The Red River Rivalry is renewed Saturday at the Cotton Bowl as No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) takes on Texas (3-2). No question the start to this season has been a major disappointment for Arch Manning and the Longhorns but a win over the undefeated Sooners would hush the haters for at least a moment and potentially put a playoff bid back in play for the team ranked No. 1 at the start of the season. News out of Norman, though, is that Heisman candidate and team leader QB John Mateer (hand) is pushing hard to return from the disabled list (surgery on September 24) and lead the Sooners against their arch-rivals. How important is Mateer to Oklahoma’s offense? The transfer from Washington State is second in the country averaging 351.3 yards per game of total offense. News of his potential return has cut the spread in half as Texas is now favored by but 1.5 points.
Lets dive deeper into the matchup and take a look at each school, a couple top players from each, and find a couple bets to sweat, perhaps.
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Game Details and How to watch No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas
- Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025
- Time: 3:30PM Eastern
- Site: Cotton Bowl
- City: Dallas, TX
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners (-102), Texas Longhorns (-118)
- Spread: Texas -1.5 (-105)
- Total: 43.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach: Brent Venables
2025 Record: 5-0
Offense Ranking: 23
Defense Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: 7
Oklahoma has surged to a 5–0 start behind a defense that ranks 2nd nationally in SP+, allowing just 3.5 yards per play (1st) and 0.59 points per drive (2nd). Brent Venables’ unit has been ferocious on standard and passing downs alike, posting an 11.1% passing downs success rate allowed (1st) and a 13.5% sack rate (1st) while forcing opponents into third-and-long 65% of the time. Offensively, the Sooners remain efficient if unspectacular, ranking 23rd in offensive SP+ with a 48.6% success rate (28th) and 9th nationally in red-zone touchdown rate (75%), though they struggle generating explosive plays (88th in yards per successful play). With elite defensive front disruption (22.2% havoc rate, 7th) and a balanced offense under new coordinator Ben Arbuckle, Oklahoma has reestablished itself as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender in 2025.
The Oklahoma Sooners Offense
The Oklahoma offense under coordinator Ben Arbuckle has been efficient but methodical, ranking 23rd in SP+ with a 48.6% success rate (28th nationally) and 75.5% first-down conversion rate (47th). The Sooners rely on a quick-passing rhythm, posting a 50.3% passing success rate (22nd) and 7.4 yards per dropback while limiting pressures to just 2.1% of attempts, indicating strong protection and scheme efficiency. However, they’ve struggled to generate explosive runs — averaging only 4.1 yards per carry (121st) and ranking 103rd in EPA per rush — leading to an overall moderate explosiveness profile (85th). Despite lacking big-play punch, Oklahoma thrives on sustained drives, ranking 25th in red-zone TD rate (75%) and complementing their elite defense with mistake-free, situationally sound offensive execution.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Offense: QB John Mateer
Quarterback John Mateer has provided steady dual-threat production for Oklahoma through four starts, completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions while averaging an impressive 12.8 yards per completion. He’s shown solid down-to-down efficiency with a 52.7% success rate and a 9.1 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), demonstrating his ability to sustain drives within Ben Arbuckle’s balanced system. As a runner, Mateer adds dimension to the offense, rushing 39 times for 211 yards and 5 touchdowns with a 56.4% success rate and over 4 yards after contact per carry. His combination of efficient passing, mobility, and low sack rate (2.8%) has made him an ideal fit for Oklahoma’s quick-paced, rhythm-oriented attack. He is considered a true gametime decision, with backup QB Michael Hawkins taking the reins if Mateer can’t suit up.
The Oklahoma Sooners Defense
The Oklahoma defense has been the nation’s most dominant unit through five games, ranking 2nd in SP+ and 1st in both yards per play (3.5) and points per drive allowed (0.59). Brent Venables’ group thrives on suffocating efficiency, limiting opponents to just a 22.1% success rate (1st nationally) and a 17.4% third-down conversion rate (1st), while holding offenses to a 23.2% passing success rate and 3.4 yards per rush. Their pressure package has been devastating, generating a 41.9% pressure rate and 13.5% sack rate, both top five in the FBS, anchored by a defensive front that ranks 4th in DL havoc rate and 5th in LB havoc rate. Complemented by elite red-zone discipline (2.57 points per scoring opportunity, 2nd), Oklahoma’s defense has transformed into a suffocating unit that controls games from start to finish.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Taylor Wein
Defensive end Taylor Wein has been a monster off the edge for Oklahoma, recording 12 total tackles, including 5.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks over five games, with a whopping 91.7% of his tackles coming against the run. His 6 havoc plays reflect a nose for the football, and he’s also generated 2 run stops, showcasing strong edge containment. As a pass rusher, Wein has notched 10 pressures on 57 rushes, good for a 17.5% pressure rate, while generating a team-best 2.43 seconds average time to first pressure. With 10 first pressures and an ability to convert pressure into disruption consistently, Wein is emerging as the Sooners’ most complete defensive linemen.
Texas Longhorns
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2025 Record: 3-2
Offense Ranking: 53
Defense Ranking: 4
Strength of Schedule: 14
Texas enters the middle of the 2025 season with a 3–2 record and the 20th overall SP+ ranking, thanks to a suffocating defense that ranks 4th nationally by SP+ and limits opponents to just 4.34 yards per play (17th). Offensively, however, the Longhorns have underwhelmed ranking 53rd in SP+ while struggling mightily on third downs (114th in success rate) and in red zone execution (90th red zone TD rate), despite a Top 10 rate of explosive passes. Their offensive line has quietly been a bright spot, ranking Top 20 nationally in pressure rate allowed (16th), blown run blocks (15th), and total blown blocks (17th). The Longhorns face a brutal remaining schedule—six of their next eight opponents are ranked in the SP+ Top 45—including likely losses at Georgia and against Texas A&M, making bowl eligibility a realistic but not guaranteed outcome.
The Texas Longhorns Offense
Texas’ offense has been inconsistent through five games, ranking 53rd in Offensive SP+ and struggling on third downs (114th in conversion rate) and red zone scoring (90th in red zone TD rate). The Longhorns generate explosive gains through the air—ranking 10th nationally in both yards per successful dropback (18.1) and completion rate on passes of 20+ yards (23.6%)—but overall passing success is lacking (82nd), especially on passing downs (85th). Their run game is relatively efficient on early downs (45th in success rate) but chunk plays have been scarce (93rd in yards per successful rush), limiting drive sustainability. Bright spots include an offensive line that ranks Top 20 in pressure rate allowed (16th) and blown block rate (17th) offering a sturdy foundation despite the unit’s broader inefficiencies.
Texas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Arch Manning
Arch Manning has thrown for 1,151 yards and 11 touchdowns across five starts while completing 60% of his passes with a strong 14.2 yards per completion average. His aggressive downfield approach is evident in his 9.0 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), but his passing success rate sits at just 41.6% with a 6.3% sack rate, indicating room for improvement on standard downs and efficiency throws. As a rusher, Manning has been dynamic and physical, logging 169 yards and 5 touchdowns at 4.97 yards per carry with a robust 55.9% success rate and 18.6% of his runs going for 10+ yards. His dual-threat ability is a core part of Texas’ offense, as he leads the team in both total touchdowns and rushing explosiveness.
The Texas Longhorns Defense
Texas boasts a Top 5 defense nationally (4th in SP+), anchored by a dominant front that ranks 5th in yards per play allowed (4.34), 2nd in EPA per rush (-0.31), and 5th in points per drive surrendered (0.92). The run defense is especially stout, ranking 5th in yards per carry allowed (3.3) and 4th in yards after contact per carry (1.71), while the defensive line has the 10th-best stuff rate (21.7%). Texas excels on early downs (7th in down set conversion rate allowed) and is borderline elite at limiting big plays (9th in % of plays allowed of 20+ yards). However, they’ve struggled in high-leverage moments, ranking 122nd in goal-to-go TD rate allowed (100%) suggesting situational inconsistency despite their dominant baseline metrics.
Texas Player to Watch on Defense: LB Liona Lefau
Liona Lefau has emerged as a tone-setter of the Texas defense, leading the team with 23 total tackles across four games, including 13 solo stops and an impressive 85.2% tackle rate. As an every-down inside linebacker, Lefau has been stout against the run (73.9% of his tackles came on rushing plays), and he’s shown disruptive potential with 4 total havoc plays—including 3.0 tackles for loss and a sack. His 30.8% with a 2.41 second average time-to-pressure. Lefau also leads all Longhorn defenders with 5 run stops to go with a pass breakup, solidifying his role as a multi-dimensional playmaker in the middle.
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas team stats, betting trends
- Texas has won 3 straight home games
- Texas is 1-4 ATS this season
- Texas is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games as a favorite
- Oklahoma’s 5 games this season have stayed under the Total
- Oklahoma is 2-2-1 ATS this season
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Texas Team Total Under 21.5 points
Oklahoma has arguably fielded the best defense in the country, ranking 1st in both rushing and passing success rate, as the most points they’ve allowed all season being 17 points to Auburn. Texas was held to 7 points by Matt Patricia’s vicious Ohio State D, and 21 points last week when they were upset by Florida. For perspective, 53% of Texas’ 3rd down opportunities are in 7+ yard situations, which they convert at a ghastly 11.8% rate that ranks 132nd in FBS. Their running backs ran for a combined 15 yards vs. FLA as this Longhorns offense is a mess right now. With Oklahoma having gone Under their totals in every game this season by an average of 11 points per game, I’m taking Texas to score Under 21.5 points against the Sooners.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 6 Oklahoma and Texas
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Texas Longhorns -1.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the over on the Game Total of 43.5.
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