Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
College football season is nearly upon us and times they are a-changin’. Conference realignment is in the zeitgeist, and the Sun Belt has not been immune, as they added four new teams into the mix. These new programs have a chance to upset the balance in the conference, and the Sun Belt might be the craziest it’s been in years.
Louisiana has been dominating recently, winning the West four straight years, and while they’ll be favorites again they might have some cracks to exploit. The East also has a dominant force in Appalachian State (they’ve won three of the past four) but this year looks to be a knock-down, drag-out brawl. Plenty of teams could take the East, as Coastal Carolina is always strong, Georgia State had one of the best finishes of any team in the NCAA, and newcomer Marshall is absolutely a threat.
Here’s a look at how I see the new-look conference breaking down in 2022: (All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
Traditional Champions Soar Again
The Mountaineers of Appalachian State are the favorite to win the conference, coming in at +250. The Ragin Cajuns, last year’s big winners, are slightly behind them at +300. They are the two big favorites for a reason, as the two have been dominating the past four years, with Coastal Carolina the only team to break up their annual date in the Championship Game.
App State returns QB Chase Brice, the Sun Belt’s third-team QB and Newcomer of the Year, and their dynamic rushing duo of Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel that combined for 2,052 yards and 18 touchdowns. The solid offensive line suffers just one loss, so ground and pound will be the calling card for App State, especially with the massive losses they took in the receiving game. They graduated their top three WRs, all of whom made first or second team All-Sun Belt.
Odds to win Sun Belt Conference
+250 Appalachian State
+300 Louisiana
+425 Marshall
+500 Coastal Carolina
+1000 Troy
+1200 Georgia State
+1600 South Alabama
Defensively they’ll lose five starters, but two of them are linebackers which is where App State is quite deep. App State has traditionally been strong defensively, and they seem to have capable replacements for their losses.
If playmakers emerge on the receiving end of things, App State will have one of the best offenses in college football, and the dual continuity of head coach and QB is always nice. On the other hand, there is a new offensive coordinator, and a whole new receiving corps. A tough start against North Carolina and Texas A&M won’t give them much time to breathe, and if rough beginnings spill into the rest of the season there could be trouble on the horizon. Luckily for them, the critical games of their in-conference schedule are at the end, which should give them time to readjust if needed. Overall, App State are in a fine place to battle it out in a tough division, and if they emerge from that scrap battle-tested and relatively unharmed, they’ll be as good a shout as any for the overall title.
Billy Napier turned Louisiana into one of the teams to beat in the Sun Belt, but now he’s gone, as is All-Sun Belt second team QB Levi Lewis. Losing your signal-caller and your head coach in the same season is very difficult to work around, and they also lose four out of their five starting offensive linemen. Continuing a sort of opposite situation to Appalachian State, they do retain much of their skill talent, with their top two receivers returning (Michael Jefferson and Peter LeBlanc) and one of their top two backs in Chris Smith, who ran for a team leading 851 yards.
The defense is similarly impacted, with six of their leading 11 snap getters no longer on the team, although it’s also just one of the top six, and they are at positions with quite a few experienced backups. The defense should be able to find its footing faster than the offense for that reason, and may need to carry the load early on as new projected QB Chandler Fields adjusts.
Luckily their schedule isn’t the toughest out there, with their only real competition coming at home or later on in the schedule. They also dodged most of the best of the East, with Marshall away on October 12th likely being their only real struggle in their conference slate. Getting to walk into the conference championship game always helps in terms of winning the whole thing, but this Louisiana team is probably the weakest it’s been in the last five years, and a disappointing season could be on the cards for them. Losing possibly the best QB and coach in the conference is tough for any team to overcome, and Michael Desormeaux‘s maiden voyage may be a rocky one.
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click here to learn more!
A New Challenger Approaches
Speaking of maiden voyages, Marshall dips their feet into the Sun Belt pool for the first time in 2022, moving over from Conference USA, and could immediately compete for the championship. Marshall is +425 to win the conference which ranks as third best. The biggest difference for them will be Texas Tech transfer QB Henry Colombi, who was far from a star in the Big 12 but had some nice games including a win over West Virginia and a 326-yard, three touchdown effort against Texas. Crucially, Colombi will be assisted by star running back Rasheen Ali, who gained 1,735 yards from scrimmage last year, along with a whopping 24 touchdowns. The Herd’s top receiver Corey Gammage also returns, while fellow wideouts Jayden Harrison and Shadeed Ahmed have been mentioned as names to watch out for. If Colombi can get adjusted quickly, their offense might hit a new level, although the lack of offensive line experience (four new starters this year) could hinder that.
On defense, Marshall may not return many of their starters, but they return many of the best, including linebackers Eli Neal and Abraham Beauplan, two of their top three starters in PFF rating, as well as CB Micah Abraham (#9). Not only that, but a lot of what they did lose should be mitigated by some significant transfers, including three former P5 guys on the defensive line.
Marshall has all the elements to be a real threat in their first year in the Sun Belt, and if the big transfers pan out right, the Thundering Herd will be right in the thick of things. Their schedule also greatly assists matters. Their main competition for the title in Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State and Georgia State will all face them at home. Protect the house and Marshall might just win the whole thing, avenging a bowl game loss to Louisiana in the process.
Dark Horses Ride
Georgia State was one of the hottest teams in the nation by the end of the year. After losing four of their first five games, they finished out by winning seven of their last eight, including a blowout victory in the Camellia Bowl against Ball State. Their only loss was to the eventual champion Louisiana, who they were beating with three minutes left in the game.
A full 15 players return from last year’s squad, including QB Darren Grainger, who didn’t fully take over the starting job until Week 6 - or in other words, when Georgia State’s hot streak began. He’ll be assisted by the dynamic rushing duo of Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, who combined for 1,812 yards and 18 touchdowns, and four returning starters of the offensive line that facilitated that top rushing attack, two of whom were All-Sun Belt honorees.
The defense also gets back seven starting members, including DT Thomas Gore, who was the second highest PFF rated tackle in the NCAA (minimum 350 snaps) only losing to 2022 first round pick Devonte Wyatt. Linebackers Blake Carroll, Jordan Veneziale and safety Antavious Lane (all of them All-Sun Belt honorees) add to what is a very tough middle of the defense.
All of that sounds great, but their schedule might be the thing that holds them back. Four of their first five games come against South Carolina, UNC, Coastal Carolina and Army. They also play Appalachian State and Marshall, two of their biggest rivals for the East title, away from home. The continuity of the team is great, and they have some real talent at multiple positions, but unfortunate scheduling is why they are currently +1200 to win the conference, which ranks sixth. Still, Georgia State has the ability to compete with anyone in the Sun Belt and this could easily be their year.
One to Watch
Jalen Wayne is the heir to South Alabama WR Jalen Tolbert‘s throne. Even with Tolbert popping off for 82 catches and 1,474 yards, Wayne still managed a solid 53 grabs for 630. With 82 receptions now available, Wayne could easily garner Tolbert-esque numbers in 2022. The offense under second-year coach Kane Wommack clearly likes to throw and has no problem with an alpha dog top receiver. What it will largely depend on is the QB. Carter Bradley and Desmond Trotter are duking it out, but it’s not terribly likely for either to be better than Jake Bentley considering Trotter literally lost out to him in 2021 and Bradley is coming in from losing his own QB battle in Toledo. Still, as long as it’s not a disaster at the QB spot, and it shouldn’t be, Wayne has a good chance to step right into Tolbert’s shoes. He’s a bit bigger than Tolbert, and coach Wommack says he’s just as athletic. We’ll see if that holds true or not, but a South Alabama WR named Jalen just might repeat as Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year.
My Money’s On…
For a bit of a cop-out answer, I think whoever wins the East will take the whole thing. Louisiana is at their weakest, and with Billy Napier gone, they might sink back into mediocrity, which is basically where they were before he got there. Not only that, but losing so much of the offense at the same time means a downswing is almost inevitable. The much weaker Sun Belt West means they’ll still likely win the division and have a shot in the title game, but whoever claws their way out of the tough East will likely be ready to take on anyone.
Who wins the East is the much tougher question. It feels like Coastal Carolina lost too much, even with Grayson McCall returning, and while Marshall has a ton of talent across the field, they are probably the weakest at QB of the East title hopefuls. That leaves us with Georgia State and Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have the history, the pedigree and a proven commodity in Chase Brice. He’ll help massively in mitigating the hit to the receiving room, and they are odds-on favorite for a reason. They are the boring pick, and the sexier option is Georgia State. If Darren Grainger is legit (and he looked the part in the latter half of the year) they have so much returning talent from a team that was already very good. The Panthers only lost to Appalachian State and Louisiana last year, and the App State loss was when they were still starting Cornelius Brown. For that reason, I’m riding with Georgia State (+1200) to win the Sun Belt.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
