Don’t look now but the Indiana Hoosiers are looking like last season’s run to the College Football Playoff was the start of something in Bloomington. Curt Cignetti’s team again this season is piling up the points and bludgeoning opponents. Saturday afternoon the No. 11 Hoosiers (4-0) are in Iowa to face Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes (3-1).
Game Details and How to watch Indiana at Iowa
- Date: Saturday, September 27th, 2025
- Time: 3:30P Eastern
- Site: Memorial Stadium
- City: Iowa City, IA
- TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Game Odds for Indiana at Iowa
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Iowa Hawkeyes (+240), Indiana Hoosiers (-298)
- Spread: Indiana -7.5 (-108)
- Total: 48.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Lets dive into each team and find a bet or two for this blockbuster.
Indiana Hoosiers
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 10th
Defense Ranking: 11th
Strength of Schedule: 26th
The 2025 Indiana Hoosiers opened their season with four dominant wins, outscoring opponents 219–33 and climbing to No. 6 in the SP+ rankings. The Hoosiers lead the nation in offensive success rate (60.7%) and ranked No. 1 in passing success rate (64.5%), while defensively holding opponents to a meager 26.8% success rate (2nd nationally) and 25.7% passing success rate (3rd). Their +5 turnover margin (10th nationally) and overall havoc rate of 31.1% (1st) highlight a defense that has consistently overwhelmed opposing offenses. Indiana also posted a staggering adjusted scoring margin of +37.8 PPG, punctuated by a 63–10 thrashing of Illinois, proving last year was no fluke with the Hoosiers being a serious Big Ten contender once again under 2nd-year HC Curt Cignetti.
The Indiana Hoosiers Offense
Through the first four games of 2025, Indiana’s offense has operated at an elite level, ranking 6th overall in SP+ and 10th in offensive SP+, with their 60.7% success rate pacing the entire FBS. The Hoosiers are devastating on early downs, with a 61.1% standard-down success rate (7th nationally), while also ranking top-5 in both rushing (58.7%) and passing (64.5%) success rate. They’ve produced explosive results despite a methodical tempo (30.0 seconds/play, 121st), averaging 7.98 yards per play (8th) and 4.27 points per drive (5th), aided by a blistering 76.1% completion rate and 15.0 yards ANY/A through the air. Indiana’s ability to stay on schedule, protect the football (0 INTs), and avoid negative plays (lowest rate of <=0 yard plays in FBS) has powered them to a 4–0 start with a +21.9 PPG margin over SP+ projections.
Hoosier to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza
The signal-caller has delivered a Heisman-esque start to the 2025 campaign, completing 76.8% of his passes for 975 yards and an eye-popping 14-to-0 TD-INT ratio across Indiana’s first four games. He is excelling in efficiency and decision-making, ranking among national leaders in success rate (65.3%), yards per completion (12.8), and adjusted net yards per attempt (12.9), all while absorbing sacks on just 2.9% of dropbacks. Mendoza has also contributed as a runner, gaining 80 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries, with a healthy 68.4% rushing success rate. Whether pushing the ball downfield or executing zone reads, Mendoza has emerged as the centerpiece of Indiana’s explosive, mistake-free offensive attack.
The Indiana Hoosiers Defense
Through four games, Indiana’s defense has been one of the most dominant and disruptive units in the country, ranking #2 nationally in Success Rate allowed (26.8%) and holding opponents to just 4.24 yards per play (24th). The Hoosiers lead the nation in overall Havoc Rate (31.1%), with elite production from the defensive line (15.0% DL Havoc Rate, #1) and aggressive ball-hawking from the secondary (9.3% DB Havoc Rate, #7). They’ve turned that disruption into real results, allowing just 0.67 points per drive (5th) and posting a +5 turnover margin that ranks 10th nationally. Indiana’s pass defense has been particularly stingy, allowing a 25.7% success rate (#3) and just 3.8 yards per dropback (#6) while posting Top 5 national marks in EPA/dropback and INT rate (5.7%).
Hoosier to Watch on Defense: LB Isaiah Jones
The linebacker has been a disruptive force in the heart of Indiana’s defense over the first four games of 2025. The junior linebacker leads the team with 3.0 sacks, ranks second in total havoc plays (6.0), and has compiled 14 tackles—71.4% of which have come against the run. He’s created pressure on 16.7% of his pass rushes, with 2 sacks created and two pressures leading to third-down stops. While Jones has allowed all 3 targets in coverage to be caught, they’ve totaled just 26 yards (8.7 YPA) thanks to his strong tackling acumen.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 61st
Defense Ranking: 19th
Strength of Schedule: 13th
Through the first four games of 2025, the Iowa Hawkeyes have leaned on a defense-first formula to start 3-1, with their lone loss coming in a narrow 16–13 defeat at Iowa State. Offensively Iowa has been efficient on the ground with a 55.6% rushing success rate (12th nationally), ranking 13th in standard-down success rate and boasting the nation’s lowest stuff rate (8.6%), yet it remains explosive-averse ranking 108th in yards per play. Defensively, DC Phil Parker’s unit has held firm against both the run and pass—ranking 10th in rushing yards allowed per carry and 20th in yards per play—while also forcing 3-and-outs on nearly 40% of drives. Iowa’s SP+ ranking (35th overall) reflects a strong defensive core and improved special teams (21st SP+), but persistent inefficiencies in passing situations (134th PD success rate) continue to cap the ceiling of Tim Lester’s offense.
The Iowa Hawkeyes Offense
Through four games in 2025, Iowa’s offense has relied on a highly efficient and physical ground game, ranking 12th nationally in rushing success rate (55.6%) and 1st in stuff rate (8.6%), with a crawling pace of play (119th in seconds per play). The Hawkeyes average 5.2 yards per rush (59th) and 2.82 yards after contact (50th), but struggle mightily to generate chunk plays, charting 133rd in marginal explosiveness and 107th in rate of 20+ yard gains. Their passing game remains conservative and inefficient, with a 118th-ranked 5.3 yards per dropback and a 92nd-ranked 0.02 EPA/dropback, though they avoid negative plays with the 28th-lowest pressure rate allowed (1.4%). Despite solid success on standard downs (13th), their performance collapses on passing downs (134th in success rate) limiting their ability to convert in long-yardage situations and keep drives alive through the air.
Hawkeye to Watch on Offense: QB Mark Gronowski
The Iowa QB has led the offense with a versatile dual-threat skillset, completing 60.5% of his passes for 492 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception while adding 186 rushing yards and 6 scores on the ground. As a passer, he’s posted a modest 7.5 ANY/A with a low success rate (48.8%) and heavy sack vulnerability, taking sacks on 9.0% of dropbacks and 33.3% of pressures. His 10.0 yards per completion shows downfield intent, but the low yards per dropback (5.1) and Total QBR of 44.5 suggest inefficiency in sustained drives. On the ground, however, Gronowski has been a valuable asset—posting a stellar 73.7% success rate, 50% first down conversion rate, and 6 rushing touchdowns on 38 attempts.
The Iowa Hawkeyes Defense
The defense has been characteristically stout through the first four games of 2025, ranking 19th in SP+ and allowing just 4.19 yards per play (20th nationally). They’re limiting opponents to a 36.3% success rate (40th) and rank 6th in yards per successful play (10.0), showcasing their ability to prevent explosive gains. Iowa’s pass defense is notably stingy, holding opponents to just 5.0 yards per dropback (32nd) and ranking Top 15 in overall Havoc Rate (25th), driven by elite DB Havoc (15th) and a 35% blitz rate (24th). The Hawkeyes’ run defense has been quite formidable, allowing 3.1 YPC (10th) and 1.53 YAC (3rd). However, they also show vulnerability at times, ranking 52nd in EPA/rush with a 37% rushing success rate allowed (43rd).
Hawkeye to Watch on Defense: Edge Max Llewellyn
Llewellyn has been a disruptive presence for the Hawkeyes through four games, generating a team-high 4.0 sacks and 8 total pressures on 53 pass-rush snaps (15.1% pressure rate). He has produced first pressure on five occasions, with a brisk average time-to-pressure of 2.39 seconds and a solid 19.0% pressure rate on third downs. Llewellyn’s impact goes beyond pass rushing, as he’s also contributed 11 total tackles (6 solo) with a perfect 100% tackle rate and two run stops. His 4.0 havoc plays and team-leading sack total underscore his importance as Iowa’s top edge threat.
Hoosiers vs. Hawkeyes team stats, betting trends
- Iowa has won 7 straight home games
- Indiana is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games as the favorite
- Indiana’s last 3 games have gone OVER the Total
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Indiana -7.5
Indiana has picked up right where they left off after making their Cinderella appearance in the CFP Playoff, cruising to a 4-0 record heading into their home tilt against Iowa. With Iowa’s well-documented troubles generating big plays, I have a hard time believing they can score enough to hang with the potent Hoosiers offense. I am strongly backing Indiana (-7.5) to win and cover at home against a limited Hawkeyes’ offense.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Iowa and Iowa:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Iowa Hawkeyes at +7.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 48.5.
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