The No. 23 Missouri Tigers (7-3) will travel to Norman Saturday for a high-stakes showdown against the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2). Oklahoma, fresh off a massive upset at Alabama and as a result back in the College Football Playoff picture has the added incentive of looking to avenge last season’s dramatic loss to the Tigers.
The game features a compelling matchup between Missouri’s FBS-leading rusher Ahmad Hardy and an Oklahoma defense that allows just 2.3 yards per carry. Nobody in the nation is better against the run. An additional key storyline is the potential return of Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula (ankle) which adds an experienced weapon to their offense as the Tigers look to play spoiler on the road.
Game Details and How to Watch No. 23 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
- Time: 3:30PM Eastern
- Site: Memorial Stadium
- City: Norman, OK
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for No. 23 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners (-258), Missouri Tigers (+210)
- Spread: Oklahoma -6.5 (-115)
- Total: 42.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach: Brent Venables
2025 Record: 8-2 (4-2)
Offense Ranking: 37
Defense Ranking: 5
Strength of Schedule: 13
Oklahoma enters Week 13 at 8-2 with a No. 12 SP+ ranking and is powered by one of the nation’s most dominant defenses. Under Brent Venables, the Sooners boast the No. 5 defense in SP+, holding opponents to just 4.30 yards per play (6th), ranking 2nd nationally in both success rate allowed (31.1%) and red zone points per scoring opportunity (3.23), while generating a ferocious 22.5% havoc rate (2nd). Offensively, new coordinator Ben Arbuckle has elevated the attack to 37th in SP+, but the unit has been plagued by inconsistency, ranking outside the top 80 in yards per rush, EPA/play, and explosiveness, while frequently stalling drives outside the red zone. Their resume includes a narrow win over Alabama (23-21) despite just a 5% postgame win expectancy, and a bounce-back performance at Tennessee after a humbling loss to Texas in Week 7. With Missouri and LSU remaining, Oklahoma has a 90% chance of finishing with at least nine wins and a 44% shot at hitting 10.
The Oklahoma Sooners Offense
Oklahoma’s offense has been serviceable but largely underwhelming relative to past Sooner teams, ranking 37th in SP+ and struggling with consistency and explosiveness. The Sooners rank just 90th in yards per play (5.39) and 83rd in EPA/play (0.03), with a pedestrian 42.5% rushing success rate (82nd) and 44.9% passing success rate (42nd). Their lack of explosiveness has been a major problem, ranking 104th in marginal explosiveness and 102nd in yards per successful play. Oklahoma frequently finds itself behind the sticks, ranking 112th in percentage of 3rd downs requiring 7+ yards and 127th in passing downs run rate, relying too heavily on inefficient downfield passing. Despite the inefficiency, they’ve shown flashes behind a modestly effective offensive line (62nd in pressure rate allowed) and are in position to make the CFP Playoff if they can win out.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Offense: QB John Mateer
John Mateer has held down the starting job all season, logging nine starts while compiling 2,087 passing yards with a modest 8-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio. His 63.9% completion rate and 11.3 yards per completion suggest an opportunistic downfield approach, but his 45.4% success rate and 7.1 ANY/A reflect some inconsistency moving the chains. Mateer’s ability as a dual-threat has been critical to the Sooners’ offensive rhythm, ranking second on the team with 419 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, and a team-best 31.4% first down conversion rate. He’s accounted for over 2,500 total yards and 15 touchdowns while also absorbing 17 sacks and taking hits on nearly 20% of pressured dropbacks. Mateer’s mobility and vertical passing have flashed promise, but he must improve his decision making down the stretch to unlock the full potential of Oklahoma’s offense.
The Oklahoma Sooners Defense
Oklahoma’s defense has been the backbone of their 8–2 season, currently ranking 5th nationally in SP+ and 2nd in the country in overall Havoc Rate at a disruptive 22.5%. The Sooners dominate the line of scrimmage, holding opponents to a paltry 3.5 yards per non-sack carry (5th), leading the nation with a 0.00 yards-before-contact rate, and ranking 2nd in rushing success rate allowed (28.6%). Brent Venables’ unit excels situationally, sitting Top 10 in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (45.5%), finishing drives (3.23 PPD allowed, 2nd), and third-down defense (31.1% conversion rate, 13th). Oklahoma creates pressure with a 36.8% rate (25th) and converts those into sacks at a 9.7% clip (3rd nationally), led by a defensive line Havoc Rate of 9.8% (4th). Despite their success, the Sooners have struggled slightly in defending explosiveness (109th in yards per successful play), though they’ve more than compensated by limiting efficiency and excelling in field position and drive-ending situations.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Defense: Edge R. Mason Thomas
Oklahoma edge rusher R. Mason Thomas has emerged as the Sooners’ most productive front-seven disruptor, tallying 6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFLs, and 12 total havoc plays over nine games while converting 21 pressures on 150 pass-rush snaps for a 14.0% pressure rate. He leads the team in sacks created (8) and ranks first in total pressures generated, showing consistency with a 2.48 average time to pressure and a 14.6% success rate on third down. Thomas also leads all Oklahoma defenders with 7 quarterback hits and added a forced fumble and defensive touchdown to his stat line, demonstrating playmaking across all phases. As a run defender, he holds a 77.8% tackle efficiency with 7 solo run stops, helping anchor the edge opposite Taylor Wein. Thomas is listed as “questionable” after missing last week’s contest against Alabama.
Missouri Tigers
Head Coach: Eli Drinkwitz
2025 Record: 8-1
Offense Ranking: 22
Defense Ranking: 16
Strength of Schedule: 19
Missouri enters the final stretch of the 2025 season with a 7–3 record and a strong SP+ ranking of 16th nationally, powered by a balanced profile: 22nd in Offensive SP+ and 16th in Defensive SP+. The Tigers boast one of the most efficient run games in the country (6.2 yards per carry, 8th nationally) and an elite 90.2% tackle success rate on defense (4th). Despite three SEC losses—including a narrow 3-point defeat to Alabama and a disappointing showing at Vanderbilt—Mizzou has outperformed SP+ projections in six of ten games and maintains strong advanced metrics in third down (12th offense, 13th defense) and standard downs efficiency. While their special teams rank 113th and turnover margin remains a mild concern (-2), Missouri is projected to finish 8–4 with an outside shot at nine wins if they can knock off Oklahoma or Arkansas to close the season.
The Missouri Tigers Offense
Missouri’s offense has delivered one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the SEC, ranking 8th nationally in both rushing success rate (50.4%) and yards per carry (6.2), powered by a Top 10 EPA per rush mark. Despite those ground-game credentials, the passing attack has been more modest, ranking 44th in passing success rate and 80th in yards per dropback (6.2), with relatively low explosiveness and deep passing output (just 13.0% of completions going 20+ yards, 110th nationally). Their offensive line has done an excellent job in pass protection, allowing pressure on just 1.8% of dropbacks (13th), and they’ve converted third downs at a Top 15 clip nationally (49.3%).
Missouri Player to Watch on Offense: RB Ahmad Hardy
Ahmad Hardy has emerged as Missouri’s workhorse back, racking up 1,346 yards and 15 touchdowns on 197 carries while averaging an elite 6.83 yards per rush. He’s maintained impressive consistency with a 51.8% success rate and has converted 34.0% of his runs into first downs, showing strong early-down reliability. Hardy blends vision and power with 4.15 yards after contact per carry and forces a missed tackle on nearly one out of every three runs. Despite the high workload, he’s kept mistakes to a minimum and is the engine of the Mizzou offense.
The Missouri Tigers Defense
Missouri’s defense has been one of the more credible units in the SEC, ranking 16th nationally in SP+ while posting a Top 15 mark in both yards per play (4.62) and success rate allowed (34.8%). Their front seven is particularly stout, ranking 13th in rushing success rate allowed and 10th in sack rate, while also generating a 17.3% havoc rate driven by a 7th-ranked DL havoc rate. On passing downs, the Tigers rank 8th in success rate allowed and have limited opponents to just 4.9 yards per dropback (9th nationally), showing excellent cohesion between pressure and coverage. Despite struggling in explosive play prevention and red-zone defense (84th in points per scoring opportunity), Missouri compensates with sound tackling (4th in tackle success rate) and a disruptive defensive front that consistently controls the line of scrimmage.
Missouri Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Zion Young
Zion Young has been a pressure maven off the edge, racking up 36 total tackles and leading the team with 17 havoc plays and 13.0 tackles for loss. He’s tallied 5.5 sacks and 24 pressures on 179 pass rushes, good for a 13.4% pressure rate and a credible 3.06-second time-to-pressure average. His physicality at the point of attack has produced 8 run stops and 2 forced fumbles, showcasing his impact as both a run defender and pass rusher. Opposing offenses have had to account for him on every snap, as he consistently creates problems on the perimeter and anchors a formidable Missouri defensive line.
Oklahoma and Missouri Team Stats, Betting Trends
- Missouri has won 5 of 7 games this season following a win
- Missouri is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games
- The Over is 7-3 in Missouri’s games this season
- The Over has cashed just twice in Oklahoma’s 10 games this season (2-8)
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Deion Burks UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards
We’ve seen Oklahoma slot WR Deion Burks get overinflated for the last two preseasons, as the OU hype machine hyped this milquetoast slot receiver into being their version of Makai Lemon. The much-anticipated breakout didn’t happen, with Arkansas transfer Isaiah Sategna taking over the WR1 role. I don’t think Oklahoma will be airing it out against a listless Mizzou offense that is relying heavily upon RBs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts with QB Beau Pribula considered “doubtful” to suit up. I think Burks goes Under his 47.5 Receiving Yards line for the 7th time in his last 8 games.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s game between Oklahoma and Missouri
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Oklahoma Sooners -6.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 42.5.
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