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Oklahoma State (-3) at West Virginia: O/U 49.0
The Cowboys versus the Mountaineers. Who would win in a fight?
It would probably depend on the location and terrain, but honestly, the more important question is who will cover?
Oklahoma State has won six straight and went 5-0-1 ATS versus West Virginia over the last six meetings, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Cowboys are 7-2 on the ML and 6-2-1 ATS versus the Mountaineers since 2012.
In the last three trips to West Virginia, Oklahoma State has won all three meetings and went 2-0-1 ATS.
As the favorite in the series, Oklahoma State is 4-1 on the ML and 3-1-1 ATS over the past five.
The Cowboys enter this game a undervalued team with the defense leading the charge. The rushing defense ranks 9th in the country with 94.9 yards per game allowed, and the passing defense comes in at 33rd (200.1 yards per game).
West Virginia lost three straight before beating TCU and Iowa State. The 38-31 victory over Iowa State was the biggest win of the season, making this a prime spot to fade WVU.
In the last 10 games that West Virginia entered a contest on a two-game winning streak, they lost six out of 10 times, including four straight and five out of past last six. Even better.
West Virginia is -4 in the turnover margin (T-105th), and Oklahoma State is +2 (T-50th). The Cowboys have seven interceptions to the Mountaineers four.
I expect Oklahoma State to force Jarret Doege into a turnover or two, plus limit what Leddie Brown does on a regular basis. West Virginia is 1-4 on the ML this season when Brown does not go for 100 rushing yards.
The only WVU win that Brown did not go over 100 rushing yards this season was against Long Island University. Brown had 104 rushing yards last year versus Oklahoma State and WVU lost 27-13.
Only Texas’ Bijan Robinson had 100 or more rushing yards versus Oklahoma State and the Longhorns lost 32-24.
I grabbed -3 and would opt for the ML rather than a -3.5 in backing Oklahoma State.
Pick: Oklahoma State -3 (1u)
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