Undefeated and second-ranked Indiana (9-0) look to remain perfect and make history with their first-ever win at Beaver Stadium when they face a spiraling Penn State team on Saturday.
Indiana boasts a high-powered offense led by Heisman-hopeful Fernando Mendoza and an elite defense that ranks Top 5 nationally in both pass and run blocking. This will present a significant challenge for a Penn State team dealing with a five-game losing streak, the firing of its head coach, and a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Drew Allar.
While the Nittany Lions have historically dominated the series (25-2) and are undefeated against the Hoosiers in Happy Valley, many analysts predict the dynamic Hoosiers, who are 14.5-point favorites, will secure their first-ever win in University Park in what is a tale of two programs on opposite ends of the spectrum.
Lets take a closer look at both schools, a few key players, and some important numbers.
Game Details and How to watch Indiana at Penn State
- Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
- Time: 12:00PM Eastern
- Site: Beaver Stadium
- City: Happy Valley, PA
- TV/Streaming: FOX
Game Odds for Indiana at Penn State
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Indiana Hoosiers (-625), Penn State (+455)
- Spread: Indiana -14.5 (-110)
- Total: 49.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head Coach: Terry Smith (Interim HC)
2025 Record: 3-5
Offense Ranking: 30
Defense Ranking: 25
Strength of Schedule: 19
Penn State has stumbled to a 3-5 record despite sporting the 22nd overall SP+ profile, losing five straight after a dominant 3-0 start against an easy non-conference slate. The offense ranks 30th in SP+ behind a Top 25 rushing attack and elite offensive line protection (only 1.8% pressure rate, 16th), but the unit ranks 132nd in explosiveness and struggles to produce chunk plays—ranking outside the Top 120 in explosive run and pass rates. The defense, coordinated by Jim Knowles, sits 25th in SP+ but lacks playmaking on the back end (118th in DB havoc rate) and has faltered in key moments, ranking 103rd in third-down defense and 77th in sack rate. With four games remaining and a projected finish of 6-6, PSU needs a strong November to secure bowl eligibility and stop the bleeding in what has become a disappointing follow-up to a 13-win 2024 campaign.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Offense
Penn State’s offense ranks 30th in SP+ thanks to reasonably efficient down-to-down execution (33rd in success rate, 30th in down-set conversion) and a physical rushing attack that averages 3.23 yards after contact (18th nationally) with a Top 25 stuff rate allowed. Despite elite offensive line metrics (6th in pressure rate, 3rd in penalties/game) the unit has been hamstrung by a lack of explosiveness, sitting 132nd in marginal explosiveness and 126th in plays gaining 20+ yards. The passing game is efficient underneath (54th in completion rate) but ranks 128th in completion rate on 20+ yard throws and just 132nd in yards per successful dropback. While the unit finishes drives well (27th in points per drive, 40th in red-zone scoring), its methodical style (113th in plays per game) leaves little margin for error without quick-strike capability.
Penn State Player to Watch on Offense: RB Kaytron Allen
Kaytron Allen has been Penn State’s most reliable offensive weapon, churning out 688 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 119 carries while posting an efficient 5.78 yards per rush. His 52.1% rushing success rate and 31.9% first‑down rate underscore his consistency as a chain mover, pairing strong vision (2.19 yards before contact) with advanced tackle-breaking acumen (4.05 yards after contact per attempt). Although not a home‑run hitter (14.3% of his carries go for 10+ yards), Allen’s low stuff rate (9.2%) and 0 fumbles show how dependable he is in early‑down, ball‑control situations. He’s also a functional outlet in the passing game, catching 12 of 17 targets (70.6%), mostly on short, backfield‑aligned routes—while converting nearly half of those receptions into successful plays.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Defense
Penn State’s defense has struggled to maintain the elite standard of past seasons, slipping to 25th in SP+ behind lapses in explosive-play prevention and minimal turnover creation. While the defensive front ranks a respectable 23rd in DL havoc and 41st in stuff rate, they’ve failed to translate pressure into sacks ranking just 78th in sack rate and 65th in sack conversion percentage. The Nittany Lions’ back-end has allowed 6.1 yards per dropback (63rd) and generates little disruption in coverage (118th in DB havoc, 84th in PD-to-INC ratio), despite playing one of the nation’s highest rates of man coverage (25th). However, they remain tough in the red zone (73.7% goal-to-go TD rate, 55th) and limit success against zone looks (2nd in YPP vs. zone), giving them a bend-but-don’t-break identity that’s been tested heavily by the nation’s 6th-hardest schedule.
Penn State Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Dani Dennis-Sutton
Dani Dennis‑Sutton has emerged as Penn State’s most disruptive front‑seven defender, posting 8 havoc plays, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks and a team‑high 8 run stops through seven games. He’s been highly efficient against the run, converting 71.4% of his tackles on rushing plays and finishing with an 87.5% overall tackling rate. As a pass rusher, Dennis‑Sutton leads the roster with 152 rush snaps and 19 total pressures (12.5% pressure rate), including 15 first‑pressure wins and two drawn penalties that stalled drives. His blend of power and technique shows up in short‑area wins—he doesn’t always finish with sacks, but he consistently alters the pocket and ranks top‑three on the team in both TFLs and pressures.
Indiana Hoosiers
Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2025 Record: 9-0
Offense Ranking: 1
Defense Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: 43
Indiana has once again surged to national prominence in 2025 under HC Curt Cignetti, riding the nation’s No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense in SP+ to a 9-0 record and a very realistic College Football Playoff berth. The Hoosiers rank Top 5 in nearly every advanced efficiency metric, including second in offensive success rate (54.6%) and first in EPA/play, while also boasting the 2nd-ranked adjusted net yards per attempt (12.8) and No. 3 QBR (90.3). Defensively, Indiana has been equally stifling - leading the country in havoc rate (25.9%), ranking third in stuff rate (29.4%), and allowing just 0.84 points per drive (No. 3 nationally), with elite pass rush metrics (8th sack rate, 9th pressure rate). With a projected win total north of 11 and a national title probability near 24%, this team has quietly become one of the most dominant two-way forces in all of college football.
The Indiana Hooisers Offense
Indiana’s offense in 2025 has emerged as the most efficient unit in the nation, ranking No. 1 in SP+, EPA/play, and points per drive (3.79), while converting an astounding 84.0% of new downs—the top mark nationally. Quarterback play under Fernando Mendoza has been electric, leading the country in passing EPA per dropback (0.50), ranking second in adjusted completion rate (79.0%), and delivering a blistering 12.8 ANY/A with a 90.3 QBR. The Hoosiers are equally dominant on the ground, ranking 7th in rushing success rate (51.6%) and 5th in stuff rate allowed (13.0%), while the offensive line ranks Top 10 in pressure allowed (1.6%) and total blown block rate. With a playbook that mixes power and precision, Indiana’s offense overwhelms opponents with consistent success and explosive potential on both standard and passing downs.
Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza has emerged as a potential Top 10 NFL Draft selection, completing 72.3% of his passes for 2,124 yards, 25 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions while producing an elite 90.0 Total QBR. He ranks among the national leaders with a gaudy 13.1 yards per completion, an 11.1 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), and a 60.6% success rate through the air, showcasing precision and downfield explosiveness. As a runner, Mendoza has added 259 yards and 4 scores on 43 carries (6.02 YPC), with a 67.4% rushing success rate and nearly half of his attempts converting first downs. His efficiency, ball security, and ability to impact both phases make him one of the most complete signal-callers in the nation.
The Indiana Hoosiers Defense
Indiana’s defense has played at a championship-caliber level, ranking No. 2 nationally in SP+ and allowing just 0.84 points per drive—third-best in the country. The Hoosiers lead the nation in havoc rate (25.9%) and defensive line havoc (11.0%), creating constant disruption behind the line of scrimmage while boasting the No. 1 red zone TD rate at a suffocating 15.4%. Their pass defense has been especially stingy, ranking Top 10 in EPA/dropback, yards per dropback (4.7), and interceptions (5.0% INT rate), while holding opponents to a minuscule 4.6 YPP overall. With elite pressure rates, third-down stinginess (No. 2), and smothering zone coverage efficiency, this Indiana defense is suffocating foes with disciplined aggression.
Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: LB Isaiah Jones
Isaiah Jones has been a leader at inside linebacker, pacing the team with 14 havoc plays, including 10 tackles for loss and 5 sacks, while maintaining an elite 82.7% tackle rate. He’s been highly active against the run, with 58.1% of his stops coming in run defense while tallying 6 run stops and 2 forced fumbles. As a blitzer, Jones is arguably the most efficient pressure creator on the team, generating 11 pressures on just 46 rushes (23.9% pressure rate), with 4 sacks created and a 35.3% third-down pressure rate. In coverage, he has allowed completions on 8-of-9 targets (88.9%) but kept the damage modest at 5.0 yards per attempt with a solid 68.8 defensive QBR.
Indiana at Penn State team stats, betting trends
- Indiana has won 3 straight on the road
- Indiana has covered in 4 of its last 5 games as a road favorite
- The Over is 6-2 this season for Penn State
- The Over is 6-3 this season for Indiana
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Nick Singleton UNDER 61.5 yards rushing
There has been a restructuring in the Penn State running back room following former HC James Franklin’s dismissal, with RB Kaytron Allen outcarrying Nick Singleton 49-to-12 over the last two games. With the NFL looming in his future, Singleton has settled into a clear RB2 role behind the steady Allen. With his usage dwindling and Singleton seemingly focused on his next step, I’m taking his Under 61.5 total yardage line.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for
every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Indiana and Penn State
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Penn State Nittany Lions at +14.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 48.5.
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