Its been a frustrating season for both Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels of North Carolina (2-5) and the Orange of Syracuse (3-5) under second year Head Coach Fran Brown.
Plenty of hype in Chapel Hill has been drowned out by calls for the legendary NFL head coach to walk away from what has been a first-year flop with the Tar Heels. Although they have lost four straight, the Heels were at least competitive in their last two games which is in stark contrast to their previous five games. In Syracuse, Brown was looking to build on the 10-3 record from his inaugural season and appeared headed to be doing just that with wins in three of the Orange’s first four games this season. Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli, though, was injured in Cuse’s Week 4 win over Clemson and the team has floundered since losing its last four…getting spanked in each.
Friday night pits Syracuse’s horrible offense against an improving UNC defense and UNC’s inept offense against a porous ‘Cuse defense.
Lets dive into the schools and look at each on both sides of the ball, a handful of players to watch, and also some key numbers.
Game Details and How to watch North Carolina at Syracuse
- Date: Friday, October 31, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: JMA Wireless Dome
- City: Syracuse, NY
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Game Odds for North Carolina at Syracuse
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: North Carolina Tar Heels (+114), Syracuse Orange (-135)
- Spread: Syracuse -2.5 (-110)
- Total: 45.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
North Carolina Tar Heels
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
2025 Record: 2-5
Offense Ranking: 120
Defense Ranking: 66
Strength of Schedule: 85
North Carolina has struggled to find consistency in 2025, sitting at 2–5 overall (0–3 ACC) with an SP+ ranking of 98th nationally and just 3.1% bowl odds. The offense has been one of the least productive in the FBS, ranking 120th in Offensive SP+ and averaging only 4.73 yards per play and 1.53 points per drive, while posting a meager 37% success rate. Defensively, the Tar Heels have been stronger at 66th in Defensive SP+, limiting opponents to 5.02 yards per play and showing notable red-zone fortitude (5th in RZ TD rate). Despite flashes of improvement stopping the run (12th in YPR - 3.7) UNC’s offensive inefficiency, poor third-down execution (32.6% conversion rate), and turnover issues continue to undermine Bill Belichick’s first year rebuild in Chapel Hill.
The North Carolina Tar Heels Offense
North Carolina’s offense has been one of the worst in the P4, ranking 120th in Offensive SP+ and posting a 37.0% success rate (123rd). The Tar Heels average just 4.73 yards per play (128th) and 1.53 points per drive (122nd), struggling both on the ground (4.3 yards per rush) and through the air (5.0 yards per dropback) behind an offensive line that allows pressure on 3.3% of snaps (107th). Despite solid ball control metrics, their inability to generate explosive plays (3.6% of snaps gaining 20+ yards, 3rd-worst in FBS) and a poor 52.4% red zone touchdown rate have limited scoring opportunities. The offense’s stagnant pace and inefficiency on standard downs (42.0% SD success rate, 128th nationally) have left them reliant on short fields and inconsistent quarterback play to stay competitive.
UNC Player to Watch on Offense: WR Jordan Shipp
Jordan Shipp has emerged as North Carolina’s most reliable target, leading the team with 40 targets, 29 receptions, 320 yards, and 2 touchdowns while posting a rock solid 72.5% catch rate. He averages 11.0 yards per catch and 8.0 yards per target, maintaining a 53.7% success rate and converting over half of his catches into first downs. Shipp has been highly efficient working from the slot (59% of his receptions) while also making plays on intermediate and deep routes (64% of targets beyond 10 air yards). His steady hands (3.1% drop rate) and consistent route-running presence make him a critical chain-mover for the Tar Heels’ sputtering passing game.
The North Carolina Tar Heels Defense
North Carolina’s defense has been the steadier unit, ranking 66th in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 5.02 yards per play, a Top 35 national figure. The Tar Heels excel in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on only 38.5% of opponent trips (No. 5 nationally), and have been particularly strong against the run, limiting foes to 3.7 yards per carry (12th) and a 40.4% rushing success rate. Their pass defense has been more uneven, ranking 57th in passing success rate allowed, but benefits from an aggressive man-heavy approach (46.4% man coverage rate, 30th nationally) that limits big plays (12.0% completions of 20+ yards allowed = 23rd). While their pressure rate (24.7%) ranks among the nation’s lowest, DC Steve Belichick’s group compensates with disciplined tackling (86.6% tackle success rate) and situational toughness that keeps the defense competitive even as the offense struggles.
UNC Player to Watch on Defense: LB Andrew Simpson
Linebacker Andrew Simpson has been the centerpiece of North Carolina’s defense, leading the team with 39 tackles, including 24 solo stops, and a stellar 88.6% tackle success rate. His disruptive presence is reflected in nine havoc plays, highlighted by 5.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, and a 1.0 interception, showcasing his ability to impact all phases of the game. As a pass rusher, Simpson generates pressure on 22.9% of blitz snaps, one of the highest rates on the team, while maintaining excellent pursuit efficiency with a 2.53-second time to first pressure. In coverage, he’s been equally impressive allowing only 2 completions on 5 targets (40%) with a 10.7 defensive QBR, the best among Tar Heel linebackers.
Syracuse Orange
Head Coach: Fran Brown
2025 Record: 3-5
Offense Ranking: 80
Defense Ranking: 95
Strength of Schedule: 33
Syracuse is 3-5 (1-4 ACC) with an SP+ rank of 91st and slim bowl odds (3.8%), reflecting a team that’s competitive but below average overall. Offensively they play fast (73.0 plays/gm, 24.3 sec/play) yet produce modest efficiency with a 41.6% success rate (86th), 5.46 yards/play (89th), and 1.91 points/drive (97th), with red-zone TDs at just 56.3% (100th) and a -7 turnover margin dragging results. Defensively, the Orange allow a 46.0% success rate (120th), 6.06 yards/play (109th) and generate limited pressure (sack rate 4.8%, 102nd), leading to 2.31 points/drive (98th) and struggles on standard downs (SD success allowed 52.7%, 124th). The remaining slate offers two winnable games (favored vs. North Carolina and Boston College) but heavy underdog spots at Miami and Notre Dame, making a 4–6 win finish the most likely outcome.
The Syracuse Orange Offense
Under second-year head coach Fran Brown, Syracuse’s offense has been fast-paced but inconsistent after losing QB Steven Angeli to injury, ranking 80th in Offensive SP+ while averaging 5.46 yards per play and 1.91 points per drive. The Orange move quickly (73.0 plays per game, 14th nationally in tempo) but rank only 86th in success rate (41.6%) and 100th in red-zone TD rate (56.3%), reflecting missed scoring opportunities. Their ground game has lagged with just 4.2 yards per carry and a 41.4% rushing success rate (95th), forcing frequent reliance on the pass, where they rank 31st in completions of 20+ yards (18.9%) but still post modest efficiency (6.5 yards/dropback, 75th). Despite an improved offensive line allowing pressure on only 2.6% of dropbacks, turnovers (16 total, 128th) and situational struggles on third downs (35.4% conversion rate, 112th) have kept the unit from capitalizing on its tempo advantage.
Syracuse Player to Watch on Offense: WR Darrell Gill
Darrell Gill Jr. has emerged as Syracuse’s premier vertical threat, leading the team with 455 yards and five touchdowns on 50 targets. Though his 52.0% catch rate shows some inconsistency, Gill averages an explosive 17.5 yards per reception and 9.1 yards per target, with nearly half of his routes coming on intermediate or deep patterns (62% combined). His ability to stretch defenses is reinforced by an 18.2 average air yards per target and a strong 73.1% first-down rate per reception, underscoring his big-play efficiency. Lining up primarily out wide (65%) but also in the slot (15%), Gill provides a reliable downfield option capable of flipping field position for this stagnant Orange passing attack.
The Syracuse Orange Defense
Syracuse’s defense has regressed sharply in 2025, ranking 95th in Defensive SP+ while surrendering 6.06 yards per play and a 46.0% success rate (120th nationally). The Orange have struggled to stop the run (5.5 yards per carry allowed, 123rd; 47.6% rushing success rate, 124th) and have been poor in the red zone, giving up touchdowns on 61.3% of trips with 4.57 points per scoring opportunity. Their pass rush has been among the nation’s least effective, producing just a 4.8% sack rate (102nd) and 28.5% pressure rate (106th), leading to limited disruption and only a 15.3% havoc rate. While the secondary forces some incompletions (35.2% PD-to-INC rate, 46th), the defense’s overall inefficiency on standard downs (52.7% allowed) and lack of front-seven penetration have kept Syracuse from getting consistent stops against ACC competition.
Syracuse Player to Watch on Defense: DT Kevin Jobity Jr.
Defensive tackle Kevin Jobity Jr. has been Syracuse’s most disruptive linemen in 2025, posting 6.0 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, and 6.0 total havoc plays through eight games. His 100% tackle rate and 76.5% run-stop involvement, anchoring a front that’s struggled to establish an identity. As a pass rusher, Jobity has generated steady interior pressure with 12 total pressures on 159 rushes (a 7.5% pressure rate) and an average time-to-pressure of 2.52 seconds. His blend of burst and power has made him a rare defensive tackle capable of both collapsing pockets and finishing plays, providing essential pass-rush production from the interior for an underwhelming defense.
UNC at Syracuse team stats, betting trends
- Syracuse is 3-4-1 ATS this season
- UNC is 4-3 ATS this season
- The Game Total OVER has cashed 1 time in UNC games this season (1-5-1)
- The Game Total OVER has cashed 4 times in Syracuse games this season (4-4)
- North Carolina’s last 3 road games have stayed UNDER the Total
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Syracuse RB Yasin Willis UNDER 68.5 Rushing Yards
With North Carolina struggling in their first (and maybe only) year under the tutelage of immortal HC Bill Belichick, the one thing the Tarheels have done well is stop the run, ranking 12th in YPR (3.7) and 19th in yards after contact allowed (2.19). Syracuse is known for being one of the most pass-heavy teams in the country, running the ball just 18% of the time on passing downs (3rd least in FBS). Cuse RB Yasin Willis has cleared his 68.5 Rushing Yards line in just once in his last three games, and faces a UNC D that is allowing a 66% completion rate and ranks 72nd in EPA/Dropback. I expect Syracuse to throw the ball early and often, which means I’m backing RB Willis to go Under 68.5 Rushing Yards.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between North Carolina and Syracuse
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Syracuse Orange at -1.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 46.5.
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