Oklahoma at Nebraska - Moved from Oklahoma -5 to 11.5
It isn’t a surprise why this game spiked from a pre-market -5 to 13.5, then back down to 11.5, with FanDuel hanging the high line at 12.5 and SI Sportsbook checking in with the low at 11. Its anyone’s guess how Nebraska responds in the wake of Scott Frost‘s inevitable firing after Nebraska suffered a humiliating 45-42 loss to Georgia Southern, a team in Year 1 of a transition from the option to a more spread based aerial attack. For perspective, this is the same option-based offensive changeover that Georgia Tech attempted three years ago and they’re still one of the worst offenses in the country. NU also dropped a 31-28 decision in Ireland to a Northwestern team that just lost to a rebuilding Duke. With Interim HC Mickey Joseph slated to take over for the rest of the season, the Cornhuskers players know they are going to have a brand new coaching staff coming in 2023 which could jeopardize their standing with the team. There have been no such early season hiccups for new OU HC Brent Venables who has the Sooners humming with a pair of dominant victories over UTEP and Kent State by a combined score of 78-16. I think Oklahoma is able to control the line of scrimmage and snuff out Nebraska’s up tempo offense that ranks 15th in the FBS in time between plays. I think this line spikes up to around 14 again as game time approaches, and I like Oklahoma in a tough spot for the Cornhuskers given the internal strife.
Georgia at South Carolina - Moved from Georgia -13.5 to -24.5
The opening line of 13.5 got immediately destroyed, almost doubling in short order as the public and sharps alike flocked to the positive line value. Georgia’s top ranked defense should feast on South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler who continues to struggle throwing downfield, completing 4-of-11 passes of 20+ yards with 1-to-2 TD/INT ratio and a woeful 1-to-8 Big Time Throw-to-Turnover Worthy Play rate (!). He underthrew or overthrew multiple streaking receivers on potentially big plays that could have turned the game around for SC.
They will need to pass since the Gamecocks are averaging just 2.0 yards per carry and struggled to get anything going against Arkansa last week, gaining just 40 yards on 29 carries. They were reduced to utilizing starting RB Marshawn mostly on screens with their most effective run plays coming on counters and traps as the line struggled to gain ground on the superior Arkansas front. I see a long day in store for Spencer Rattler and the South Carolina offense, hence the massive line movement.
At Notre Dame vs. Cal - Moved from Notre Dame -17.5 to -10
Tyler Buchner is confirmed out for the remainder of the season so it’s up to QB Drew Pyne to break Notre Dame’s losing streak after the Irish fell to Marshall 26-21 last weekend. Buchner was a highly regarded dual-threat quarterback coming out of high school, and he’s an excellent runner, but his passing ability and command of the offense were still very much in question at the time of his injury this weekend though he certainly showed promise. The HC Marcus Freeman era off to a tumultuous start with his defense allowing 219 rushing yards to Marshall while OC Tommy Rees’ offense turned the ball over three times and missing on a couple of vital deep shots that could have turned the game around. Perhaps most troubling about Notre Dame is that their offensive line has cleared the way for just 103 yards per game (111th in FBS) and 3.1 YPC thus far, which could be a problem with a backup QB now at the helm. Pyne is nowhere near as mobile as Buchner, so the short-yardage RPO’s they’ve been running may not be as effective. The fact that this line is hovering around 10 points against Cal who returns 8 total starters from a team that finished 6-10 over the last two years while barely scoring three touchdowns a game tells you all you need to know about the state of the Irish program right now. Cal has undergone an identity change offensively thus far throwing for 273 passing yards (47th in FBS) and 37 passes per game (34th most in FBS) under the leadership of Purdue transfer QB Jack Plummer who has looked promising in completing 69% of his passes against UNLV and UC Davis. The Notre Dame secondary has held up reasonably well, allowing just 145 yards through the air with a long reception of 19 yards against Marshall, but Zach Calzada completed 16-of-21 mostly short and underneath throws. Cal HC Justin Wilcox always pitches a sound defensive unit and likes to play at a methodical pace while Notre Dame has been unable to establish the run. 68% of the spread plays are on Notre Dame -10 in a bounce back spot, but i’m going with Cal and the points.
Ole Miss at Georgia Tech - Moved from Ole Miss -7.5 to -14.5
Georgia Tech has scored 10 points total in their last three games against FBS opponents Georgia, Notre Dame and Clemson, and now face Ole Miss and their HC Lane Kiffin who has shown the willingness to run up a score or two. It’s really tough to rely on a Georgia Tech team that was ravaged by defections, ranking 121st in returning production, and gained just 235 yards while going 2-for-16 in third down situations against Clemson. With HC Kiffin claiming that it’s taking some time for the 16 transfers he brought in to gel, this is a classic spot for Ole Miss to work over the Yellowjackets the entire game as the Rebels get their QB situation straightened out. This line feels like it’s going to hit 17 by kickoff.
Other Sizable Line Moves
BYU at Oregon - Moved from Oregon -6.5 to -3.5
Miami at Texas A&M - Moved from A&M -9 to -5.5
UTSA at Texas - Moved from Texas -15 to -11.5
AT LSU vs. Mississippi State - Moved from LSU - 3.5 to +2
Early Best Bets
Air Force -16 over @Wyoming
At NIU -1.5 over Vanderbilt
At Florida State -2 over Louisville
