All Lines Provided by BetMGM:
West Virginia at Houston (+2.5) | 51.5 - Opened at (+6.5) | 52.5
West Virginia has performed much better than most prognosticators expected, with their HC Neal Brown being told in no uncertain terms that it was time to produce a winning season or find new employment. The Mountaineers have responded with multiple quality wins over TCU, Texas Tech and Pitt over the last 3 games with 75%+ Win Expectancies in each of them. Their defense has been incredible, with DC Jordan Lesley (Troy) improving their production from 33 PPG to 19 PPG this year, a full two-touchdown decrease. They currently rank 14th in defensive success rate (34%) and 17th in EPA/Play and are protected by the sluggish WVU offense that runs a play every 31 seconds, the 8th slowest pace in FBS.
On the other side, Houston got run over by Texas Tech who put up 239 rushing yards on 6.5 YPC on their beleaguered defensive front that is dealing with injuries to their three of their top-four rotational IDL’s. The only team they played where they posted higher than a 28% win expectancy is a winless Sam Houston State that ranks dead last in our of 133 FBS teams in offensive performance. Even lower division programs like UTSA (19% Win Exp) and Rice (1% Win Exp) were able to outplay the Cougars.
With coming off bye and geared up to utilize their battering ram RB CJ Donaldson to emulate Texas Tech’s power-run strategy, i’m taking WVU at -2.5 and riding the Mountaineers to the bank against a Houston team that simply has not acclimated to Big 12 competition yet.
Fresno State at Utah State (+6) | 58.5 - Opened at (+4.5) | 49.5 Total
This total opened 8:41 AM Sunday morning at 49.5 and began a rapid ascent all the way up to 62.5 points by 11:31 AM, where it stayed until Monday morning when it moved back down to 58.5. The volatility is based largely on the questionable health status of Fresno State QB Mikey Keene after going down with an injury in the fourth quarter last week.
The Bulldogs had been on a momentous win streak, winning 14 straight games dating back to last season, while scoring in 25 consecutive quarters heading into their disappointing 24-19 loss to Wyoming on Saturday. Their stalwart defense had allowed only 19 points combined over their last three games, including a shutout of Pac-12 program Arizona State.
While Utah State’s defense is allowing 33 PPG and a 46% success rate (116th) to go with their 91st ranking in EPA/Play, HC Blake Anderson’s fast-paced (7th in plays per second) pass-heavy offense is putting up points in bunches. They put up 44 vs. Colorado State, 34 at UCONN and 38 points vs. James Madison over their last three games, as the Aggies enter the teeth of their MWC schedule. That this game total was ever set at 49.5 is an insult to both of these powerful offenses, as I still think 59.5 is too low. Take the Over before it goes up another 4-6 points by Saturday.
Stanford at Colorado (-12) | 59.5
This Look Ahead line opened weeks ago at - 15, but Reopened at -10 on Sunday morning before taking the express elevator to it’s current -12. It’s impossible for me to trust Stanford against Colorado’s relentless offense considering the Cardinal currently rank 131st in team defense with a ridiculous 52% success rate allowed (132nd), and slotting in at 131st in EPA/Play. I don’t understand how Stanford covers given the tear-down rebuild, Year 0 status of HC Troy Calhoun’s tenure and am backing CU up to -14.
Other Notable Line Movements:
Alabama vs. Arkansas (+19.5) | 48.5 - Opened at +17.5
Iowa at Wisconsin (-10) | 36.5 - Opened at (-7.5)
Boise State at Colorado State (-7.5) | 61 - Opened at (-9.5) | 52.5
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BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Current)
- Georgia +300 to +250
- Michigan +400 to +350
- Oklahoma +2500 to +1400
Highest Ticket%
- Michigan 13.4%
- Colorado 10.1%
- Ohio State 9.2%
Highest Handle%
- Alabama 32.6%
- Michigan 10.9%
- Colorado 10.2%
Biggest Liability
- Colorado
- Alabama
- USC
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, +200
- Caleb Williams +500, +225
- Shedeur Sanders +12500, +15000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off the board (injury)
Highest Ticket%
- Shedeur Sanders 18.9%
- Travis Hunter 15.3%
- Caleb Williams 9.8%
Highest Handle%
- Shedeur Sanders 17.8%
- Caleb Williams 17.6%
- Travis Hunter 11.5%
Biggest Liability
- Shedeur Sanders
- Travis Hunter
- Caleb Williams