on the slate. If Northwestern keeps this one competitive, there’s a good chance Hull is a big reason why.
Pailate Makakona, RB (Utah State)
Game: Utah State (-27) vs. UConn - O/U 60.5
DraftKings Salary: $4,500
I was ready to go all in on Calvin Tyler ($8,100) this weekend, but with Utah State being such a heavy favorite I like taking a shot on a discounted backup here.
Aggies running back John Gentry ($5,500) is priced as the presumed backup to Tyler, but it was Makakona who was listed as the RB2 in Utah State’s official depth chart earlier this week.
It's FINALLY Game Week‼️
— USU Football (@USUFootball) August 22, 2022
Here is a look at the 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣2️⃣ Depth Chart.
👀➡️ https://t.co/A7ebL1A7Pr pic.twitter.com/KP0bnqELmj
Makakona has offered little offensive production in his time at Utah State, posting a career rushing line of 52-148-0. His 2.8 career yards per carry is brutal.
So why start him?
As Utah State’s RB2, any kind of substantial run in a blowout win over UConn could be enough for Makakona to return value -- especially if he manages to find the end zone. His $4,500 price tag also allows us to fit other meaningful contributors into our lineups.
Drae McCray, WR (Austin Peay)
Game: Western Kentucky vs. Austin Peay
DraftKings Salary: $4,700
As a true freshman in 2021, Austin Peay Drae McCray -- a running back recruit who converted to wide receiver -- emerged to lead the Governors in receiving. McCray totaled 53 receptions for 867 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 16.4 yards per reception.
McCray converted 9-of-29 deep passes into 358 yards and four scores on the season, averaging 2.6 deep targets per game.
He saw seven or more targets in seven of his 11 games played and eclipsed double-digit targets on three occasions.
Playing against a high-octane Western Kentucky offense, McCray and Austin Peay are expected to be playing from behind in this one. Arguably the best FCS receiver on the slate, McCray dicing up Western Kentucky on a few plays in this one wouldn’t be surprising. Costing a mere $5,000 to roster, in DraftKings’ full-PPR settings, 15 points from the Governors’ target hog would be enough for him to 3x his price.
Correlating McCray with Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed ($9,000) could be a fun way to get action on both sides.
