Casey Thompson, QB, Nebraska vs. Indiana - o244.5 Pass Yards
Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska vs. Indiana - o72.5 Rec Yards
Connor Bazelak, QB, Indiana at Nebraska - o256.5 (DK/FD)
Cameron Camper, WR, Indiana at Nebraska - o6.5 Recs- Play of the Week (PP)
I think this is going way Over the 61 points O/U and is the most mispriced game on the slate from a props perspective. Both teams play at a lightning fast pace, with Nebraska ranking 17th and Indiana surprisingly ripping off a play every 17.4 seconds, which is the fastest in the country. Indiana QB Connor Bazelak has unleashed 52, 55 and 66 passes in their 3 games against FBS opponents this season, with WR Cam Camper leading the nation in targets with 62. He received a whopping 19 targets last week against Cincinnati and has caught at least 8 passes in all 3 FBS games, making this Over 6.5 Recs play on Prize Picks a layup.
Nebraska is now under the control of pass-happy OC Mark Whipple who led the Pitt and UMass offenses to 35+ point seasons and is likely to charge up the passing game as he has at his previous two stops, making Kenny Pickett into a first-round QB while helping Adam Brenneman and Andy Isabella get drafted. Thompson got shut down by Oklahoma, but threw for 316 against Georgia Southern and 355 against Northwestern, so 244.5 is a very reasonable number in what looks to be a back-and-forth scoring contest with major yardage potential. Palmer is averaging 11 targets and eight receptions per game in his three games against FCS opponents and has gone over the 72.5 yard mark 3-of-4 times, with the lone Under being 68 yards against Northwestern in Week 0. I had bet this at 66.5, which was an incredible line, but still like it up to 76.5 in what should be a clear Over spot.
Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan at Iowa - o20.5 Rec Yards (DK)
Wilson doesn’t get a lot reps, with his 20 snaps last game against Maryland representing a season high, however he is heavily targeted whenever he is on the field receiving nine targets on 27 pass routes over the last two games that he turned into 89 yards and a touchdown. His yards per route average is a superb 4.45 while he has cleared the 20.5 yards mark in all four games this season. Michigan now has more upside in their passing game with J.J. McCarthy at the helm who clearly has a rapport with WIlson as his target share has increased noticeably with McCarthy under center. I like Wilson’s Over 20.5 Rec Yards despite a strong Iowa secondary.
Warren Thompson, WR, Arkansas vs. Alabama - u33.5 Rec Yards (FD)
I’m surprised Thompson was listed since he’s at best the third passing option on the Razorbacks offense, and is coming off a pair of bad games where he dropped three of his six catchable pass opportunities. In Week 3 against Missouri State he caught 1-of-4 passes for 7 yards and a drop while running 31 routes. However last week his stat artificially inflated because of a busted coverage by Texas A&M that went for a 58-yard touchdown where he did literally nothing and was rewarded for it. His other reception was a WR screen for -1 yards, as he caught 2-of-5 passes for 57 yards, a TD and two drops. Thompson’s routes run dropped from 31-to-10 last week and is likely to continue to decrease this week against Alabama since I cannot imagine OC Kendall Briles still has confidence in Thompson’s ability to help the tam win against Alabama. Fellow outside WR Ketron Jackson is a demonstrably better outside receiver while Jadon Haselwood holds down the slot. Thompson is a replacement-level player whose snaps are trending in the wrong direction and is facing Alabama’s stout defense. Accordingly, i’m taking the Under 33.5 Rec Yards on Thompson.
Richard Reese, RB, Baylor vs. Oklahoma State - o54.5 Rush Yards (FD)
This line is a gift, plain and simple, as Reese is listed at 54.5 Rush Yards on FanDuel after being hung at 74.5 yards on Prize Picks all week. Taking over for injured Taye McWilliams, Reese received 19 carries for 156 yards and 3 TDs in his first extended action against Texas State in Week 3. Last week he ran 21 times for 78 yards and a touchdown against a solid Iowa State defense that ranks 21st against the run. Oklahoma State ranks 50th on the ground defensively and Baylor has 4 returning starters from a line that is a top-20 unit nationwide. With Reese having established himself as their 20-carry bell cow for the time being, he is a great bet to clear 54.5 Rush Yards on such a heavy workload and running behind an exceptional offensive line.