Game Details and How to watch LSU at Ole Miss
- Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
- Time: 3:30P Eastern
- Site: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
- City: Oxford, MS
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for LSU at Ole Miss
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: LSU Tigers (+105), Ole Miss Rebels (-125)
- Spread: Ole Miss -1.5 (-112)
- Total: 56.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
LSU Tigers
Head Coach: Brian Kelly
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 21st
Defense Ranking: 5th
Strength of Schedule: 2nd
Through the first four games of the 2025 season, LSU is a perfect 4–0 and is slightly outperforming their metrics, with a second-order win total of 3.5 and an SP+ ranking of 14th nationally. The defense has been the backbone of the team, ranking 7th in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 9.3 points per game, including limiting Florida and Clemson to 10 points each. Offensively, LSU boasts a 70% completion rate but ranks just 76th in yards per play (5.7) and 94th in points per scoring opportunity, highlighting red zone inefficiencies. Despite lackluster rushing efficiency and poor explosiveness metrics, the Tigers are winning the turnover battle and rank Top 15 in adjusted scoring margin at +19.7 points per game.
The LSU Tigers Offense
LSU’s offense through the first four weeks of 2025 has been steady but unspectacular, ranking 29th in Offensive SP+ and 76th in yards per play (5.70). The Tigers have leaned heavily on the short passing game, completing 70% of their throws, but rank just 120th nationally in explosive passing rate with only 10.5% of attempts going for 20+ yards. Rushing efficiency has been a major weakness, with a 38.7% success rate (108th), just 0.80 yards before contact per carry (117th), and a stuff rate of 21.8% (also 108th). Despite red zone struggles—ranking 94th in points per scoring opportunity—the unit has maintained drives well and protected the ball against top-tier competition, helping LSU remain undefeated.
LSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Garrett Nussmeier
The upperclassman has been the steady hand guiding LSU’s offense through the first four games of 2025, starting all four contests and completing 68.6% of his passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. While his 10.2 yards per completion and 7.5 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) reflect a conservative pass game in the early going, his success rate of 50.0% indicates a balanced, chain-moving approach. Nussmeier has done well limiting negative plays, posting a commendable 4.2% sack rate despite being pressured on 20.0% of his dropbacks. As a runner, he’s added 29 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts with an opportunistic 85.7% rushing success rate, helping to keep the offense on schedule when plays break down.
The LSU Tigers Defense
LSU’s defense has been the backbone of its 4–0 start in 2025, ranking 7th in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.21 yards per play (21st nationally). The Tigers rank 11th in points allowed per drive (0.82) and have excelled in passing defense, giving up just 4.7 yards per dropback (24th) and allowing only 9.0% of completions to go for 20+ yards (10th). They’ve dominated in high-leverage moments, ranking 4th in 3rd-and-long (7+ yards) success rate allowed (7.7%) and 8th in passing-down success rate allowed (15.7%). While their linebacker havoc rate is extremely low (131st), LSU has made up for it with elite defensive back play (21st in DB havoc) and strong red zone stands, ranking 13th in goal-to-go TD rate allowed.
LSU Player to Watch on Defense: CB Mansoor Delane
LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane has been a lockdown presence in the secondary through the first four games of 2025, allowing just 3 completions on 20 targets for a minuscule 15.0% completion rate. He’s racked up 5 havoc plays—including 1 interception and 4 pass breakups—while forcing incompletions on 25% of his targets and giving up just 43 total yards. Delane’s air yards allowed per attempt sits at 12.6, but thanks to excellent positioning and recovery speed he has held opponents to just 2.1 yards per attempt and 0.38 yards per coverage snap. He’s also contributed in run support, tallying 8 solo tackles with an 80% tackle rate and zero missed tackles.
Ole Miss Rebels
School: Ole Miss
Head Coach: Lane Kiffin
2025 Record: 4-0
Offense Ranking: 5th
Defense Ranking: 17th
Strength of Schedule: 27th
Through the first four weeks of the 2025 season Ole Miss has surged to a 4–0 start behind one of the nation’s most effective offenses. HC Lane Kiffin’s Rebels rank 7th overall in SP+ with the 5th-ranked offense, averaging 7.44 yards per play (14th nationally) and a robust 54.1% success rate (14th), while generating 20+ yard plays on 11% of snaps (6th). Despite some inconsistencies on defense—ranking just 55th in success rate and 104th in rushing success rate allowed—the Rebels have consistently outpaced their SP+ projections, most notably with a 63–7 demolition of Georgia State and a 45–10 rout of Tulane. With marquee SEC clashes against LSU, Georgia, and Oklahoma still to come, Ole Miss holds a 52.7% chance of making the CFP and a 33% probability of reaching 11+ wins according to SP+.
The Ole Miss Rebels Offense
The 2025 Ole Miss offense has exploded out of the gates under Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr, ranking 5th nationally in Offensive SP+ while scoring 45+ points in three of four games. The Rebels have been ruthlessly efficient, ranking Top 20 in success rate (54.1%, 14th), points per drive (3.65, 17th), and yards per play (7.44, 14th), while also sitting 4th nationally in yards per dropback (10.4). A ruthless efficiency is evident in their Top 10 rushing success rate (56.5%, 9th) and #2 ranking in completions of 20+ yards (32.9%), fueled by strong early down execution and elite passing explosiveness. Despite a high-pressure tempo (8th-fastest in the country), the Rebels remain efficient in situational football, boasting a 53.1% third-down conversion rate (16th) and a 100% fourth-down conversion rate.
Ole Miss Player to Watch: RB Kewan Lacy
Kewan Lacy has emerged as a high-usage back, recording 79 carries for 358 yards and 7 touchdowns with a respectable 4.53 yards per carry. His efficiency is solid, boasting a 54.4% success rate and converting 36.7% of his carries into first downs, though 19.0% of his attempts have been stopped for no gain or a loss. While he doesn’t generate many explosive plays (10.1% of rushes go for 10+ yards), his physicality is apparent with 3.30 yards after contact per carry and a respectable missed tackle rate of 0.26 per attempt. Lacy is also reliable in the passing game, catching 8 of 9 targets for 47 yards (88.9% catch rate) with a 52.3% success rate and no drops, mostly operating out of the backfield.
The Ole Miss Rebels Defense
The Ole Miss defense has been opportunistic but inconsistent through four games, ranking 17th in SP+ yet allowing a 45.1% rushing success rate (104th) and 5.5 yards per carry (112th). The unit’s pass defense has been far more effective, holding opponents to just a 30.9% passing success rate (16th) and a 49.2% completion rate (3rd), while generating a strong -0.21 EPA/dropback. However, Pete Golding’s crew is struggling to generate pressure, ranking 126th in sack rate and 127th in sacks per pressure, despite a respectable 33.1% pressure rate. Tackling and havoc creation remain weaknesses—Ole Miss is struggling in both tackle success rate (80th) and overall havoc rate (104th)—but the Rebels have largely held firm in the red zone, allowing just 3.79 points per scoring opportunity (47th).
Ole Miss Player to Watch: DT Zxavian Harris
Ole Miss defensive tackle Zxavian Harris has been a monster through the first three games of the 2025 season, posting 22 tackles, 13 solo stops and a perfect 100.0% tackle rate. Harris leads the Rebels in both tackles for loss (4.5) and havoc plays (6.0) while adding 2.0 sacks and a forced fumble recovery on the interior. As a pass rusher, he’s registered 9 total pressures on 70 rushes for a solid 12.9% pressure rate, creating 7 first pressures and collapsing pockets with a 2.83-second average time to pressure. His disruptive presence is foundational to Ole Miss’ defensive identity, showcasing consistency against both the run and pass.
Tigers at Rebels team stats, betting trends
- Ole Miss has won 17 of its last 18 at home
- Ole Miss is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 games
- The OVER is 4-1 in Ole Miss’ last 5 games
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Game Total Under 54.5 Points
Second year LSU DC Blake Baker has their defense in top form, with LSU preferring to slow games down (120th in pace) by employing a more conservative offensive gameplan designed to rely upon their defense. So far, so good as LSU has yet to see one of their 3 games against FBS opponents cross the 30-point threshold, never mind the 54.5 total points game total that the books have set for this contest. While Ole Miss has a potent offensive attack no matter which QB (Simmons or Chambliss) gets the starting nod, I think LSU can slow the game down enough to cash the Under 54.5 total points.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Tigers and the Rebels:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Ole Miss Rebels at -1.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 54.5.
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