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With the NFL Draft now gone, the 2022 college football season is officially on the horizon.
Circa Sports Book in Las Vegas saw that horizon and was kind enough to release some early lines on matchups set to take place in Week 0 and Week 1.
For those wearing the “college football betting degenerate” badge with honor, this article may be coming at just the right time. While these lines are likely to shift in the coming months, knowing how they opened at Circa could make for a valuable comparison with lines at other books.
Without further ado, here are a few games that stand out as ones worth considering as a new season fast approaches.
Purdue (+4) vs. Penn State
Purdue opened 2021 as two-point home underdogs against Oregon State, only to walk away 30-21 winners. The Boilermakers were a solid 8-5 ATS overall last season, which included a 5-4 ATS record in conference play. With notable wins over Iowa, Michigan State and Tennessee last season, the Boilermakers are flying high heading into 2022 despite key losses in WR David Bell and EDGE George Karlaftis to the NFL Draft.
Quarterback Aidan O’Connell is returning for his sixth season with the team and coming off an explosive 2021 campaign (3712-28-11). O’Connell was particularly strong late in the season, throwing for 2,161 yards, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions in his final five games while going 4-1 over that span.
Purdue will not only need to overcome the loss of top receiver David Bell (93-1286-6) but Milton Wright (57-732-7), who is no longer on the team after being ruled academically ineligible. Tight end Payne Durham (45-467-6) is set to return for another season and will look to improve on a breakout 2021 campaign.
Penn State returns long-time starter Sean Clifford (3107-21-8), who may not even be the best quarterback on the roster with 2022’s No. 4 quarterback recruit Drew Allar now on campus. Nevertheless, it should be Clifford who gets the start in this one.
The Lions will also have to adjust to the loss of first-round NFL Draft pick Jahan Dotson (91-1182-12) but junior wide receiver Parker Washington (64-820-4) appears ready for the WR1 role in 2022. Washington has strung together a solid first two seasons at Penn State, and looks like a legitimate breakout candidate heading into his third season.
Penn State lost five defensive players to the 2022 NFL Draft, most notably EDGE Arnold Ebiketie and safety Jaquan Brisker.
Purdue’s aggressive style of play in 2021 may be dialed back in 2022 with the loss of its two top receivers. However, it’s difficult to completely overlook the efficiency Purdue enjoyed last season. The Boilermakers ranked 40th in overall offensive success rate (45.3%) and were 10th in passing success rate (47.7%). Penn State on the other hand was 96th in offensive success rate at 40.1% and ranked 81st in passing success rate at 40.6%.
O’Connell finding early chemistry with an inexperienced group of receivers could keep their aggressive passing style alive in 2022. Durham remaining with the team should help with the adjusting process.
Purdue doesn’t need to win this game outright to cover. If their status as four-point home underdogs holds come Week 1, I’d happily take the points against a Penn State offense that underwhelmed in 2021.
Florida (PK) vs. Utah
The Billy Napier era in Florida gets off to a challenging start when they host the Pac-12 champion Utes in the swamp.
Appearing to have their answer at quarterback, Anthony Richardson will enter 2022 not only as Florida’s starter but as a sleeper Heisman candidate. Last season with the Gators, Richardson threw for 529-6-5 while rushing for another 401 yards and three touchdowns on 51 carries.
Florida lost its leading receiver Jacob Copeland (41-642-4) to the transfer portal at the end of last season and running back Dameon Pierce (100-574-13) to the NFL Draft -- along with key defensive players in DB Kaiir Elam and EDGE Zachary Carter.
For Utah, they come fresh off a devastating loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, but return some key players -- most notably quarterback Cameron Rising. Last season, Rising emerged to throw for 2,493 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 74-499-6.
Lead running back Tavion Tomas (204-1108-21) and tight end Brant Kuithe (50-611-6) are also returning for the Utes, but they’ll have to weather the loss of LBs Devin Thomas and Nephi Sewell. Thomas was one of the best linebackers in the nation last season, totaling 111 tackles, 22 TFLs, seven sacks and four interceptions. He parlayed his success into a first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Florida gets the benefit of playing this game at home. But Napier and his Gators will need to be in full sync if they hope to open their season 1-0.
In a game that’s currently a Pick ‘Em, I feel inclined to lean toward Utah. Any points they may be given along the way could make them a strong Week 1 value.
Coastal Carolina (-6) vs. Army
In way too early 2023 NFL Mock Drafts, some experts have Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall as a first-round draft pick. His path to becoming a first rounder starts here against Army.
Playing in one of the more exciting offenses in the nation, McCall threw for 2873-27-3 while also rushing 93 times for 230 yards and four touchdowns. McCall has some serious losses to deal with on offense, with WR Jaivon Heiligh (66-1128-7) and TE Isaiah Likely (59-912-12) now in the NFL. Running back Shermari Jones (159-1040-13) has also departed, with RB Braydon Bennett (74-636-7) set to take over as the lead back.
The Chanticleers did land WR Sam Pinckney from the transfer portal, who should step into a meaningful role in 2022. In four seasons at Georgia State, the 6-foot-4 Pinckney caught 113 passes for 1,668 yards and 13 touchdowns, with is best season (47-815-7) coming in 2020. Coastal will also need to overcome several losses on defense, but have sophomore DT Josaiah Stewart returning after a strong freshman season. As a freshman, Stewart erupted for an impressive 43 tackles, 16 TFLs and 13 sacks on his way to First-Team All-Sun Belt honors
One of the more efficient teams in the nation last season, Coastal Carolina ranked first in passing success rate (57.8%) and second in overall success rate at 54.0%.
For Army, the Black Knights return a seasoned group of veterans led by EDGE Andre Carter. Carter is a rare Army product who some draft analysts have already pegged as a potential first-rounder in next year’s NFL Draft.
Last season, Carter received a PFF pass rush grade of 93.4, as he totaled 59 pressures, 15 sacks and 28 total tackles while forcing three fumbles.
Wide receiver Isaiah Alston also returns after a highly-efficient 2021 season in which he averaged 20.4 yards per reception while posting a line of 22-449-3.
Known for their run-heavy, triple option offense, Army ranked second in the nation on standard down run rate (90.5%) and first on passing down run rate (74.6%). Quarterback Tyhier Tyler rushed for 125-486-7 last season, but attempted just seven passes on the year as a backup to Christian Anderson. Fullback Jakobi Buchanan returns as the team’s leading back, after going for 136-504-12 last season and could create problems up front as a 260-pound battering ram.
As a team, Army went an impressive 9-4 while ranking 32nd in points per game (32.8) and 33rd in points allowed per game (22.3).
Even with Army’s strong 2021 outing, and several returning players, it’s easy to see a scenario in which this game goes in Coastal’s favor. Head coach Jamey Chadwell will need to find a way to replicate an offense that averaged 40.9 points per game last season on its way to an 11-2 record, but Chadwell has proven to be one of the more creative coaches in recent years. His 22-3 record over the last two seasons include a bowl game loss to Liberty and Malik Willis in 2020 with his two losses in 2021 coming to a 10-4 Appalachian State team and an 8-5 Georgia State team in a game which McCall did not play.
While there’s no attempt here to disrespect the troops, the Chanticleers high-flying offense has a chance to put Army on its heels and force them into throwing -- something they aren’t known for doing well.
Needing a seven point win to cover on the early line, I like the Chanticleers at -6, but hope some money comes in on Army to drive that number down a bit.
