The college football schedule this weekend features one top matchup after another. It makes for an entertaining full day. Let me try to help you make it a little more interesting. Here are my top plays for the weekend.
Taylen Green, Arkansas: Over 53.5 Rushing Yards
Notre Dame desperately misses departed DTs Howard Cross and Riley Mills, as the Irish rank 99th in yards before contact and 85th in EPA/Rush Allowed. Green blasted through this number against Ole Miss (14/115) and Arkansas State (9/151), while landing right on the number last week vs. Memphis (12/53). I think the combined ineptitude of these defenses means the current 63.5 O/U might even be too low considering the almost 100 points scored between Purdue and ND last week. Throw in ND’s pitiful 2.6% sack rate (128th) and I think we see Green sail over his 53.5 Rushing Yards mark.
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State: Over 8.5 Rush Yards
In preparation for my on-field attendance at the White Out Game on NBC/Peacock this Saturday Night, I put out a video touting PSU RB Nick Singleton’s O56.5 Rush Yards (up to 68.5 Rush Yards now✅), since I think PSU attacks the soft middle of Oregon’s defense (128th DLine Havoc Rate). I think the thickly built Allar takes advantage of his deficiencies as well, as the opportunity signal caller has cleared 8.5 Rush Yards in 13-of-19 game dating back to last year, with Allar rushing five times for 54 yards against Oregon last season. I’m laying the current -140 juice for Allar to go Over 8.5 Rush Yards
Caleb Komolafe, RB, NW vs. UCLA: Over 68.5 Rush Yards
I had the displeasure of watching UCLA get run over by a limited Utah offense that ranks bottom-15 nationally in offensive explosiveness in Week 1. The Bruins cannot account for the loss of 3 linebackers to the NFL this year and are a shell of their former run-stopping selves. Northwestern stalwart RB Cam Porter is out for the year, with Komokafe taking over and looking much more capable than former Player Props Unders All-American Porter. He ran for 63 yards on 11 carries against FCS WIU then gobbled up 16 totes for 53 yards against Oregon last week. With UCLA fielding one of the worst run defenses in the country, I think Northwestern takes advantage and Kimokafe benefits with a big game for the Wildcats.
Anthony Hankerson, RB, Oregon State: Under 60.5 Rushing Yards
I have been completely underwhelmed by the entire Oregon State offense this far, as they have struggled to replace their 4 departed starters on the offensive line. For his part, Hankerson has been marginalized by elevated competition, accruing just 92 rushing yards in three KC tests against P4 opponents. This week 0-4 OSU takes on undefeated Houston that plays extremely slow and grinds opponents down with ruthless down-to-down efficiency in typical HC Willie Fritz style. I don’t think OSU can hang with Houston, which means Hankerson goes 0-for-4 against his rushing number of 60.5 Rushing Yards.
Max Klare, TE, OSU: Under 22.5 Receiving Yards
Ohio State is running 3 tight ends through their lineup, with Purdue transfer Klare forced to wait his turn in the pecking order after arriving this year. He caught two passes for 30 years in a 37-9 drubbing of Ohio but was barely a factor in the previous two games, catching just one ball in each. With Klare muddled in a TE rotation, I’m
Backing him to go Under 22.5 Receiving Yards against the Huskies.
More College Football Bets to consider:
(Friday Night) Chandler Morris, QB, UVA: Over 242.5 Passing Yards
Dean Connors, RB, Houston: Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
Lake McRee, TE, USC: Under 2.5 Receptions
Week 5 features more than a handful of electrifying matchups. Enjoy as many of them as you can and I hope you cash a few tickets along the way.
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